Honestly, if you were watching the news toward the end of 2024, it felt like you couldn't escape the betting boards. People weren't just looking at the New York Times or CNN polls anymore; they were glued to sites like Polymarket and PredictIt. It was weird. It was fast. And for a lot of people, it was the first time they realized that "odds" might actually tell a different story than "polls."
The 2024 us presidential election odds became a sort of parallel reality. While the TV talking heads were calling it a "coin flip" or a "dead heat" in the final weeks, the betting markets were leaning much more aggressively toward a Donald Trump victory. We’re talking about a massive gap where polls showed Kamala Harris up by 1 or 2 points, but the bettors had Trump at a 60% or even 66% chance of winning.
Why the disconnect?
The Moment the Odds Broke the Internet
Everything changed in the summer of 2024. It was like a movie script that kept getting rewritten. First, you had that June 27 debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Before that night, Biden was trailing, but he was still very much in the game. Afterward? The odds for him staying in the race plummeted. Polymarket actually predicted he’d drop out weeks before he actually did. They had his chances of withdrawing at 70% while his own campaign was still saying he was "all in."
Then came July 13. The assassination attempt in Butler, Pennsylvania.
Markets reacted instantly. Trump’s odds surged to nearly 70% in the immediate aftermath. You’ve probably seen the photos, but the bettors saw a "lock." It didn't stay there, though. Politics is fickle. When Kamala Harris stepped in on July 21, the 2024 us presidential election odds did a total 180. Suddenly, it was a race again.
Why Bettors Think Differently Than Pollsters
Polls are basically a snapshot of a conversation. A pollster calls someone (who probably doesn't pick up their phone) and asks, "Who would you vote for if the election were today?" It's a measure of sentiment.
Betting is different. It's about "skin in the game."
On platforms like Polymarket, which saw over $3.3 billion in total volume by Election Day, you aren't just saying who you like. You’re putting your rent money on who you think is going to win. This creates a "Wisdom of the Crowds" effect. If you have some inside info or a really good grasp of swing state demographics, you bet on it. If you’re wrong, you lose money. That incentive structure tends to cut through the noise of what people want to happen versus what is happening.
The "Whale" That Moved the Needle
In October, everyone started talking about "Theo."
That’s the nickname for a French trader who dropped something like $30 million—and eventually more—betting on a Trump sweep. People were freaking out. Was the market being manipulated? Was it just one rich guy trying to create a narrative? The Wall Street Journal and other big outlets went deep on this.
It turns out, the guy wasn't a political operative. He was just a math nerd who thought the polls were undercounting the "shy Trump voter" again, just like in 2016. He ended up walking away with a profit of about $85 million. When you look at the 2024 us presidential election odds from that perspective, the market wasn't "wrong" or "manipulated"—it was reflecting a high-conviction bet that turned out to be right on the money.
Real-Time Reactivity
One of the coolest (or scariest, depending on your vibe) things about these odds was how they reacted to tiny events.
- The Harris-Trump Debate: Harris performed well, and her odds spiked immediately.
- The Walz Announcement: When Tim Walz was picked over Josh Shapiro, the markets actually took a few hours to decide if they liked it.
- Swing State Shifts: By late October, the odds in Pennsylvania and Arizona started moving toward Trump even while national polls stayed flat.
Bettors were looking at things like early voting returns and registration data in rural counties. Polls usually take three to five days to "cook" before they are released. Betting odds move in seconds.
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Did the Markets Get it Right?
Basically, yeah.
While the "horse race" narrative on TV kept people on the edge of their seats, the markets were signaling a GOP advantage for most of the final month. Specifically, the "Republican Sweep" odds—where they take the White House, the Senate, and the House—started climbing in mid-October.
Finance guys were watching this closely. If you look at bond yields and the dollar's strength in late 2024, the "Trump Trade" was already happening. The 2024 us presidential election odds were acting as a leading indicator for the global economy. If the odds said Trump, the market started pricing in tariffs and tax cuts before a single ballot was even officially tallied.
What This Means for the Future
If you’re looking at these markets now, there are a few things you should actually do with this information. Don’t just treat it like a casino.
Track the spread, not just the winner.
In the future, don't just look at who is "ahead." Look at the gap between the betting odds and the polling average. When the betting market is significantly more bullish on a candidate than the polls are, it usually means there is "hidden" data—like voter enthusiasm or registration trends—that the traditional models are missing.
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Watch the "Whales" but don't obsess.
One person can move a market, but they can't change the vote. If you see a massive spike in odds without any actual news, it's usually just a big buy order. Wait for the market to stabilize before you assume the race has actually changed.
Focus on the swing states.
National odds are a vanity metric. The 2024 us presidential election odds that actually mattered were the ones for Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In 2024, the betting markets for those specific states were way more accurate than the national "vibes."
Next time around, ignore the national "who's winning" charts. Go straight to the individual state markets on PredictIt or Polymarket. That’s where the real story is usually hiding.