Honestly, Knoxville weather in January is a total coin toss. One minute you're scraping frost off your windshield at 7:00 AM, and by lunchtime, you're wondering if you actually needed that heavy parka. If you’re looking at a 14 day forecast Knoxville right now, you’ve probably noticed things are getting a bit "interesting."
As of Thursday, January 15, 2026, we are sitting in a chilly pocket. It’s 30°F outside, but with that northwest wind kicking at 10 mph, it feels like 21°F. It’s the kind of cold that bites.
The Near-Term Rollercoaster
Tomorrow, Friday the 16th, is going to be a mess. We’re looking at a high of 46°F, which sounds okay, right? Wrong. The humidity is hanging around 39%, and we’ve got a 65% chance of rain moving in by nightfall. The wind is shifting southwest and picking up speed to about 18 mph. Basically, it’s going to be wet, windy, and dreary.
Saturday and Sunday (Jan 17–18) offer a slight reprieve with some "partly sunny" peeks, but don't let the sun fool you. Highs will hover between 36°F and 45°F. If you’re heading down to Market Square for the Winter Farmers Market on Saturday morning, definitely layer up. It's going to be breezy.
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Looking Into Next Week
The middle of the 14 day stretch is where it gets weirdly dry and cold.
- Monday, Jan 19: Mostly sunny, high of 38°F.
- Tuesday, Jan 20: Bright sun, but a low of 17°F. Yes, 17.
- Wednesday, Jan 21: We bounce back to 45°F, but it'll be cloudy and windy again.
This "see-saw" effect is classic East Tennessee. We’re tucked into the Great Appalachian Valley, which basically means the mountains to our east and the plateau to our west act like giant bumpers for weather systems. Sometimes they shield us; sometimes they trap the cold air right on top of us like a lid on a pot.
Why the 14 Day Forecast Knoxville Often Changes
If you’ve lived here long enough, you know that a 14-day outlook is more of a "suggestion" than a promise. Meteorologists at the Morristown NWS office often talk about the Ridge-and-Valley topography. This unique geography can weaken cold fronts coming from the north, but it also means moisture from the Gulf can get stuck here, leading to those gray, drizzly weeks we all love to hate.
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What’s happening in late January?
By the time we hit the weekend of January 24–25, the rain returns. Saturday the 24th has a 65% chance of rain with a high of 52°F. Then, Sunday night, we might see a "rain and snow" mix as the temperature drops back toward 35°F.
If you're planning to see MJ: The Musical at the Tennessee Theatre that weekend, keep an umbrella in the car. It’s looking soggy.
Surviving the Knoxville Winter
Since the humidity stays relatively high—often around 60% to 70% during these rainy stretches—the cold feels "wetter" and heavier than a dry desert cold.
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- The "Scruffy City" Layering Technique: Start with a moisture-wicking base. Add a fleece. Finish with a windbreaker or waterproof shell. You’ll likely shed the shell by 2:00 PM and put it back on by 5:30 PM.
- Watch the Bridges: Knoxville has plenty of them. Even when the roads are just wet, the bridges over the Tennessee River or I-40 can develop black ice when those nighttime lows hit the 20s.
- Indoor Backups: If the forecast looks like trash, places like the Knoxville Museum of Art or the East Tennessee History Center are solid bets for staying dry.
The big takeaway? Don't trust a single sunny day to stay that way. The 14 day forecast Knoxville shows a lot of movement between freezing nights and mild, rainy afternoons.
Keep your tires checked—cold snaps tank your tire pressure—and maybe keep a pair of gloves in the glovebox. You're going to need them for those 17°F mornings next week.
Actionable Next Steps: Check your antifreeze levels before Tuesday’s 17°F low. If you have outdoor plants that aren't hardy, Monday night is the time to bring them in or cover them. Also, keep an eye on Friday night's rain totals if you live in a low-lying area prone to quick drainage issues.