You’ve heard it a million times: Melbourne has four seasons in a day. It’s a cliché because it’s true. Honestly, checking the 10 day melbourne weather forecast vic is basically like trying to predict which way a startled cat is going to jump. One minute you’re hunting for shade at the Australian Open, and the next, you’re sprinting for a Myer entrance because the sky just opened up.
January 2026 is proving to be no different. If you’re looking at the current stretch, we’re seeing a classic Victorian summer tug-of-war.
The Week Ahead: Sun, Clouds, and the Occasional "Wait, What?"
Right now, as of Monday, January 19, things are looking pretty mild for a Melbourne summer. We’re sitting at a comfortable 81°F (about 27°C) with some stubborn cloud cover. But don’t let the "mostly cloudy" label fool you. The UV index is still hitting a 6 today, and it’s headed toward a "please wear a hat or you’ll regret it" level of 10 by tomorrow.
Here is how the next few days are actually looking on the ground:
- Tuesday, Jan 20: A gorgeous 76°F (24.5°C) and sunny. This is peak Melbourne. It’s the kind of day where the Botanical Gardens are packed and everyone is pretending they don't have emails to answer.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: Temps dip slightly to 71°F (21.6°C). We might see some light rain overnight, with a 40% chance of a drizzle.
- Thursday, Jan 22: The "cool" change hits properly. A high of 65°F (18.3°C). Yes, in the middle of January. You’ll definitely want a light jacket if you're out near the Yarra.
- The Saturday Spike (Jan 24): This is the one to watch. The forecast is screaming a high of 93°F (33.9°C).
It’s that 93°F Saturday that really catches the eye. We go from a crisp 65°F on Thursday to a furnace-blast Saturday. That’s a 28-degree swing in 48 hours. Welcome to Victoria.
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Why the Melbourne Forecast is So Moody
Most people think it’s just bad luck. It’s actually geography. Melbourne sits right on the edge of the Southern Ocean, but it also has the massive, hot Australian interior to its north.
When the wind comes from the north? You get the Saturday sizzle—hot, dry air coming off the desert. When it swings south? You get the Thursday chill—cold air straight from the Antarctic waters. The 10 day melbourne weather forecast vic is essentially a record of which side is winning the atmospheric arm wrestle at any given moment.
The UV Factor (The Silent Scorcher)
A lot of tourists get caught out by this. They see a forecast of 76°F and think, "Oh, that’s pleasant." But the UV index in Victoria during January is brutal. We are looking at index levels of 9 and 10 for most of this week. That means you can get toasted in about 15 minutes if you aren't careful.
Even on Wednesday, when it’s only 71°F, the UV is at a 9. Don’t trust the temperature; trust the sun’s ability to find any patch of skin you forgot to cover.
Survival Tips for the Next 10 Days
If you're planning a trip down to the Great Ocean Road or just hanging around the CBD, you've gotta be strategic.
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Basically, the "Melbourne Uniform" exists for a reason. You need layers. A t-shirt for the afternoon, a hoodie for the evening, and maybe a light spray jacket in the bag just in case that 15% rain chance decides to become 100% while you're waiting for a tram.
- Saturday is beach day, but go early. With 93°F on the cards, St Kilda and Brighton will be absolute zoos by 11:00 AM.
- Thursday is for the museums. When the temp drops to 65°F and the wind kicks up to 17 mph from the south, you won't want to be outdoors at a rooftop bar. Head to the NGV or the Melbourne Museum instead.
- Check the wind direction. If the forecast says "North," it’s going to be dry and dusty. If it says "Southwest," expect that salty, chilly breeze.
Looking Further Out: Late January
As we head toward Australia Day (Monday, Jan 26), the forecast is settling back into the low 80s (around 27-28°C). It looks like a fairly stable run for the public holiday, though there is a 30% chance of some rain Monday night.
Tuesday, Jan 27 and Wednesday, Jan 28 bring a higher chance of showers—around 35%. It’s not a washout, but it’s definitely "carry an umbrella" weather.
Kinda funny how we spend all year waiting for summer, and then when it gets here, we spend half the time complaining it’s too hot and the other half complaining the "cool change" was too cold. But that’s the charm of the place, right?
Actionable Insight for Melburnians and Visitors:
Keep a close eye on the wind speeds for Thursday. We're looking at 17 mph gusts from the south. If you’re planning on being near the water, it’s going to feel significantly colder than the 65°F on the thermometer. Layer up, stay hydrated for that Saturday spike, and always—always—reapply that SPF 50+ every couple of hours, regardless of whether you see clouds or not.