Honestly, if you feel like the news about trade wars and taxes on imports changes every single time you refresh your feed, you're not alone. The short answer is a loud, resounding yes. Tariffs are not just "still in effect"—they have actually become the primary tool of American economic policy in 2026.
But it’s messy.
If you’re looking for a simple "yes" or "no" regarding your favorite imported sneakers or that new laptop, you won't find it in a vacuum. We’ve moved past the era where a few specific goods from China were taxed. Now, as of January 17, 2026, the United States is operating under a complex "layering" system of tariffs that touches almost every corner of the globe.
The effective tariff rate on all imports into the U.S. has climbed to roughly 17%. Compare that to early 2025, when it was just a tiny 2.2%. That is a massive jump. It’s the difference between a minor annoyance and a fundamental shift in how much things cost at the register.
Why are tariffs still in effect and growing?
The landscape changed dramatically throughout 2025. While many people expected the "trade war" talk to simmer down, the current administration leaned in. Hard.
The legal backbone for most of these current taxes is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). It’s a powerful tool. By declaring national emergencies over trade deficits and "lack of reciprocity," the White House has bypassed the traditional, slow-moving legislative process to slap duties on goods from nearly every trading partner.
Take the latest headlines from just this morning. President Trump vowed to ramp up tariffs on European allies—including Denmark, France, and the UK—specifically over a dispute involving Greenland.
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Starting February 1, 2026, those countries are looking at a 10% import tariff. By June, if no "deal" is reached, that spikes to 25%. This isn't just about steel or aluminum anymore; it’s about using trade as a stick for geopolitical goals that have nothing to do with the factory floor.
The China Situation: It’s complicated
You might remember the old Section 301 tariffs from a few years back. Those are still the "OG" tariffs, but they’ve been joined by new ones.
Interestingly, there’s currently a bit of a "truce" with Beijing. Under an agreement reached late last year, the U.S. suspended some of its most aggressive reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods until November 10, 2026.
Does that mean China-made goods are cheap again? Not exactly.
- The effective tariff rate on Chinese imports is still sitting around 32% to 37%.
- "Fentanyl-related" tariffs (imposed via IEEPA) were recently lowered from 20% to 10% as part of a temporary deal.
- Section 301 duties on items like electric vehicles and semiconductors remain high, with some rates hitting 100%.
Basically, we’re in a holding pattern. China agreed to stop some retaliatory agricultural taxes, and in exchange, the U.S. hit the "pause" button on even higher hikes. But the base level of taxes remains significantly higher than anything we saw in the previous decade.
The "Greenland Row" and the European Front
It’s wild to think that trade policy is being dictated by the status of a semi-autonomous Danish territory, but that’s where we are in 2026.
The U.S. has targeted a specific list of countries:
- Denmark
- Norway
- Sweden
- France
- Germany
- The UK
- The Netherlands
- Finland
These nations are already subject to "reciprocal" tariffs that vary between 10% and 41% depending on the specific product. The new "Greenland" duties are an additional layer. If you're buying a German car or French wine this spring, expect the price tag to reflect this diplomatic tug-of-war.
What’s happening with Canada and Mexico?
The USMCA (the "new NAFTA") used to be a shield. It still is, mostly.
Roughly 89% of imports from Canada and Mexico still claim exemptions under the trade agreement. However, even these neighbors haven't stayed completely unscathed. There are ongoing "National Emergency" tariffs related to border security and drug trafficking that have added 25% duties on many goods, though most Canadian potash remains at a 10% rate for now.
It's a weird "friend-enemy" dynamic. One day we’re partners; the next day there’s a new 10% baseline tax because of a "national emergency" declaration.
Real-world impact: Who is paying?
There is a common misconception that the exporting country pays the tariff. They don’t. The American company importing the goods pays the check to U.S. Customs.
According to recent data from the Tax Policy Center, the average U.S. household is looking at a $2,100 burden in 2026 due to these tariffs. That isn’t a direct tax bill you see in April, but it’s baked into the price of your milk (if it uses imported components), your new roof (steel/aluminum), and your electronics.
Major companies are feeling the heat, too:
- Ford reported about $700 million in tariff costs recently.
- John Deere cited a $600 million hit.
- Stellantis (which owns Chrysler/Jeep) is managing a bill of over 1 billion euros.
Some of these companies are getting "refunds" through specialized adjustment programs, but for the average small business, there is no such safety net. You either eat the cost or pass it to the customer.
Is the Supreme Court going to stop this?
This is the billion-dollar question.
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There are several cases currently sitting with the Supreme Court, most notably Trump v. CASA, Inc. and challenges to the IEEPA authority. The central argument is whether a President can use "emergency powers" to tax the entire world indefinitely without Congress.
Legal experts are split. Some think the Court will rule that the President overstepped. Others note that the longer the Court delays its decision, the more these tariffs become "settled" parts of the economy. Even if the Court does strike them down, the administration has already hinted at using Section 122 (which allows 150-day "emergency" tariffs) or Section 338 to just put the taxes right back in place under a different name.
Actionable insights for 2026
If you’re a consumer or a business owner, "wait and see" is a dangerous strategy. The era of cheap, frictionless global trade is currently on ice.
Watch the "Melt and Pour" rules. If you’re in manufacturing, it’s no longer enough to know where you bought your steel. New rules require you to report where the steel was "melted and poured" and where the aluminum was "smelted and cast." If you can't prove it was made in a preferred country, you’re getting hit with a 50% duty.
Check for exclusions. The government does grant exclusions for products that can't be made in the U.S., but these are getting harder to get. Most "General Approved Exclusions" (GAEs) were terminated in 2025. You have to apply for specific, firm-level exemptions now.
Diversify, but carefully. Moving production from China to Vietnam or India doesn't guarantee safety anymore. The U.S. has started applying "reciprocal" tariffs to those countries too—India currently faces high rates specifically because of its trade in Russian oil.
Budget for a 15-20% price "drift." When looking at long-term contracts or major household purchases (like a kitchen remodel), assume that tariff-related inflation will add a significant premium. The "effective" rate is climbing, and businesses are running out of ways to absorb the costs.
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The bottom line? Tariffs are the "new normal." They aren't just remnants of a past administration; they are the active, aggressive heart of the current U.S. economic strategy.
Prepare for the "Greenland" hikes in February. Keep an eye on the Supreme Court in the spring. Most importantly, don't expect those 2019 prices to come back anytime soon. The trade map has been redrawn, and the pen is still moving.