You’ve probably seen it a hundred times. You check the weather on your phone while sitting in your kitchen in New Brunswick or Philly, and it says "clear skies." Then you drive an hour east, cross the bridge, and suddenly you're staring at a wall of gray clouds over the Stone Pony.
Honestly, Asbury Park hourly weather is its own animal.
It’s not just a "shore thing." It’s physics. The Atlantic Ocean acts like a giant, moody air conditioner that refuses to be turned off. Today, January 17, 2026, is a perfect example of that coastal weirdness. While the rest of the state might be bracing for a standard winter afternoon, Asbury is sitting at a crisp 40°F with a humidity level of 53%. It’s cloudy, kinda damp, and feels exactly like 34°F thanks to a 9 mph southwest wind.
If you're planning to head down for a walk on the boards or a show tonight, don't trust the inland forecast.
The Science of the "Shore Shiver"
Why does the temperature drop five degrees the second you hit the Garden State Parkway Exit 102? It’s basically all about the water. The sea temperature right now is hovering around 41°F. That massive body of water holds its temperature way longer than the pavement on Cookman Avenue.
In the spring, the ocean stays freezing while the land heats up, creating a "marine layer" that can keep Asbury ten degrees cooler than Freehold. In the winter, like right now, it can actually keep the coast a tiny bit "warmer"—if you can call 40 degrees warm—compared to the deep-freeze happening in the northwest part of the state.
But there’s a catch.
The wind.
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Today’s wind is coming from the southwest at 9 mph, but it's expected to pick up. By the time we hit the evening hours, we're looking at 12 mph gusts. That’s enough to make "light rain" feel like needles on your face.
What to Expect Hour by Hour Today
If you’re looking at the Asbury Park hourly weather for this Saturday, the big story is the transition. We’re currently in a "cloudy" holding pattern, but the atmospheric pressure is shifting.
- Midday: We are peaking at a high of 41°F. It’s the warmest you’re going to get.
- Afternoon: There is a 64% chance of precipitation. Even though the ground is "warm" enough for rain, the upper atmosphere is tossing down snow. Expect a messy, slushy mix that makes the boardwalk slippery.
- Tonight: Temperatures will dip to a low of 34°F. The chance of snow drops significantly to about 20%, leaving us with just thick, heavy clouds.
Basically, if you’re heading to Wonder Bar for Yappy Hour or grabbing dinner at Pascal & Sabine, wear the boots. Not the fashion ones. The waterproof ones.
The Flooding Factor
Most people don't realize that a simple rain forecast in Asbury isn't just about umbrellas. It’s about the tides. With roughly 24% of properties in town at some risk of flooding, a "light rain" combined with a high tide can turn Deal Lake Drive into a splash zone. Always check the tide charts alongside the hourly forecast. If the tide is coming in while the sky is opening up, the drainage slows down to a crawl.
Real Talk on Weather Apps
Stop using the generic "Weather" app that comes on your phone. It usually pulls data from an airport miles away—usually Monmouth Executive or even Newark. For Asbury, you want something that looks at the marine buoys. Windy.com is a favorite for the surfers at the 8th Avenue jetty for a reason; it tracks the actual movement of the air over the water, not just the "average" for the zip code. AccuWeather's MinuteCast is also decent for dodging those 15-minute coastal squalls that pop up out of nowhere.
Actionable Tips for Your Trip Today
- Layer for the Wind: A heavy wool coat looks great, but if it's not windproof, that 12 mph southwest breeze will cut right through it. Think shells over sweaters.
- Watch the Jetty: If you see the spray hitting the top of the rocks, the wind is stronger than the forecast says.
- Park High: If the rain picks up around 4:00 PM, avoid the lower spots near the lakes. Stick to the higher ground near Kingsley Street if you're worried about your car’s floorboards.
- Check the "Feels Like": Today it says 40°F, but it feels like 34°F. Dress for the 30s.
The shore is beautiful in the winter, but it's unforgiving if you're underdressed. Keep an eye on the sky—when those clouds over the Atlantic turn that specific shade of "bruised purple," you’ve got about ten minutes to get inside.
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Check the live radar around 2:00 PM today to see if that 64% snow-chance is trending toward your specific block. Otherwise, enjoy the quiet version of the city while the summer crowds are still months away.