You’ve probably seen the red owl logo more times than you can count. Whether it’s a late-night snack run at Circle K or a quick gas fill-up, Alimentation Couche-Tard is everywhere. But lately, the conversation around Alimentation Couche-Tard stock hasn't just been about Slushies and lottery tickets. It’s been about a massive, high-stakes chess game involving billions of dollars and a certain global icon named 7-Eleven.
Honestly, if you're looking at the TSX right now, ATD.TO is one of those names that feels both incredibly safe and wildly ambitious at the same time. It’s a retail giant that acts like a tech-savvy underdog.
The 7-Eleven Elephant in the Room
Let's get the big news out of the way. For much of late 2024 and throughout 2025, the market was obsessed with Couche-Tard’s attempt to buy Seven & i Holdings—the parent company of 7-Eleven. This wasn't just a small expansion. We are talking about a $47 billion bid.
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It would have been the largest ever overseas takeover by a Canadian company.
But then, July 2025 happened. Couche-Tard officially withdrew the proposal. Why? Because the Japanese leadership at Seven & i basically gave them the cold shoulder. Despite Couche-Tard raising their offer, the "lack of constructive engagement" made the deal impossible to close at that time.
For investors of Alimentation Couche-Tard stock, this was a bit of a rollercoaster. Some were relieved that the company wouldn't be taking on a mountain of debt. Others were bummed because, man, imagine that global footprint. Interestingly, the money that didn't go into that acquisition was quickly funneled back to shareholders. We saw a massive share buyback program—nearly $900 million in the quarter ending October 2025 alone.
Breaking Down the Recent Numbers
If you look at the fiscal second quarter of 2026 (which ended in October 2025), the company actually did pretty well despite everyone worrying about the economy. Net earnings hit $740.6 million. That’s up from $708.8 million the year before.
People are still spending, but they’re being choosier.
Alex Miller, the CEO who took the reins from Brian Hannasch, pointed out that "meal deals" are the secret sauce right now. In the U.S., same-store merchandise revenue grew 1.2%. In Canada? A whopping 5.4% jump. A lot of that came from the "FlavorTown" menu rollout and better alcohol sales in Ontario.
Basically, Couche-Tard is becoming a fast-food player that happens to sell gas.
Dividend Growth and Shareholder Value
Is the dividend massive? No. It’s sitting around a 1.15% to 1.16% yield as of early 2026.
But don't let that low number fool you. The growth rate is what matters here. For the last three years, the average dividend growth has been over 21%. They just bumped the quarterly payout to $0.22 CAD. They aren't trying to be a high-yield utility stock; they are a "compounding machine."
When they aren't raising dividends, they are buying back shares. The company has permission to repurchase up to 77.1 million shares by July 2026. This shrinks the pool and makes your slice of the pie bigger.
Why the Stock Price is Feeling Stuck
As of mid-January 2026, Alimentation Couche-Tard stock has been hovering around the $52 USD ($73 CAD) mark. It’s off its 52-week highs.
Some analysts are scratching their heads. The P/E ratio is around 19x, which is pretty modest for a company that grows this consistently. But there are hurdles:
- Fuel Margins: In the U.S., fuel margins have been a bit soft due to competitive pressure in southern markets.
- Debt: They carry a fair bit of debt—about a 100% debt-to-equity ratio—though they are famously good at managing it.
- Consumer Fatigue: People are watching their pennies. If a "meal deal" doesn't feel like a deal, they might skip it.
What Most People Get Wrong About ATD
Everyone thinks Couche-Tard is a gas station company. They aren't. They are a logistics and real estate company that specializes in "convenience."
They are currently building 500 new stores over a five-year period. They recently opened three new distribution centers in the U.S. (Texas, Arizona, and Minnesota). This "self-distribution" model is huge. It means they control the supply chain, reduce spoilage, and keep more profit.
They also just closed the GetGo acquisition and are integrating TotalEnergies assets in Europe. They don't just wait for growth; they build or buy it.
Is Alimentation Couche-Tard Stock a Buy Right Now?
Most Wall Street and Bay Street analysts seem to think so. The consensus is a "Moderate Buy" with price targets averaging around $86 CAD. That’s a decent 15-20% upside from where it sits today.
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But you have to be patient. This isn't a tech stock that doubles in a week. It’s a slow-burn winner. The 7-Eleven deal might be dead for now, but Couche-Tard has a history of coming back to the table when the price is right.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at adding this to your portfolio, here's the play:
- Watch the February 11 Strategy Update: The company is hosting a major business strategy update in early 2026. This will be the roadmap for the next phase of growth.
- Monitor the "Meal Deal" Success: If food margins continue to rise, it offsets any weakness in gas prices.
- Don't ignore the buybacks: When the stock price dips, the company usually steps in to buy its own shares. This provides a floor for the price.
- Look at the 200-day moving average: The stock has been in a "trough." Buying when it's near its 52-week lows ($66 CAD range) has historically been a winning move for long-term holders.
Alimentation Couche-Tard remains a titan of the TSX. Whether they eventually land 7-Eleven or just keep building their own empire one Circle K at a time, the fundamentals are hard to argue with.