Toronto weather is basically a chaotic coin toss this week. If you stepped outside today, Tuesday, January 13, 2026, you probably felt that weird, damp warmth that makes you regret wearing a heavy parka. It’s 4°C. Honestly, that’s unusually balmy for mid-January. But don't let the slush fool you. The sky is a heavy, bruised grey, and Environment Canada is already tracking a massive shift that’s going to turn the city into a literal skating rink by Thursday.
We're looking at a classic Southern Ontario "flash freeze" scenario.
The 10-day forecast for Toronto Canada shows a dramatic drop from these plus-degree afternoon highs down into the double-digit negatives within 48 hours. By Wednesday night, we aren't just losing the warmth; we're losing the sun entirely as a system of mixed rain and snow sweeps through the GTA. If you've got evening plans at Hugh’s Room for the January Blues or the IYF New Year’s Festival later this week, you’re going to need more than just a light coat.
The Mid-Week Slump: From Slush to Solid Ice
The real story starts Wednesday, Jan 14. We’ll see a high of 3°C, but that’s the peak. As the sun sets at 5:03 PM, the temperature is going to crater. We're talking about a low of -12°C overnight.
Think about that.
That is a 15-degree swing in less than twelve hours. Any rain that falls during the day is going to freeze solid on the pavement. Salt trucks will be out, but the wind chill is expected to make it feel like -18 or -20 by the time commuters are heading to Union Station on Thursday morning. Thursday itself stays brutal, with a high of only -8°C. It's the kind of cold that bites your face the second you round a corner on Bay Street.
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What the Next 10 Days Look Like (At a Glance)
- Tuesday, Jan 13: High of 4°C. Cloudy with a late afternoon chance of rain or snow.
- Wednesday, Jan 14: High of 3°C. Rain/snow mix turning to flurries. Overnight low hits -12°C.
- Thursday, Jan 15: Bitterly cold. High of -8°C. Mostly sunny but deceptive.
- Friday, Jan 16: Clouds return. High of -2°C. Snow starts late.
- Saturday, Jan 17: Snow day? High of -2°C with a 60% chance of steady accumulation.
- Sunday, Jan 18: Lingering flurries. High of -5°C.
- Monday, Jan 19 – Wednesday, Jan 21: A slight recovery. We hover between -1°C and -3°C. Grey skies, standard Toronto winter gloom.
- Late Next Week: Forecast models suggest another cold snap heading into the final weekend of the month.
Why the Jet Stream is Messing with Your Weekend
Meteorologists at Pearson International and the University of Toronto’s climate labs often talk about "zonal flow" versus "meridional flow." Right now, the jet stream is looping like a rollercoaster. This explains why we went from a frigid New Year's Day to this weirdly warm Tuesday.
When the jet stream dips south, it drags the Arctic air with it. That’s what’s happening Wednesday night. It’s not just "cold"—it’s a polar air mass settling over the Great Lakes. Because Lake Ontario is still relatively "warm" (around 3°C according to recent buoy data), that cold air creates lake-effect flurries. You might see a dusting in North York while downtown gets nothing, or vice versa. It’s localized and annoying.
Surviving the Saturday Snowfall
Saturday, January 17, is the day to watch. Currently, the probability of snow is sitting at 60%. We aren't looking at a "Snowmageddon" situation, but 5 to 10 centimeters isn't out of the question. For those heading to the SVI Retro Malanka celebration on Spadina, travel might be a bit of a nightmare.
Driving on the Don Valley Parkway when it’s -2°C and snowing is a special kind of hell. The temperature is just warm enough for the snow to be heavy and wet, but cold enough for the ground to stay slick. Basically, it’s the worst of both worlds.
Practical Insights for the Week Ahead
The weather in Toronto is never just about the number on the screen. It's about the wind. The "felt" temperature on Thursday will be significantly lower than the actual -8°C because of those 40 km/h gusts coming off the water.
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- Check your tires now. If you haven't swapped to winters yet (which, honestly, why?), today is your last chance before the ice hits.
- Layers are non-negotiable. Wednesday starts wet and ends freezing. A moisture-wicking base layer will keep you from getting chilled when that 3 PM rain turns into a 6 PM blizzard.
- Salt your walk early. If you wait until Thursday morning to clear your driveway, you’ll be chipping away at solid ice. Get the salt down Wednesday evening before the temperature drops below zero.
- Watch the AQI. Despite the cold, Toronto has been seeing "Moderate" air quality levels lately. If you have asthma or sensitive lungs, the combination of cold, dry air and urban pollutants can be a literal pain.
The 10-day forecast for Toronto Canada shows that winter is finally deciding to show its teeth. Stay dry through Tuesday, stay inside on Thursday, and maybe keep the shovel handy for Saturday.
Take a moment tonight to check the seals on your windows and doors; that Thursday wind is going to find every gap in your insulation. If you're commuting, plan for an extra 20 minutes on the TTC or GO Transit starting Wednesday evening, as "signal issues" are a near-certainty when the mercury drops this fast.