Honestly, trying to pin down the exact value of Alibaba right now feels a bit like chasing a moving target in a windstorm. If you're looking for the quick answer, the price of Alibaba stock (BABA) closed at $165.40 on Friday, January 16, 2026. It's been a wild week. Just a few days ago, the stock was flirting with $171, then it pulled back about 3% in a single session. This kind of volatility isn't just "market noise." It's the sound of Wall Street trying to decide if Alibaba is a boring old e-commerce giant or the next great AI powerhouse.
Most people just look at the ticker and see a number. But if you've been watching the charts as closely as I have, you'll notice that BABA is currently up over 110% over the last twelve months. That's a massive comeback for a stock that many had left for dead a couple of years ago.
Why the Price of Alibaba Stock is Moving Right Now
You can't talk about the price today without talking about Qwen.
Alibaba's proprietary AI model, Qwen, just crossed a massive milestone: 700 million downloads. That makes it the most popular open-source AI model globally, even beating out some of the big names from Silicon Valley. On January 12th alone, this news sent the stock surging 10% in a single day.
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Investors are starting to realize that Alibaba isn't just "the Amazon of China" anymore. They are successfully pivoting. Their Cloud Intelligence Group grew its revenue by 34% in the most recent quarter, largely because AI-related product sales are growing at triple-digit rates.
The Tug-of-War Between Growth and Profit
But here is the catch. Growth isn't free.
While the revenue numbers look great—hitting RMB 247.8 billion last quarter—the actual profit (non-GAAP earnings) dropped by a staggering 71%. Why? Because management is shoveling money into two things:
- AI Infrastructure: They are buying up every chip they can find to build out the backend for Qwen and their cloud clients.
- Quick Commerce: They are in a brutal price war with JD.com and Meituan, doubling their marketing spend to over RMB 66 billion just to keep users on the Taobao app.
Is BABA Actually Undervalued?
If you ask the analysts at places like Morgan Stanley or Jefferies, they’ll tell you the current price is a bargain. The consensus price target is hovering around $190.68, with some bulls like Jefferies calling for $225.00.
There’s a massive gap between the current market price of $165.40 and what's called the "intrinsic value." Some discounted cash flow (DCF) models suggest the stock should actually be worth closer to $281.17 based on its long-term cash generation.
So why isn't it there yet?
Kinda simple, really: Risk. The market is still nervous about Chinese regulation. Even though we’ve seen signs of the government softening its stance—like recent moves to stop predatory price wars in food delivery—investors are still haunted by the "crackdown" era. Plus, there are constant concerns about how much more Alibaba will have to spend to stay ahead in the AI race.
What Most People Miss About the 2026 Outlook
One thing nobody talks about is how the weak U.S. dollar is helping. As the dollar softens and global rate cuts continue, money is starting to flow back into emerging markets. Alibaba is the "bellwether" for that trade. When big institutions decide to buy China, they buy BABA first.
Also, don't sleep on Alibaba Health. That specific subsidiary just saw a 49% share price surge in a single month. It shows that the broader Alibaba ecosystem is finally firing on all cylinders again, not just the core shopping sites.
Key Stats at a Glance
- 52-Week Range: $83.03 – $192.67
- Market Cap: Approximately $395 Billion
- P/E Ratio: 21.38 (Sitting below the peer group average of 30x)
- Dividend Yield: Around 1.20%
How to Trade or Hold Alibaba Right Now
If you're holding BABA or thinking about jumping in, you've got to watch the $156 level. That's the 50-day moving average. As long as the price stays above that, the upward trend that started in late 2025 is still alive and well.
Honestly, the "easy money" from the $80 lows is gone. Now, it's a game of execution. If CEO Eddie Wu can prove that the massive spending on AI infrastructure will actually lead to higher margins by the end of 2026, we could see those $200+ price targets hit sooner than people think.
But if the marketing wars for e-commerce continue to eat all the cash flow, expect the stock to stay stuck in this $160-$175 range for a while. It's a classic "show me" story.
Next Steps for Investors:
- Monitor the 13F filings: See if major players like Capital World Investors continue to increase their positions, as they did in late 2025.
- Watch the Qwen adoption rates: If downloads stay at this record-breaking pace, the Cloud segment will continue to justify the stock's valuation.
- Set a stop-loss: Given the volatility, many traders are keeping a close eye on the $147 mark (the 200-day moving average) as a final line of defense for the current bull run.