College basketball in January is a beautiful, chaotic mess. If you’ve been looking at the AP Top 25 NCAA rankings lately, you know exactly what I mean. It’s that specific time of year where the "New Year, New Me" energy hits certain teams like a freight train—either they're suddenly unbeatable or they're falling apart at the seams.
Arizona is currently sitting pretty at No. 1.
They aren't just winning; they are dominating. With a 16-0 record, Tommy Lloyd has his squad playing some of the most efficient basketball in the country. They grabbed 60 out of 61 first-place votes in the latest poll. That's about as close to a consensus as you'll ever get in a sport where everyone loves to argue.
But honestly? The real story isn't just who’s at the top. It’s the absolute mayhem happening in the bottom half of the bracket and the rise of the "unbeatens" that nobody saw coming.
The AP Top 25 NCAA Shakeup: Who’s Actually Legit?
The poll released on January 12, 2026, gave us a lot to chew on. Michigan finally blinked. After sitting at No. 2 and pushing Arizona for that top spot, they took a loss to Wisconsin. That opened the door for Iowa State to slide up to No. 2.
If you haven't been watching the Big 12, you're missing out. It's a bloodbath. Iowa State is 16-0, but they're sharing a conference with Houston (No. 7) and BYU (No. 11). Every Wednesday night in that league feels like a Final Four matchup.
Then there's the Vanderbilt situation.
Most people associate Vanderbilt with high academic standards and maybe a decent baseball team. But basketball? They just cracked the Top 10 for the first time since 2011. They are 16-0. They’re ranked No. 10, and their win over Alabama was the final nudge the voters needed to take them seriously.
- Arizona (1): 16-0, basically the gold standard right now.
- Iowa State (2): 16-0, the best of a very deep Big 12.
- UConn (3): 16-1, Dan Hurley’s group is still terrifying.
- Michigan (4): 14-1, dropped two spots but the analytics still love them.
- Purdue (5): 15-1, because Purdue is always there.
The Biggest Winners and Losers This Week
Virginia is back. Ryan Odom has the Cavaliers playing that suffocating defense again, and they jumped seven spots to No. 16. That’s the biggest leap of the week.
On the flip side, Alabama is struggling. They tumbled five spots to No. 18. Losses to Vanderbilt and Texas have people wondering if the Crimson Tide can actually defend when the shots aren't falling.
And let's talk about Florida. They were No. 3 in the preseason, fell out of the rankings entirely, and now they’re back at No. 19. It’s a roller coaster. If you’re betting on these games, I truly apologize to your wallet.
Why the Rankings Don't Always Match the "Eye Test"
You’ll often see a team like Michigan (No. 4) ranked lower than Iowa State (No. 2) despite the "math" saying Michigan is better. This is where the AP Top 25 NCAA differs from things like KenPom or the NET rankings.
The AP poll is human. It’s 61 sportswriters and broadcasters who care about who you beat and when you lost.
Metrics don't care about "momentum." Humans do. If you lose to an unranked Wisconsin team on a Saturday afternoon, the AP voters are going to punish you. Meanwhile, the computers look at your margin of victory and strength of schedule and might still think you're the best team in the world.
💡 You might also like: Finding the Right Los Angeles Dodgers Poster: Why Most Fans Settle for Boring Art
Nebraska is another great example. They are 16-0 and sitting at No. 8. That matches a program record from 1966. Are they actually the 8th best team in the country? Maybe. But they haven't faced the same gauntlet that a team like Duke (No. 6) or Houston (No. 7) has.
Mid-Major Magic or Temporary Hype?
Utah State (No. 23) and Seton Hall (No. 25) are the new kids on the block this week.
Seton Hall hasn't been ranked since 2022. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 and just beat some tough Quad 1 opponents. But here's the catch: they have to play No. 3 UConn next. This is usually where the "feel-good" stories of the AP poll go to die.
The poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.
Actionable Insights for College Hoops Fans
If you're following the AP Top 25 NCAA to keep track of your team or just to stay informed for March, here's what you should actually be looking at:
- Watch the "Others Receiving Votes": Saint Louis and Kansas are right on the edge. Kansas actually fell out of the poll this week, which is rare for them. They usually bounce back with a vengeance.
- Conference Depth Matters: The SEC has six teams in the Top 25, but five of them are ranked 17th or lower. This means they're all going to beat each other up for the next two months.
- The Home Court Factor: Texas Tech (No. 15) is 8-0 at home. If you see a Top 25 team going on the road to an unranked opponent in a loud arena, that’s where the "upset" happens that changes the poll on Monday.
- Strength of Schedule vs. Record: Don't be fooled by the 16-0 starts from teams like Nebraska or Vanderbilt until they hit the heart of conference play. The next three weeks will tell us if they are contenders or just beneficiaries of a soft early schedule.
The rankings will change again next Monday at noon. Until then, enjoy the madness. Check the schedule for those top-tier matchups—like Seton Hall vs. UConn—because those are the games that define the next version of the list. Keep an eye on the Big 12 standings specifically, as that conference is likely to produce the most movement in the top ten over the next month.