If you've lived in Rochester for more than five minutes, you know the drill. You wake up, look out the window at a grey sky that hasn't changed since November, and wonder if today is the day the wind finally blows you across the Genesee River. Honestly, checking the 14 day weather forecast Rochester NY is basically a local pastime, right up there with arguing about who has the best meat sauce.
But looking at the numbers for late January 2026, things are getting kinda weird. We just coasted through a "January Thaw" that felt more like a rainy April, but the atmosphere is finally deciding to act its age.
The Immediate Outlook: Shovels at the Ready
Right now, as of January 18, we’re sitting in that classic Rochester "grey zone."
Today is looking like a steady stream of snow showers with a high of only 24°F. If you’re heading out, that southwest wind at 12 mph is going to make it feel a lot sharper than the thermometer says. Tonight won't offer much relief either, dropping down to a chilly 19°F.
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Monday, January 19, brings a bit more bite. We’re looking at more snow showers and a high of 26°F, but the real story is the wind. It’s expected to crank up to 23 mph. That’s enough to make any salt on the roads feel like a suggestion rather than a solution.
By Tuesday, January 20, the temperature takes a dive. We're talking a high of only 17°F. It’s the kind of cold that makes your car make sounds it definitely shouldn’t.
Mid-Week "Warmth" and the Return of the Lake Effect
Wednesday, January 21, offers a brief, almost insulting "warm-up" to 31°F. It’s barely a reprieve before we settle back into the 20s for the rest of the week.
- Thursday, Jan 22: Snow showers continue, high of 23°F.
- Friday, Jan 23: Much of the same, with a high around 25°F.
The lake effect machine is really the wild card here. While the synoptic systems—the big storms the TV people track days in advance—are looking fairly organized, Lake Ontario is still wide open and relatively warm. When that cold air from the north-northwest hits the water, it’s going to dump localized bands of snow that the general forecast often misses.
Looking Toward Next Week: The Deep Freeze
If you were hoping for a late-month break, I’ve got some bad news. The second half of this 14-day stretch is trending even colder.
By Sunday, January 25, we’re looking at a high of just 13°F. That’s not a typo. Monday and Tuesday (Jan 26-27) aren't much better, with highs in the teens and lows dipping into the single digits—9°F or lower if the clouds actually break.
Honestly, it’s the kind of weather where you just stay inside and eat garbage plates.
What This Means for Your Routine
The biggest mistake people make with a 14 day weather forecast Rochester NY is assuming it’s set in stone. It’s more of a vibe check.
- Watch the Wind: The temps might say 20°F, but with 15-20 mph gusts coming off the lake, your face will feel like it’s being exfoliated by ice cubes.
- Travel Timing: Tuesday the 20th and Sunday the 25th look like the biggest "stay home if you can" days due to the combination of low visibility and falling temps.
- Home Prep: If your pipes are prone to freezing, that Jan 25-27 window is when you’ll want to leave the faucets dripping.
We’ve seen worse, sure. But after that mild start to the month, this shift back to "real" winter is going to feel like a punch to the gut. Basically, keep the heavy coat by the door and don't put the shovel away just yet. Winter in the 585 is finally showing up for real.
Actionable Next Steps:
Check your car's tire pressure tonight, as the sudden drop to 17°F on Tuesday will likely trigger your "low air" light. Ensure your heating system's intake and exhaust vents are clear of any drifting snow from the Monday wind gusts to prevent carbon monoxide buildup or furnace lockouts.