Politics in the Grand Canyon State has always been a little weird. But the Arizona 2024 senate race? That was a different level of strange. You had a state that went comfortably for Donald Trump on the presidential side, yet somehow, Ruben Gallego managed to pull off a win for the Democrats. It’s the kind of split-brain voting that leaves pundits scratching their heads for months.
Honestly, if you looked at the raw numbers, you’d think two different states were voting on the same day.
Why the Arizona 2024 Senate Race Went the Way It Did
Ruben Gallego didn't just win; he carved out a very specific niche. He ended up with 1,676,335 votes, which gave him roughly 50.1% of the total. His opponent, Kari Lake, pulled in 1,595,761 votes, landing at about 47.7%. Now, here is where it gets interesting: Trump won Arizona by over 180,000 votes, but Lake underperformed him significantly. Basically, 174,481 people who voted for Trump decided they just couldn't pull the lever for Lake.
That’s a lot of people.
Gallego, on the other hand, grabbed 93,475 more votes than Kamala Harris did in the state. He managed to convince a slice of the electorate—mostly moderate Republicans and independents—that he was a "safe" bet, despite his history as a fairly progressive member of the House.
The Power of the Latino Vote
You can't talk about Arizona without talking about the Latino community. It's roughly a third of the state. In this race, Gallego basically became the first Latino ever elected to the Senate from Arizona. Exit polls showed he won 60% of the Hispanic vote. Contrast that with Harris, who only got 54% in the same demographic.
That 6% gap is huge. It suggests that for many Latino voters, the "Ruben" brand was stronger than the "Democrat" brand.
🔗 Read more: Linda McMahon: Why Everyone is Talking About A1 Instead of AI
The Money Gap
Gallego also had a massive war chest. We’re talking $64.4 million raised compared to Lake’s $21.4 million. In a state where airtime is expensive, especially in the Phoenix and Tucson markets, that 3-to-1 advantage meant Gallego could define himself before Lake even got a chance to counter-attack. He ran ads focused on his time as an Iraq War veteran and his "up-by-the-bootstraps" story.
It worked.
The Issues That Moved the Needle
Abortion was the elephant in the room. Throughout the Arizona 2024 senate race, Gallego hammered Lake on her past comments regarding Arizona’s 1864 near-total abortion ban. Even when Lake tried to moderate her stance—which, by the way, annoyed some of her hardcore base—the Gallego campaign didn't let up. They spent millions making sure every suburban woman in Maricopa County knew exactly what she’d said in 2022.
Lake tried to flip the script by focusing on the border. She called Gallego an "open borders" radical. And look, the border is a massive issue here. Arizona saw record crossings during the Biden administration. But Gallego played defense pretty well. He leaned into his Marine background and started talking more about "smart" border security.
It wasn't that voters necessarily loved the Democratic border policy; it's more that Lake's messenger-style didn't land with the middle of the road.
✨ Don't miss: What Really Happened With the Koch Brothers Sue Trump Rumors
The "McCain Republican" Factor
Kari Lake has a history of... let's say, challenging the legacy of the late John McCain. In Arizona, that’s a risky move. There is a whole segment of the GOP that still respects the "Maverick" style of politics. Lake basically told them to get out of the room during her 2022 run for Governor, and they seemingly didn't forget.
When you lose by about 2.4 percentage points, every group you alienate matters. If she had captured even a fraction of those disgruntled Republicans, we’d be looking at a very different Senate right now.
What This Means for 2026 and Beyond
Arizona is no longer a "red" state. It’s not a "blue" state either. It’s a "purple" state that behaves very differently depending on who is on the ballot. The success of candidates like Gallego and Mark Kelly shows that Arizona voters respond well to military service and a somewhat pragmatic, "fighter" persona.
Republicans in the state are now facing a bit of a crossroads. Do they double down on the populist, MAGA-style candidates, or do they look for someone who can appeal to those suburban voters in Mesa and Gilbert?
👉 See also: George Washington: What Most People Get Wrong About His Presidency
Next Steps for Following Arizona Politics:
- Watch the 2026 Midterms: All 30 seats in the Arizona State Senate are up for grabs. Currently, Republicans hold a slim 17-13 lead. This will be the next big test of whether the state is trending further left or snapping back.
- Track Gallego's Voting Record: As a freshman Senator, see if he maintains the "moderate" tone he used on the campaign trail or shifts back to his progressive roots. This will likely dictate his re-election chances in six years.
- Monitor Voter Registration: Keep an eye on the "Other" (Independent) registration numbers. They are the fastest-growing group in Arizona and the ones who actually decided this race.