You've probably seen the postcards of palm trees and sun-drenched beaches. But honestly, if you're looking at the 10 day weather forecast st augustine fl right now, specifically for mid-to-late January 2026, you might be in for a bit of a shock.
Florida isn't always a tropical oven.
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Starting today, Sunday, January 18, the "Oldest City" is getting a reality check. We're talking about a massive temperature drop that would make a local reach for their heaviest puffer jacket while a tourist from Chicago is still trying to wear shorts. It's a weird, transitional week where the thermometer is basically doing parkour.
The Immediate Outlook: A Literal Cold Front
Let’s look at the numbers because they’re pretty wild for a state known for oranges. Today, Sunday, we're seeing highs struggle to hit 59°F. But that's not the story. The story is the rain—about a 90% to 100% chance—and northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph.
If you're heading to the CPS Chowder Festival today, keep your hood up. That chowder is going to be a necessity, not just a treat.
Tonight is when things get real. We are looking at a low of 34°F.
Yes, 34.
There is a legitimate frost warning for the early morning hours of Monday, January 19. If you left your tropical plants out on the patio, you've probably already made a mistake.
What the Next Week Actually Looks Like
The 10-day trend shows a classic Florida "rebound." After we survive the frost on Monday morning, the sun comes out in full force.
- Monday (MLK Day): High of 52°F, Low of 38°F. Sunny but crisp. The Annual Silent March for Dr. Martin Luther King will be chilly, so layer up.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Slightly warmer at 54°F. Still sunny.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: This is the pivot point. The high jumps to 65°F.
- Thursday & Friday: We hover in the mid-60s, but the humidity starts creeping back in. Expect a 30% to 40% chance of showers as the wind shifts back to the northeast.
By the time we hit next weekend, Saturday, January 24, we are looking at a high of 75°F or even 80°F according to some models. That is a nearly 50-degree swing in "feels like" temperature from the Monday morning frost.
Basically, the 10 day weather forecast st augustine fl is telling you to pack everything from a winter coat to a swimsuit.
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Why St. Augustine Weather Is So Deceptive
A lot of people check the forecast and see "65 degrees" and think it’s perfect beach weather. It isn't. Not here. Not in January.
The Atlantic Ocean is sitting at about 67°F right now. When that cool sea breeze hits the humid land air, it creates a damp chill that gets right into your bones. It’s a "wet cold."
I’ve seen people come down from New York and laugh at the locals in scarves, only to find themselves at a CVS an hour later buying a fleece because that 50-degree wind off Matanzas Bay is no joke.
The Microclimate Factor
St. Augustine has these weird little microclimates.
If you’re standing in the middle of St. George Street, the buildings block the wind and it feels 10 degrees warmer. But the moment you walk out onto the Castillo de San Marcos green or the City Dock, the wind treats you like a personal enemy.
Always check the wind speed. In the current 10 day weather forecast st augustine fl, we see consistent winds between 10 and 20 mph. That turns a 60-degree day into a 52-degree day real fast.
Navigating the 10-Day Events Schedule
Despite the chill, the city doesn't stop. You just have to plan around the "windows."
The Nights of Lights are still running through January 31. This is actually the best time to see them. The crowds have thinned out since the holidays, and the crisp air makes the millions of white lights look even sharper. Just grab a hot cider from one of the vendors near the Plaza de la Constitución.
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If you’re here for the St. Augustine Film Festival, you're in luck. Most of that is indoors at Flagler College or the Corazon. It’s the perfect "bad weather" activity.
For the outdoor stuff, like the South Carolina Ballet at the amphitheater or the River City Rhythm Kings on Saturday the 24th, you’re hitting that 75-degree sweet spot. That’s your window for the "Florida experience."
Real Talk on Rain
January is historically one of our drier months, but this 10-day stretch is bucking the trend.
We have a 90% chance today, followed by scattered 30% chances throughout the middle of next week. In Florida, a 30% chance usually means a 20-minute downpour followed by steam. It’s rarely a total washout, except for today.
Today is a washout.
Actionable Tips for This Forecast
If you are physically in St. Augustine or arriving this week, here is how you handle this specific 10-day window:
- Drip your pipes tonight: If you're in an older historic home near downtown, that 34°F low is close enough to freezing to be annoying.
- The "Three Layer" Rule: You need a base layer (t-shirt), a thermal layer (sweater), and a windbreaker. The windbreaker is the most important part because of the coastal gusts.
- Book Indoor Tours Early: If you see rain in the forecast for Thursday or Friday, book your Old Jail or Lightner Museum tickets now. Everyone else will have the same idea.
- Beach Walks vs. Beach Swims: Go to Anastasia State Park on Wednesday or Saturday. The air will be beautiful, but the water is still "cold-stunned sea turtle" temperature. Don't go in unless you have a wetsuit.
- Check the Tide: High tide combined with those 30 mph gusts today can cause minor street flooding near the Bayfront. Watch where you park your car.
The 10 day weather forecast st augustine fl shows a city in transition. We are moving from a literal frost to a spring-like 80 degrees in a matter of days. It's erratic, it's confusing, and honestly, it’s just a typical January on the First Coast.
Monitor the evening updates, as these cold fronts often move faster or slower than the initial models suggest. If the wind stays north longer than expected, those mid-week 60s might stay in the 50s. Be ready for anything, and keep that chowder close.
Pro Tip: If you're planning to visit the Castillo de San Marcos this week, try to go between 1:00 PM and 3:00 PM on Tuesday or Wednesday. The stone walls of the fort absorb the midday sun and radiate heat, making it much more comfortable than a morning visit when the coquina is still ice-cold.