Honestly, if you look back at the 2013 NBA draft projections, it feels like a fever dream. You’ve got experts scratching their heads, teams panicking, and a consensus that the talent pool was basically as shallow as a backyard kiddie pool. People were calling it the "weakest draft in living memory."
They weren't entirely wrong about the top end. But they were hilariously wrong about the rest.
The Chaos at Number One
Going into June 2013, nobody knew what the Cleveland Cavaliers were going to do. Usually, by draft week, there’s a guy. In 2012, it was Anthony Davis. In 2014, the hype for Andrew Wiggins was through the roof. But in 2013? It was a mess.
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Nerlens Noel was the presumptive favorite for months. He was this pogo-stick shot-blocker from Kentucky who looked like the next Tyson Chandler. Then he tore his ACL in February against Florida. Suddenly, the "safe" pick had a surgical scar and a giant question mark over his durability.
Then you had Alex Len. A 7-footer from Maryland with "tools." People love tools. Mock drafts started sliding him into that top spot because, well, someone had to go first. But when David Stern walked up to the podium and announced Anthony Bennett from UNLV, the room went silent. Then it exploded.
Bennett wasn't even in the conversation for number one in most 2013 NBA draft projections. He was a "tweener"—too small for a power forward, too slow for a small forward. The Cavs thought they were getting a versatile scorer who could help them win immediately. Instead, they got a guy who didn't make a field goal until his fifth NBA game.
Why the Experts Missed Giannis
If you want to see how "projection" is more of an art than a science, look at Giannis Antetokounmpo. In 2013, he was "Giannis Adetokunbo," a skinny kid playing in the Greek second division.
Scouts saw the length. They saw the 7'3" wingspan. But the competition he was playing against was basically YMCA level compared to the NBA. The reports back then were wild. They called him a "taller Scottie Pippen" or a "taller Jeremy Lin." Talk about a range of outcomes.
Most 2013 NBA draft projections had him going in the late teens or even the second round. The Milwaukee Bucks took a massive swing at 15. Fourteen teams looked at the same tape and thought, "Nah, too risky."
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The Fall of the "Sure Things"
It wasn't just Bennett. The whole top ten was a minefield.
Ben McLemore was supposed to be the next great shooting guard. He had the "JR Smith ceiling" with better athleticism. He fell to 7. Otto Porter Jr. was the "safe" 3-and-D wing at 3. He turned out fine, but not "top three pick" fine.
Then there’s Rudy Gobert. He was a giant with record-breaking measurements at the combine. His 7'8.5" wingspan was the stuff of legends. Yet, he fell all the way to 27. Why? Because the league was still obsessed with "readiness." Teams were scared he was too raw.
Wait, let’s look at how the experts actually ranked them back then:
Most mocks, like those from Chad Ford or DraftExpress, had a top tier that looked something like this:
- Nerlens Noel (Before the injury, he was the lock)
- Ben McLemore (The "purest" shooter in the class)
- Otto Porter Jr. (The high-floor guy)
- Victor Oladipo (The high-motor defender)
Notice who isn't there? The two guys who actually became Hall of Fame-level talents.
What We Can Learn From the 2013 Mess
The biggest takeaway from the 2013 NBA draft projections is that "weak" drafts are often just "misunderstood" drafts. We judge classes by the stars at the top. Because Bennett flopped and Noel struggled, we labeled the whole thing a disaster.
But look at the depth. This draft gave us:
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- Rudy Gobert (4x Defensive Player of the Year)
- Giannis Antetokounmpo (2x MVP, Champion)
- CJ McCollum (A consistent 20-point scorer found at 10)
- Steven Adams (The league's strongest human at 12)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (A vital starter on multiple title teams)
It turns out the talent was there. It just wasn't where the "experts" said it would be.
Actionable Insights for Draft Fans
If you're looking at current draft boards and feeling underwhelmed, remember 2013.
- Ignore the "Weak Class" Narrative: Usually, this just means there isn't a Zion or a LeBron. It doesn't mean there aren't All-Stars.
- Watch the Internationals: The NBA is better at scouting now, but 2013 proved that the highest ceiling often lives overseas in leagues we don't watch enough.
- Measurements Aren't Everything: Alex Len had the size. Anthony Bennett had the "explosiveness." Neither had the "feel."
- Health Matters, But Skill Wins: Nerlens Noel’s fall was purely medical. But even when healthy, his lack of offensive skill limited his ceiling. Bet on skills.
The 2013 NBA draft projections will always be the gold standard for why we should take every "expert" mock with a massive grain of salt. Sometimes the best player in the world is a teenager in Greece that nobody can spell the name of yet.
Next Steps for Evaluating Prospects:
To better understand how to spot "steals" like Giannis or Gobert in modern drafts, you should focus on functional athleticism rather than raw combine numbers. Check the "Skill-to-Size" ratio—players who are 6'10" but can handle the ball like a guard (the "Point Forward" archetype) almost always outperform their draft slot if they land in the right development system. Look for prospects with high "Stocks" (Steals + Blocks) in college or international play, as this is a high-correlation indicator for NBA-level defensive impact.