If you were looking at the al roy odds 2025 back in March, you probably had your money on Jasson Domínguez or maybe Jackson Jobe. It made sense. Domínguez has the "Martian" nickname and the pinstripes; Jobe has a slider that looks like it's defying the laws of physics. But baseball is weird.
Actually, weird isn't the right word. Baseball is chaotic.
By the time the dust settled on the 2025 season, the betting boards didn't just shift—they imploded. Nick Kurtz, a guy who started the year as a massive +8000 longshot, didn't just win the American League Rookie of the Year. He took every single first-place vote. Every one.
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The Nick Kurtz Takeover
Honestly, nobody saw the 210-point landslide coming. Kurtz, the Oakland Athletics' first baseman, basically turned the AL West into his personal home run derby. He finished with 36 homers and a 1.002 OPS. To put that in perspective, he ended the year with the third-highest OPS in the entire league. Not just among rookies. The entire league.
If you bet on him in April, you're probably sitting on a nice beach right now.
His teammate, Jacob Wilson, was the favorite for a huge chunk of the summer. Wilson is a hitting machine—the kind of guy who puts the ball in play even when he’s falling over. He hit .311 and finished with 151 hits. In almost any other year, Wilson walks away with the hardware. But you can’t really compete with 36 bombs and a unanimous vote.
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2025 AL ROY Voting Results
- Nick Kurtz (Athletics): 210 points (30 first-place votes)
- Jacob Wilson (Athletics): 107 points
- Roman Anthony (Red Sox): 72 points
- Noah Cameron (Royals): 54 points
It's sorta wild that the Athletics had the top two finishers. Usually, that kind of concentration of talent happens in New York or LA. Instead, it was happening in the East Bay (or wherever they were officially calling home by then).
Why the Favorites Flopped
So, what happened to the "safe" bets?
Jasson Domínguez had an up-and-down April. He’d hit a 450-foot moonshot one night and then go 0-for-12 the next week. Injuries didn't help either. Roman Anthony in Boston was actually incredible, but he only played 71 games. You've gotta stay on the field to win an award like this. He still managed to finish third in the voting, which tells you just how high his ceiling is for 2026.
Then there was Jackson Jobe. The Tigers' right-hander was everyone's darling in Spring Training. He had a 2.70 ERA through his first few starts, and his slider was holding opponents to a .105 batting average. But the walks started piling up. When you're a rookie pitcher, the league eventually figures out if you can't find the zone. He’s going to be a star, but he wasn't the ROY.
Looking Forward: The 2026 Shift
Since the 2025 race is officially in the history books, the market has moved on to the next crop of talent. If you're looking at the board today, the names look very different. The international market has completely changed the math.
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- Trey Yesavage (+200): The Blue Jays pitcher is the current heavy favorite. He had a cup of coffee at the end of 2025 and looked like a seasoned vet. His splitter is basically a "delete" button for hitters.
- Munetaka Murakami (+350): The White Sox finally landed the Japanese superstar. He’s already hit 56 homers in a season in the NPB. If his power translates even 80%, he’s the frontrunner.
- Tatsuya Imai (+500): Another Japanese import, this time heading to Houston. The Astros have a way of making every pitcher they touch better, which is a scary thought for the rest of the AL.
Practical Advice for Baseball Futures
Kinda like we saw with the al roy odds 2025, the preseason favorite rarely wins this award. It’s a marathon, not a sprint. If you’re looking to place a bet on the 2026 race, here is what you actually need to look for:
Plate Discipline Over Exit Velo
Everyone loves a guy who can hit the ball 115 mph. But if he strikes out 35% of the time, he’s going to get sent down by June. Look for rookies with a low K-rate. That’s why Jacob Wilson was such a safe bet last year.
The "September Call-Up" Trap
Don't get too enamored with guys who dominated for three weeks in September. The league didn't have a book on them yet. Watch how they adjust in the second month of their first full season.
Wait for the Service Time Games
Teams still play games with service time. A guy might be the best player in camp, but if the team waits until May 1st to call him up, he’s already lost 100 at-bats. That matters when the writers sit down to vote.
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on Samuel Basallo in Baltimore. He’s sitting around +800 right now. He’s got the power-hitting profile that the BBWAA clearly loves (see: Nick Kurtz), and he’s playing in a lineup that’s going to give him plenty of RBI opportunities.
Check the injury reports before you lock anything in. A hamstring tweak in March can derail an entire rookie campaign. Keep your bankroll small on these longshots—baseball is a long season, and the "unanimous" winner usually doesn't reveal themselves until August.
Next steps for you: Check your favorite sportsbook to see if Tatsuya Imai or Munetaka Murakami have seen their lines shift since the latest spring training reports came out. Pay close attention to any "innings limit" rumors for the young pitchers like Trey Yesavage, as that can kill a ROY campaign before it starts.