You've probably seen the tickers flashing red lately. It’s messy. If you’re looking at American Rare Earths stock right now, you’re likely staring at a chart that looks like a mountain range in Wyoming—steep climbs followed by some pretty gut-wrenching drops. Honestly, it’s enough to make any retail investor want to just close the app and go for a walk.
But here’s the thing. Most people are treating this like a tech stock. They want 20% gains by next Tuesday. Mining doesn't work like that. It’s slow. It’s expensive. And when you’re dealing with the stuff that makes iPhones vibrate and F-35 fighter jets fly, it’s also incredibly political.
Right now, we are in the middle of a massive tug-of-war. On one side, you have the "China dominance" reality. On the other, you have a U.S. government that is basically throwing money at anyone who can dig a hole in the ground and find Neodymium.
The Halleck Creek Reality Check
Let’s talk about Halleck Creek. This is the flagship. If you’re holding the stock, this is what you’re actually betting on.
Located in Wyoming, it’s huge. We’re talking about a resource estimate that was recently updated in late 2025 to over 2.3 billion tons. That sounds like a fake number, right? It’s not. But "in the ground" doesn't mean "in the bank."
What most people miss is the "grade" vs. "tonnage" debate. American Rare Earths has a lower grade compared to some international mines, but it’s sitting in a very friendly jurisdiction. You don't have to worry about a foreign government seizing the mine overnight. Plus, the Cowboy State Mine (CSM) area within the project has shown some standout high-grade samples recently—some hitting over 13,000 ppm TREO. That’s a big deal because it makes the economics of the upcoming Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) look a lot sexier to big institutional investors.
Why the stock is jittery in 2026
The market is being a bit of a jerk lately. Even though the company successfully produced mixed rare earths oxide (MREO) from Halleck Creek ore just a few weeks ago, the stock has been catching strays from the broader sector.
- Competitor Noise: Energy Fuels just dropped a feasibility study that showed crazy low costs. Investors see that and start wondering if American Rare Earths can keep up.
- The "Trump Effect": With the administration pushing the "One Big Beautiful Bill" and aggressive tariffs on Chinese minerals, there’s a lot of speculation. Speculation leads to volatility.
- Cash Burn: Exploration isn't cheap. The company raised about A$15 million in mid-2025, but the market is always looking at the countdown clock for the next capital raise.
Honestly, if you can’t handle a 10% swing because a Permitting Officer in Wyoming took a long lunch, this probably isn't the sector for you.
The Chris Wright Factor
You can't talk about American Rare Earths without talking about the Department of Energy. Energy Secretary Chris Wright hasn't been shy. He’s been touring labs and basically saying that America’s "complacency" is over.
The DOE recently opened up $134 million in funding specifically for rare earth recovery. While that’s often aimed at "unconventional" sources like mine tailings, it sets a tone. The government wants a domestic supply chain that doesn't go through Beijing.
For a company like American Rare Earths, this is the ultimate tailwind. They aren't just a mining company anymore; they are a national security asset. That’s a heavy title, but it’s one that comes with potential grants and "fast-track" permitting.
The Permitting Loophole
Here is a detail that gets buried in the 100-page reports: Halleck Creek is mostly on State of Wyoming land.
Why does that matter?
🔗 Read more: Five Things to Know Before the Market Opens: Why Today’s Pre-Market Data Might Be Lying to You
Because it means they might bypass a lot of the federal red tape (NEPA) that kills projects in other states. If you can permit a mine in 24 months instead of 10 years, your Net Present Value (NPV) skyrockets. The company is leaning hard into this "Wyoming Solution."
Is it a Buy or a "Wait and See"?
Look, I’m not a financial advisor. I’m just a guy who reads too many geological reports. But if you're looking at American Rare Earths stock, you have to decide what kind of investor you are.
If you’re looking for a quick flip? Good luck. The 2026 market is weird. Inflation is sticky, and the "AI supercycle" is sucking all the air out of the room.
But if you’re looking at the fact that China controls 90% of the refining for these metals—and that the U.S. is finally waking up—then the long-term thesis is pretty hard to ignore.
The company is moving into its "development phase." That’s the "valley of death" for mining stocks. It’s where you spend all your money on engineers and trucks before you sell a single gram of product. But it’s also where the biggest value is created for people who get in before the mine actually opens.
What to watch in the next 6 months
Don't just watch the price. Watch these three things:
👉 See also: Rupee to Pakistani currency: What most people get wrong about the cross-border exchange
- The PFS Release: This is the big one. It will tell us exactly how much it costs to get the dirt out of the ground and if it’s actually profitable at current market prices.
- Drilling at Red Mountain: They just got permits for more infill drilling. If they keep hitting those high-grade pockets, the "low grade" criticism starts to evaporate.
- Strategic Partnerships: Watch for names like GM, Tesla, or the DoD. If a "big boy" signs an offtake agreement, the stock likely re-rates instantly.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you’re serious about this space, stop looking at the daily fluctuations. It’ll drive you crazy.
Instead, start tracking the NdPr (Neodymium-Praseodymium) price index. That’s the real engine behind the stock. If those prices go up because of Chinese export controls, American Rare Earths becomes a lifeboat for Western manufacturers.
Also, keep an eye on the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality. Their updates are boring, but they are the literal gatekeepers of this project’s timeline.
Lastly, diversify. Don't put your whole retirement on one hole in the ground in Wyoming. Peer companies like MP Materials or even Lynas in Australia provide a bit of a buffer if one specific project hits a snag.
Mining is a game of patience. It’s about as "real economy" as it gets. You’re betting on atoms, not bits. And in 2026, atoms are becoming very, very valuable.