You’ve probably seen the blue octagon signs in your neighbor's yard for decades. Honestly, ADT is basically the "Band-Aid" or "Kleenex" of home security. But when you look at the adt security share price lately, the story gets a lot more complicated than just selling alarm systems.
As of mid-January 2026, the stock has been hovering around the $8.14 to $8.25 range. It's a weird spot to be in. On one hand, you have this massive legacy company trying to turn into a tech giant. On the other, you have a market that seems a bit skeptical about how fast that transformation is actually happening.
Investors are currently chewing on some pretty mixed signals. The 52-week high sits up near $8.94, while the low was down around $6.99. If you bought in during that dip, you're feeling okay right now, but we’re a long way from the double-digit dreams some analysts were pitching a year ago.
The State Farm Breakup (Sort Of)
A lot of people got excited back in 2022 when State Farm dropped $1.2 billion into ADT. The idea was simple: "predict and prevent." If ADT sensors stop a pipe from bursting or a fire from spreading, State Farm saves money on claims. It felt like a win-win.
But late in 2025, things hit a snag. The partnership didn't exactly set the world on fire. In fact, reports surfaced that the program only brought in about 33,000 subscribers. That’s a drop in the bucket for companies this size. Consequently, the formal three-year partnership technically ended, though they’re still "collaborating" on data. When big-name partnerships cool off, the adt security share price usually feels the chill.
What’s Actually Moving the Needle?
It’s not all bad news, though. ADT is leaning hard into AI. By the end of this quarter, they expect nearly 90% of their customer service chats to be handled by AI agents. While that might sound annoying if you just want to talk to a human, for the balance sheet, it's a massive cost-cutter.
The Numbers That Matter Right Now
- Market Cap: Around $6.7 billion.
- Dividend Yield: Roughly 2.6% to 2.7%. They pay out about $0.22 per share annually.
- Revenue: They’re pulling in north of $5 billion a year, but growth is slow—think 3% to 4%.
The real hero in their recent earnings calls has been retention. Their gross attrition rate (basically how many people cancel) stayed around 12.6%. For a subscription business, that’s the lifeblood. If people stay, the cash keeps flowing.
Why Analysts Can't Agree
If you ask five different analysts what they think of ADT, you’ll get five different answers. Some are shouting "Buy" because they see the Google integration—Google owns a chunk of the company and their Nest tech is baked into the ADT pro-installs. Others are strictly in the "Hold" camp.
The median price target for 2026 is sitting around $8.85 to $9.35. That implies there’s some "meat on the bone" for investors, maybe a 10% to 15% upside. But the "bears" (the pessimists) point to the debt. ADT carries a lot of it—over $7 billion in net debt. In a world where interest rates stay sticky, that’s a heavy backpack to carry while trying to run a marathon.
The DIY Problem
ADT has always been the "pro-install" king. They come to your house, drill the holes, and set the sensors. But companies like Ring and SimpliSafe changed the game with DIY kits. ADT tried to pivot there, then pulled back to focus on "higher-quality" customers.
Now, they’re trying to jump back into the DIY ring by early 2026. It's a crowded space. To win, they have to prove that an ADT DIY kit is better than a cheap one you can grab at a big-box store.
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Actionable Insights for Investors
So, where does that leave you? If you’re looking at the adt security share price and wondering if it’s a move, keep these three things in mind:
- Watch the Debt-to-Equity: This is the company’s Achilles' heel. If they can continue to use their free cash flow to pay down that $7 billion, the stock has room to breathe.
- Monitor the Google Relationship: Google isn't just a partner; they’re an investor. If Google integrates ADT deeper into the "Home" ecosystem, it creates a moat that startups can't cross.
- Check the Next Earnings Date: Mark February 26, 2026, on your calendar. That’s when the next big data dump happens. Analysts are looking for an EPS (Earnings Per Share) of around $0.21. A beat there could finally push the price past that $9 resistance level.
ADT is a slow-and-steady play. It’s not a "to the moon" tech stock, but with a decent dividend and a pivot toward AI efficiency, it’s a classic "value" play that is currently trying to find its footing in a digital-first world.
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Set a price alert for $8.00. If it dips below that, the dividend yield becomes even more attractive for long-term holders. Otherwise, keep an eye on those attrition rates in the Q4 report; they'll tell you more about the company's health than any fancy marketing campaign ever could.