Let’s be real for a second. Every year, we act like the Academy Awards are some grand, unpredictable mystery, but usually, by the time January rolls around, we've already talked ourselves into a corner. We think we know exactly who's getting that gold. But looking at the potential list of the Oscar nominations for the 98th Academy Awards, things feel... messy. In a good way.
Maybe it’s because the heavy hitters this year aren't just the usual prestige dramas. We’ve got Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling epic One Battle After Another clashing with Chloé Zhao’s intimate Hamnet. Then there's the sheer chaotic energy of Marty Supreme. It’s a weird mix. If you’re looking for a safe, predictable year, this isn’t it.
The official nominations aren't officially read out until Thursday, January 22, 2026. Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman are handling the honors at 5:30 a.m. PT. (Yes, it’s early. Coffee is mandatory.) But even before the envelopes open, the shortlists and precursor awards have already painted a wild picture of what’s coming.
The Best Picture Heavyweights
Basically, the Academy has ten spots to fill for Best Picture. In the past, those spots went to "Oscar bait"—you know, the period pieces where everyone cries in a field. This year? It's a dogfight between high-concept sci-fi, sequels that actually worked, and raw indie darlings.
- One Battle After Another: Everyone is saying this is Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. It’s got that "overdue" narrative people love.
- Hamnet: Chloé Zhao back in her Nomadland bag. It’s quiet, it’s gorgeous, and it’s likely going to sweep the technical categories too.
- Sinners: Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan. It’s a cultural landmark, honestly. If this gets snubbed in the top category, expect the internet to actually break.
- Bugonia: Yorgos Lanthimos is back being weird. People either love it or they’re deeply confused, which is usually a good sign for a nomination.
- Wicked: For Good: The sequel. It didn't quite hit the box office highs of the first part, but the Academy usually respects the craft here.
It’s not just about the big names, though. Films like Sentimental Value from Joachim Trier are lurking in the shadows. There’s a real chance the list of the Oscar nominations includes more international flare than we’ve seen in a decade.
Actors Who Are Basically Locks (And the Ones Who Aren't)
Timothée Chalamet is having a moment. Again. His turn as a ping-pong pro in Marty Supreme has been sweeping the critics' awards. Honestly, it’s hard to see a world where he isn’t leading the Best Actor pack. But he’s got Leonardo DiCaprio breathing down his neck for One Battle After Another.
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The Best Actress race is even tighter. Jessie Buckley for Hamnet is the name on everyone's lips. She’s raw. She’s heartbreaking. But then you have Kate Hudson in Song Sung Blue—a total "comeback" performance that the industry just eats up.
Supporting categories are where things get spicy.
Amy Madigan is looking at a nomination for Weapons. If she gets in, it’ll be her first since 1986. That’s nearly 40 years. That’s the kind of stat the Academy lives for. Meanwhile, Ariana Grande is looking to snag a spot for Wicked: For Good, even though her co-star Cynthia Erivo has been weirdly absent from some of the precursor lists.
The Snubs We’re Already Bracing For
We have to talk about Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson.
For months, the talk was all about The Smashing Machine. People thought this was his "serious actor" debut. His Uncut Gems moment. But the buzz has cooled significantly. After the SAG awards basically ignored it, the chance of him appearing on the final list of the Oscar nominations is looking slim. It’s a bummer, but that’s the game.
Another potential heartbreak? The Secret Agent. Wagner Moura is incredible in it. He won at Cannes. He’s been winning everywhere else. But the Academy’s acting branch is notoriously "subs-averse" (they hate subtitles). If he misses out, it’ll be the biggest "what were they thinking?" moment of the night.
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Why the Technical Categories Matter This Year
Look at the shortlists. You’ve got Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, and Superman all fighting for Visual Effects. But the real story is in the Music categories.
Sinners has a score that stays in your head for days.
And Wicked: For Good is obviously going to dominate the Song category, but don’t count out Tron: Ares. The music in that franchise has always been a character of its own.
What Happens Next?
If you're following along at home, here is the timeline. No more guessing after this.
- January 22, 2026: The big reveal. The 98th Oscar nominations are announced live.
- February 10, 2026: The Oscar Nominees Luncheon. This is where everyone takes that giant class photo.
- March 2 - March 10, 2026: Final voting. This is when the real campaigning happens behind closed doors.
- March 15, 2026: The 98th Academy Awards ceremony.
The best thing you can do right now? Go watch the movies. Don't just read the lists. Catch One Battle After Another on the biggest screen you can find. Find a small theater playing Sentimental Value. The race is much more fun when you’ve actually seen the work being debated.
Keep an eye on the "below the line" categories too. Costume design for Frankenstein and the makeup in Marty Supreme are doing things we haven't seen in years. Whether or not your favorite actor gets the nod, the sheer level of craft on display this year is pretty staggering.
Make sure to set your alarms for the 22nd. Whether it’s a sweep for the favorites or a night of shocking upsets, the list of the Oscar nominations is going to define the cinematic conversation for the rest of the year.
Actionable Next Steps
- Watch the Shortlisted Shorts: Most people ignore these, but the Live Action and Animated Short categories are usually available on streaming platforms like YouTube or Vimeo right after the nominations. They are often the most creative films of the year.
- Check Local Listings for International Features: Films like The Secret Agent (Brazil) and Homebound (India) often get limited re-releases once the nominations are out. Don't wait for them to hit Netflix; see them in a theater if you can.
- Track the "Guild" Awards: If you want to know who will actually win the Oscar, watch the Producers Guild (PGA) and Directors Guild (DGA) winners in February. They are the most accurate predictors of the final Best Picture result.