Michigan is about to lose its "Big Gretch" energy.
Gretchen Whitmer is out. Term limits are a real thing here, and after eight years of "fixing the damn roads," she’s packing up. That leaves a massive, Governor-shaped hole in Lansing that dozens of people are currently trying to sprint toward. Honestly, if you think the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election is just going to be a standard Red vs. Blue rematch, you haven't been paying attention. Things are getting weird.
For starters, we have a three-way collision course that could actually break the two-party fever dream. Usually, third-party or independent runs are just footnotes. Not this time. Mike Duggan, the guy who spent over a decade as Detroit’s mayor, isn't running as a Democrat. He’s running as an Independent. That is a massive grenade tossed into the middle of the room.
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The Democratic Power Vacuum
Jocelyn Benson is currently the woman to beat on the left. You’ve seen her everywhere—she’s been the Secretary of State since 2019 and basically became the face of "protecting the vote" during some pretty chaotic years. She’s leaning hard into her record of making the SOS offices not suck (shorter wait times, more kiosks).
But it’s not a coronation. Garlin Gilchrist II, the Lieutenant Governor, was in the mix for a while but recently decided to pivot. He’s running for Secretary of State instead. That leaves Benson as the clear front-runner, but she’s still looking over her shoulder at people like Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.
Swanson is an interesting character. He’s the guy who famously took off his helmet and marched with protesters in Flint back in 2020. He has a kind of "law and order with a heart" vibe that plays well in places like Macomb County. Then you have Marni Sawicki, the former mayor of Cape Coral, Florida, who’s now back in Michigan trying to make a splash.
The Republican Fight for the Soul of the Mitten
On the Republican side, it’s a total scramble.
U.S. Representative John James is currently leading the pack in name recognition. The man has run for statewide office before—he nearly took down Gary Peters for Senate a few years back. He’s got the West Point pedigree, the business background, and a lot of support from the party establishment. If he wins, he’d be Michigan’s first Black governor.
But he’s got company. Mike Cox, the former Attorney General, is back. He’s running on a "Make Michigan Great Again" platform, explicitly saying he wants Michigan to look more like Florida and Texas. It’s a bold pitch in a state that loves its Great Lakes but maybe not its high property taxes.
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Then you’ve got Aric Nesbitt, the state Senate Minority Leader. He’s a hardcore Trump supporter and has been a thorn in Whitmer’s side for years. He’s joined by Tom Leonard, the former House Speaker who’s tried for Attorney General twice. It’s a crowded field of "who’s who" in Lansing, and they’re all going to be fighting for the same lane of conservative voters.
The Duggan Wildcard
Let’s talk about Mike Duggan again. This is the part that most people get wrong about the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election.
Duggan has spent 11 years running Detroit. He knows where the bodies are buried, and he knows how to raise money. By running as an Independent, he’s essentially saying, "I’m tired of the Lansing bickering."
- He appeals to moderate Democrats who think the party has drifted too far left.
- He appeals to business-minded Republicans who want someone who can actually manage a budget.
- He’s already raising a mountain of cash.
If he manages to peel off 15% to 20% of the vote, he doesn't just "spoil" the election; he could actually win it. Michigan has a history of being "swingy," but we haven't seen a serious independent threat like this in modern history. The major parties are already attacking him, which usually means they’re terrified.
What’s Actually at Stake?
It’s not just about who gets to live in the mansion. 2026 is a "midterm" year in the middle of Donald Trump’s second term. Historically, the party in the White House loses ground in the midterms. Michigan has this weird, unofficial tradition where we switch parties in the governor's office every eight years.
2002: Democrat (Granholm)
2010: Republican (Snyder)
2018: Democrat (Whitmer)
2026: ???
If the pattern holds, a Republican should win. But patterns are meant to be broken. Plus, there’s a massive list of other things on the ballot that will drive turnout. We might be voting on whether to hold a whole new Constitutional Convention. There’s talk of ranked-choice voting. Every single seat in the state House and Senate is up for grabs.
The Issues That’ll Move the Needle
Forget the national talking points for a second. In Michigan, the 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election will likely come down to three things:
- The Economy & Inflation: People are still feeling the squeeze at the grocery store. Anthony Hudson, a truck driver running as a Republican, is literally campaigning on eliminating state income and property taxes. It’s a wild idea that would bankrupt the state, but it sounds great to someone struggling to pay rent.
- Education: Michigan’s school rankings have been sliding for a decade. Every candidate is promising a "fix," but nobody has a plan to pay for it without raising taxes or cutting services.
- Transparency: Michigan consistently ranks as one of the worst states for government transparency. Candidates like Benson and Duggan are making "Open Government" a core part of their pitch.
A Quick Reality Check
Don't believe every poll you see right now. We are a long way from November 2026. The primary isn't until August 4, 2026. A lot can happen between now and then. A candidate could drop out (like Garlin Gilchrist just did), a scandal could break, or the national economy could take a nosedive.
Right now, it’s a game of money and name recognition. John James and Jocelyn Benson have both. Mike Duggan has the wild card. Everyone else is just trying to get a word in edgewise.
How to Prepare for 2026
If you're a voter in the Mitten, you shouldn't just wait for the TV commercials to start screaming at you.
- Check your registration. Even if you’ve voted before, Michigan’s laws have changed recently. Make sure you’re good to go at the Michigan Voter Information Center.
- Follow the money. The Michigan Secretary of State’s office publishes campaign finance reports. See who is actually funding these "grassroots" campaigns.
- Look past the labels. With an Independent like Duggan in the race, the "D" or "R" next to a name matters less than usual. Read the actual policy platforms on their websites.
The 2026 Michigan gubernatorial election is going to be expensive, loud, and probably a bit exhausting. But it’s also the most important "reset" the state has seen in a generation.
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To stay ahead of the curve, start by looking into the specific voting records of the candidates currently in office. If you're following the Republican primary, compare John James's federal voting record with Aric Nesbitt's state-level record. For the Democrats, watch how Jocelyn Benson handles the upcoming 2026 primary logistics—it’ll be a direct preview of her executive style. Finally, keep an eye on Mike Duggan's fundraising totals; if an Independent can outraise the major parties, the entire "8-year cycle" rule might just go out the window.