If you’re staring at a screen trying to decipher the 15 day forecast flagstaff az, honestly, you aren’t alone. Flagstaff is a moody place. One minute you’re basking in high-altitude sunshine that feels like a warm hug, and the next, a northeast wind is cutting through your "winter" jacket like it's made of tissue paper.
Right now, we're looking at a stretch that’s surprisingly dry but still plenty crisp. For anyone heading up the mountain this week, the vibe is basically "high desert winter." We’ve got clear skies and sun, but don't let those yellow icons fool you into thinking it's t-shirt weather.
The Reality of the Current 15 Day Forecast Flagstaff AZ
Let's look at the actual numbers. For Friday, January 16, 2026, we’re hitting a high of 49°F with a low of 29°F. It sounds mild-ish, right? Wrong. The wind is coming in from the northeast at 13 mph, which makes that 49 degrees feel a whole lot sharper.
Saturday is even more of a reality check. The high drops to 44°F, and the wind picks up to 15 mph. If you’re planning on being outdoors, that’s the kind of day where your nose starts running the second you step out of the car.
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What the next two weeks look like
Honestly, the "Big Snow" everyone waits for in January is playing hard to get. Here is the breakdown of what the atmosphere is actually doing:
- The Immediate Window: Friday through Tuesday (Jan 16–Jan 20) is dominated by sun. Highs are bouncing between 44°F and 54°F.
- The Humidity Factor: We’re seeing levels as low as 25% to 30%. You’ll want to double up on the lip balm and water. High altitude + low humidity = a guaranteed headache if you aren't careful.
- The Shift: Things start getting "cloudy with a chance of whatever" around Thursday, January 22. There's a 10% chance of snow that night, which isn't much, but it marks a change in the pattern.
- The 10-Day Outlook: By Sunday, January 25, we’re looking at a 20% chance of snow with a high of 47°F.
Why 7,000 Feet Changes Everything
Most people coming up from Phoenix or Vegas see a 50-degree forecast and think "light sweater." That is a massive mistake. At 7,000 feet, the sun is intense—it literally burns faster—but the second you step into the shade or the sun dips behind a mountain, the temperature feels like it drops 20 degrees instantly.
The air is thin. It doesn't hold heat.
If you're looking at the 15 day forecast flagstaff az and planning a trip to Arizona Snowbowl, you should know that even with clear skies, the mountain creates its own microclimate. Currently, the base depth is sitting around 34 to 36 inches. Since there’s no major accumulation expected in the next few days, they’ll be relying on that machine-groomed pack. It’s fast, it’s firm, and it’s very "Arizona winter."
Understanding the "Feels Like"
The current "feels like" temperature for a clear night in Flagstaff is often 5 to 10 degrees lower than the actual reading. Tonight, for example, it’s 36°F but feels like 31°F. That 5-degree gap is the difference between a brisk walk and shivering.
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Staying Safe When the Mercury Drops
Look, Flagstaff is beautiful, but the weather can be a bit of a jerk if you aren't prepared. Even with a dry forecast, you’ve gotta pack like a storm is coming.
- The Three-Layer Rule: A base layer to wick sweat (yes, you’ll sweat in the sun), a middle insulating layer (fleece is king), and a wind-blocking outer shell.
- Hydration is Non-Negotiable: People forget to drink water when it’s cold. Don't be that person. The "15 day forecast flagstaff az" shows very low humidity, which dries you out faster than a desert summer.
- Sunscreen is for Winter Too: The sun reflects off any patches of snow and the thin atmosphere offers less protection. You will get a "goggle tan" (aka a sunburn) even if it's 40 degrees out.
Driving Conditions
Right now, the roads are clear. I-17 and I-40 are behaving. But always keep an eye on those northeast winds. High-profile vehicles (SUVs, trucks with trailers) can get pushed around a bit when those 15 mph gusts hit the open stretches near Anderson Mesa.
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Actionable Tips for Your Flagstaff Trip
Don't just look at the app and hope for the best. If you're heading up during this 15-day window, do these three things:
- Download the AZ 511 App: Even if the sky is blue, black ice is a thing on the shaded turns of Highway 180.
- Check the Wind Direction: If the forecast says "Northeast," the wind is coming off the peaks. It's going to be colder than the number suggests.
- Pack an Emergency Kit: Always have blankets, extra water, and a portable charger in the car. If the 20% chance of snow on the 25th turns into a 60% surprise, you'll be glad you have them.
Basically, enjoy the sun while it lasts, but keep your boots by the door. Flagstaff weather changes faster than a local's opinion on tourist traffic. Keep an eye on the 15 day forecast flagstaff az as we get closer to that January 22nd shift, as that's when the "real" winter might finally decide to show up again.