You've probably noticed that the three-stripes brand is everywhere lately. From the resurgence of the Samba to the high-fashion collaborations, Adidas feels like it’s winning the culture war. But if you look at the adidas ag stock price, the story is a lot more complicated than what you see on people's feet at the local coffee shop. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is sitting around €165 on the Xetra (ADS.DE) and roughly $97 for the ADRs (ADDYY) in the US.
It’s been a wild ride. Just a week ago, Bank of America hit the company with a rare "double downgrade," skipping "hold" entirely and going straight to "underperform." The market took notice. The stock tumbled about 7% in a single day.
Why the sudden pessimism when the brand feels so "in"?
Basically, Wall Street is worried that the turnaround story—the one where CEO Bjørn Gulden saved the company from the Yeezy disaster—is already "priced in." Investors are looking at 2026 and seeing a potential slowdown. They’re asking: after the Samba hype fades and the 2026 World Cup ends, what’s left to drive growth?
🔗 Read more: US Dollar to Ukraine Hryvnia: What Most People Get Wrong About the Exchange Rate
The "Casualization" Wall and the BofA Shocker
The big news hitting the wires right now is the idea that the "casualization" trend is peaking. For twenty years, sneakers moved from the gym to the boardroom. Sneakers now make up about 50% of the footwear market. Analysts like Thierry Cota are arguing that this trend has basically hit a ceiling. There isn't much more room to grow by just putting people in lifestyle shoes.
Then there is the "Nike factor."
Nike had a rough 2024 and 2025, which gave Adidas a massive opening. But Nike is starting to regain its footing. When the big dog in the yard starts biting back, it usually hurts the competitors' margins.
Recent Performance by the Numbers
If you look at the Q3 2025 results reported late last year, the numbers actually looked decent on the surface:
- Revenue: €6.63 billion (up about 3% year-over-year).
- Operating Profit: Around €546 million in recent quarters.
- Net Income: Growing, but the pace is starting to flatten.
The stock’s 52-week range has been wide, swinging between €150 and €263. Right now, we are much closer to the bottom of that range than the top. Honestly, it’s a bit of a reality check for anyone who thought the recovery would be a straight line up.
Why the 2026 World Cup is a Double-Edged Sword
Sports brands love big events. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is the holy grail. Adidas is a massive sponsor, and they expect a huge bump in jersey sales and "terrace" footwear. But smart money is already looking past the final whistle.
History shows that these events provide a "one-off" boost. Once the tournament ends, year-over-year comparisons become very difficult to beat. If Adidas grows 15% during a World Cup year, and only 5% the year after, the stock price often suffers because the "momentum" appears to be dying.
Bjørn Gulden has been very vocal about "volatility and uncertainty." He’s worried about US tariffs—which could cost the company up to €200 million—and how inflation might eventually make a €120 pair of Gazelles look like a luxury some people can't afford.
The Battle of the "Run-Club" Brands
It's not just Nike anymore. Ten years ago, Adidas only really looked at Beaverton. Now, they're looking at Switzerland and Japan.
- On Holding (ONON): They are eating the premium running market alive.
- Asics: Their Sportstyle category grew over 45% recently.
- Hoka: Still a powerhouse in the "maximalist" shoe space.
Adidas is trying to fight back with the Supernova line and the Adizero franchise, but the niche brands are sticky. They have a cult-like following that Adidas, as a mass-market giant, sometimes struggles to replicate. When you’re a "generalist," you’re vulnerable to specialists.
Valuation: Is it Cheap or a Trap?
Right now, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is hovering around 24. For comparison, Nike is often up in the 30s or 40s when things are going well. Lululemon is much lower, around 14, though they’re a different beast entirely.
Is a 24x multiple "fair" for a brand that might only see single-digit growth in 2026?
Some analysts still have price targets as high as €230, but the consensus is shifting toward the €160–€180 range. If the company hits its operating profit guidance of €1.7 billion to €1.8 billion for the full year, the stock might find a floor. But if they miss—even by a little—the "sell" ratings might start piling up.
Key Risks to Watch:
- The China Recovery: It’s been slower than everyone hoped.
- Inventory Management: Adidas finally cleared the Yeezy backlog, but they have to be careful not to overproduce the current "it" shoes. Nothing kills a trend faster than seeing it on the clearance rack.
- Consumer Sentiment: In the US, the "participation rate" in sports isn't actually increasing. People are buying the gear to look the part, not necessarily to play.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
If you're holding Adidas, you're essentially betting on Bjørn Gulden’s ability to find the "next big thing" after the Samba. He’s done it before at Puma, and he’s doing it now. But the "easy money" from the turnaround has likely been made.
Now comes the hard part: sustainable, boring, mid-single-digit growth in a world where everyone already owns three pairs of white sneakers.
Next Steps for Investors:
- Watch the Q4 2025 earnings release (expected in March 2026) specifically for the 2026 full-year guidance; this will be the definitive signal for the stock's direction.
- Monitor the Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate, as currency translation effects have recently stripped hundreds of millions from their top-line revenue.
- Track the "sell-through" rates of the new running silhouettes; if Adidas can't win back the performance runner from brands like On, the lifestyle-only growth won't be enough to sustain a higher valuation.