You're probably looking at a weather app right now. If it says "sunny" for the next 30 days in Cabo, it’s basically lying to you—not because it’ll rain, but because "sunny" doesn't tell the whole story of a Baja winter.
January and February in Cabo San Lucas are a weird, beautiful contradiction. You have the "coldest" days of the year happening right now, yet you’ll still see tourists getting lobster-red by noon.
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Honestly, the 30 day forecast for cabo san lucas is the most predictable and unpredictable thing you’ll ever track. Predictable because it almost never rains. Unpredictable because the wind and the "micro-climates" between the Pacific side and the Sea of Cortez can make a five-mile drive feel like a ten-degree temperature swing.
The Reality of the 30 Day Forecast for Cabo San Lucas
Right now, we are sitting in the heart of the high season. If you are looking at the window from mid-January through mid-February 2026, here is the factual breakdown of what’s actually happening on the ground.
Highs are hovering consistently around 79°F (26°C). Some days might hit 82°F if the breeze dies down, but you aren't going to see those sweltering 90-degree days until much later in the spring.
The lows? That’s where people get tripped up. It drops to 61°F (16°C). That sounds "fine" on paper, but in a desert climate with zero humidity, 61 degrees feels like a refrigerator. If you're planning a sunset dinner at El Farallon or anywhere near the water, you will be shivering without a jacket.
Why the "Sunny" Icon is Misleading
Cabo is a tropical desert. We get about 350 days of sunshine a year. But "clear skies" in the 30-day outlook often includes something called the "Cabo Fog" or heavy marine layers.
In the early mornings, specifically throughout late January, a thick mist can roll in from the Pacific. It’ll be grey and damp at 7:00 AM, making you think your beach day is ruined. Then, like magic, the clock hits 10:30 AM, the sun burns through, and it's suddenly scorching.
- Rain Chance: Virtually 0% to 2%. If it rains in the next 30 days, it’ll be a "chipichipi"—a light drizzle that lasts ten minutes.
- Humidity: Staying low, around 45% to 55%. This is the "dry heat" everyone raves about.
- Wind: This is the big one. Northwest winds pick up in February. If you're on a boat, a 15-knot wind makes the "feels like" temperature drop significantly.
Water Temperatures: Can You Actually Swim?
This is the most common question I get. The short answer: Yes, but it’s not the Caribbean.
The Sea of Cortez is currently sitting at 72°F to 74°F (22°C - 23°C). For context, that’s refreshing for a quick dip, but if you’re planning on snorkeling for an hour at Santa Maria or Chileno Bay, you might want a 3mm shorty wetsuit.
The Pacific side (where the big resorts like Quivira or Diamante are) is always colder. Don't even try swimming there—not just because of the temp, but because the "rogue waves" and undertow are deadly. Stick to the swimmable beaches on the Corridor.
Whale Watching and the Weather Connection
There is a reason the 30 day forecast for cabo san lucas is so popular this time of year: The Humpbacks.
January and February are peak whale season. The whales love this "cooler" water. Because the skies are so clear and the seas are relatively calm (aside from that afternoon breeze), visibility is at an all-time high.
If you see "Partly Cloudy" on your forecast, don't worry. Those high-altitude cirrus clouds actually make for the best sunset photos. They catch the light and turn the sky into a mix of neon orange and violet that you just don't get with perfectly clear skies.
What Most People Forget to Pack
Most people pack for the 80-degree day and forget the 60-degree night.
- A real hoodie or light puffer: I’m serious. Walking the Marina at 9:00 PM in February is chilly.
- Lip balm with SPF: The desert air + salt water = cracked lips in 24 hours.
- Closed-toe shoes: Your feet will get cold at dinner if you only bring flip-flops.
- Reef-safe Sunscreen: The UV index is still an 8 or 9 (Very High) even when it's "cool." You will burn faster than you think because the breeze masks the heat.
Local Secrets for the Next 30 Days
If you are headed down here soon, keep an eye on the wind direction. If the forecast shows winds coming from the North, the Sea of Cortez side will be choppy. If it's coming from the West, the Pacific side gets the brunt of it.
Also, the "30-day" window right now covers the transition into February, which is historically the driest month of the year. You are statistically more likely to win the lottery than to need an umbrella this month.
Actionable Travel Tips
- Book morning tours: The wind usually picks up after 2:00 PM. If you want a smooth boat ride to Land's End, go at 8:00 AM or 9:00 AM.
- Layering is life: Wear a swimsuit under a t-shirt, under a light flannel or hoodie. You’ll shed layers like a lizard as the sun moves across the sky.
- Watch the Pacific side: If your hotel is on the Pacific, expect it to be 5 degrees cooler than the Marina. That ocean breeze is relentless.
The 30 day forecast for cabo san lucas shows a steady, reliable run of perfect "winter" weather. Just don't let the "highs" fool you into leaving your sweater at home. Enjoy the whales, the dry air, and the lack of hurricanes—this is arguably the best month to be in the Baja.
To make the most of this window, focus your outdoor activities between 11:00 AM and 4:00 PM when the sun is at its peak. If you're planning a boat trip, aim for the first half of your stay while the winds are typically calmer before the February gusts settle in. Grab a local "Pacifico" beer, find a spot on Medano Beach, and soak up the most consistent weather in North America.