Airplanes are expensive. Really expensive. Most airlines don't actually own the shiny jets you sit in; they rent them. That’s the core of the business for Air Lease Corporation, and honestly, if you’re looking at air lease corp stock right now, you’re looking at a company that basically acts as the world’s most sophisticated landlord for the skies.
It’s a wild time for the industry. While most of us were complaining about legroom, the folks at Air Lease Corp (NYSE: AL) were navigating a massive supply chain mess that has left Boeing and Airbus struggling to deliver planes on time. You’d think that’s bad for a company that buys planes to rent them out, right? Kinda. But it's actually more complicated than that.
The Reality of Air Lease Corp Stock in 2026
The stock is trading around $64.31 as of mid-January 2026. If you look at the charts, it’s been a steady climber, up nearly 40% over the last year. That’s not a typo. While the broader market has been a rollercoaster, aircraft lessors have become the "safe haven" of the aviation world.
Why? Because there is a massive shortage of planes.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recently noted that the delivery shortfall has hit at least 5,300 aircraft globally. When Boeing can't get a 737 MAX to an airline, that airline doesn't just stop flying. They scramble. They keep older planes longer, and they turn to companies like Air Lease to find anything with wings and an engine.
By the Numbers: Financial Health
Looking at the latest data from the January 2026 reporting cycle, the fundamentals are actually pretty striking:
✨ Don't miss: DeGraffenreid v. General Motors: Why This 1976 Case Still Matters
- Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Sitting at a low 7.4. Compare that to the tech sector or even general industrials, and it looks incredibly cheap.
- Market Cap: Roughly $7.19 billion.
- Dividend: They just paid out $0.22 per share on January 8, 2026. They've raised this dividend for 13 years straight.
- Book Value: The stock trades at about 0.86x its book value.
Basically, the market is valuing the company at less than the sum of its parts. If you sold every plane in their fleet tomorrow, you’d likely end up with more cash than the current market cap suggests.
Why the "Hold" Rating is Everywhere
If the numbers are so good, why are analysts like those at Barclays and Zacks sticking to a "Hold" or "Equal Weight" rating?
It’s the debt.
Air Lease Corp is a capital-intensive beast. They borrow billions to buy planes. Their debt-to-equity ratio is around 2.42. In a high-interest-rate environment, that’s a heavy backpack to carry. Every time the Fed sneezes, the interest expense on their multibillion-dollar credit lines ticks up. In their Q3 2025 results, they even admitted that higher interest costs were nibbling away at the margins, despite record-high rental demand.
Then there’s the Sumitomo factor.
Back in late 2025, there was huge talk about a potential merger or acquisition involving a consortium including Sumitomo and SMBC Aviation. While the stock got a "merger pop," the uncertainty of integration in 2026 has some investors sitting on their hands. Is it a buyout play or a long-term compounder? That's the $7 billion question.
The Russia Insurance Win
One thing you’ve gotta understand about the recent earnings beats—like the $1.29 EPS they posted recently—is the "Russia recovery." After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, dozens of Air Lease planes were effectively stolen by Russian airlines. It was a disaster.
But in 2025, the insurance settlements started hitting the books. We're talking hundreds of millions of dollars. For example, in Q2 2025 alone, they recognized a $344 million net benefit from these settlements. It’s "one-time" money, which is why smart investors look at adjusted net income to see how the actual leasing business is doing.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Fleet
People think Air Lease owns "old" planes. They don't.
Founder Steven Udvar-Házy—the guy who literally invented the aircraft leasing industry—built this company on the idea of a "young" fleet. The average age of an Air Lease plane is only about 4.8 years.
This is their "moat."
Airlines want fuel-efficient planes because fuel is their biggest cost. A new A321neo is much cheaper to fly than an old MD-80. Because Air Lease has a massive order book (over 240 planes still on order), they have the "slots" that airlines can't get. If an airline wants a new plane today, they might have to wait until 2030 to get one from the manufacturer. Or, they can call Air Lease and rent one next month. That gives Air Lease incredible pricing power.
The Competition: AL vs. AerCap
You can't talk about air lease corp stock without mentioning AerCap (AER). AerCap is the big brother—the largest in the world.
- AerCap has a higher net margin (45% vs Air Lease's 35%).
- Air Lease has a better dividend track record (13 years of raises).
- AerCap is seen as more "efficient," but Air Lease is often viewed as having a "cleaner" and younger fleet.
Risks You Shouldn't Ignore
Honestly, it’s not all blue skies. The supply chain is still a mess. IATA says the "structural mismatch" between what airlines need and what manufacturers can build won't normalize until 2031 at the earliest.
If Airbus delays a delivery by six months, Air Lease doesn't get to start collecting rent. That pushes revenue down the road. Also, keep an eye on "insider selling." In the last year, while the stock was rising, some executives were trimming their positions—about $71 million in sales vs $34 million in buys. It’s not necessarily a red flag (people need to buy houses and pay taxes), but it’s worth noting when the "smart money" in the building is taking some chips off the table.
Actionable Insights for Your Portfolio
If you’re looking at this stock as a way to play the travel boom, here is how to actually think about your next move.
First, check the price-to-book (P/B) ratio. Historically, buying Air Lease when it’s under 0.9x book value has been a solid entry point for long-term holders. Right now, it’s hovering at 0.86x.
Second, watch the 10-Year Treasury yield. Since Air Lease is basically a spread business (the difference between their borrowing cost and the rent they charge), falling interest rates are a massive tailwind. If you think rates are going down in late 2026, Air Lease could be a coiled spring.
Third, look at the order book placement. As of the most recent updates, Air Lease has already placed 100% of its expected deliveries through the end of 2026 on long-term leases. That means their revenue for the next 12 months is essentially "locked in," provided the planes actually show up from the factory.
Airlines are desperate. Passengers are flying in record numbers. Air Lease owns the hardware that makes it all possible. It’s a boring business of contracts and depreciation, but in a world where nobody can build a plane fast enough, being the guy who already owns them is a pretty good spot to be in.
Next Steps for Investors
- Verify the "merger" status: Keep a close eye on any SEC filings regarding the Sumitomo/SMBC consortium. If a firm offer comes in above $70, the current $64 price is a gift.
- Audit the interest expense: In the next quarterly report (expected Feb 12, 2026), look specifically at the "Composite Cost of Funds." If this is stabilizing, the margins will expand rapidly.
- Ignore the "headline" EPS: Always strip out the Russia insurance settlements to see the true "core" earnings power of the fleet. That is the only number that matters for the stock's long-term health.