You’ve probably seen the tickers flashing green lately. Aya Gold and Silver stock (TSX: AYA) is currently having a bit of a moment, and if you're holding a bag or just watching from the sidelines, there is a lot to unpack. On January 13, 2026, the company dropped its Q4 2025 production numbers, and they were, frankly, kind of massive.
We are talking about record-breaking silver production. 1.37 million ounces in a single quarter. That brought their full-year 2025 total to 4.83 million ounces of silver from the Zgounder mine alone. When you add in the Boumadine tailings, the corporation hit over 5 million silver equivalent ounces for the year.
But here is the thing.
The market is a fickle beast. Even with "record" production, the stock has been jumping around because the Q4 numbers actually came in slightly under what some analysts—like those at BMO Capital—were whispering about. They wanted 1.44 million ounces. They got 1.37 million. Is that a disaster? Hardly. But in the world of high-stakes mining stocks, a miss is a miss, even when you're breaking your own records.
The Zgounder Engine and Why It Matters
Most people look at a mining stock and just see the price of silver. That’s a mistake. With Aya, you have to look at the plumbing. The Zgounder mine in Morocco is the heartbeat here.
In December 2025, the mill at Zgounder wasn't just running; it was screaming. It averaged 4,107 tonnes per day (tpd). To put that in perspective, the "nameplate" capacity—basically the manufacturer's suggested speed—is much lower. They are running at 41% above what the equipment was technically designed to do. That is pure operational grit.
Aya's CEO, Benoit La Salle, has been pretty vocal about this. He basically said the ramp-up is done. 2025 was the year of building and 2026 is the year of "disciplined execution." They are targeting 6 million ounces of silver this year. If they hit that, the cash flow story changes completely.
The Analyst Tug-of-War
If you look at the big banks, they can't quite agree on where this is going. It's a classic bull vs. bear setup.
- BMO Capital Markets: They actually cut their price target recently from C$33.00 down to C$29.00. Why? They’re a bit worried about the grade of the ore and the cost of pulling it out.
- Desjardins: These guys are much more bullish. They bumped their target up to C$32.00 in late December, giving it a solid "buy" rating.
- CIBC: They also recently upped their target to C$30.00.
Honestly, the "fair value" estimates are all over the place. Some models suggest the stock is worth about C$24.89, which is close to where it’s trading now. But if you talk to the dreamers on the retail side, they see targets as high as C$100. That’s probably a bit much, but it shows the divide.
The Boumadine Wildcard
If Zgounder is the cash cow, Boumadine is the lottery ticket. It’s a polymetallic project, which is just a fancy way of saying it has a bit of everything: gold, silver, zinc, and lead.
Aya is planning an 8,000 tpd operation there. If they get it right, we’re looking at 30 million ounces of silver equivalent annually. That would catapult Aya from a mid-tier producer to a serious global player. They’ve got a massive 360,000-meter drilling program planned for the next two years. That is a lot of holes in the ground and a lot of data for investors to digest.
A discovery of a new high-grade parallel structure was announced in November 2025. It’s these kinds of "surprises" that keep the momentum high, even when the broader market is being boring.
Risks Nobody Likes to Talk About
Look, it isn't all sunshine and silver bars. There are real risks with Aya Gold and Silver stock that get buried in the PR gloss.
First, concentration risk. Almost everything they have is in Morocco. Now, Morocco is generally considered a mining-friendly jurisdiction, but having all your eggs in one geographic basket is always a gamble. If regulations change or local issues arise, there’s no "Plan B" mine in Canada or Australia to balance the books.
Second, there's the grade dilution. To keep those mills running at 41% above capacity, they are processing a lot of material. Sometimes, to get the volume, you end up with lower-quality ore. In Q4 2025, the average head grade was 134 g/t Ag. That’s down from 146 g/t in the previous quarter. It’s a trade-off: more volume, but less silver per ton.
Then you have the insiders. Recently, there were some secondary market transactions where high-level insiders sold some shares. The company says they still have a "substantial long-term stake," but seeing the Chair or an Independent Director sell C$308k worth of stock usually makes retail investors a bit jumpy.
The 2026 Outlook
So, what's the play? The company is moving from a "growth" phase into an "optimization" phase.
They have over 194,000 tonnes of ore sitting in stockpiles. That’s a massive safety net. If the mine has a bad week, the mill can keep spinning because the rocks are already sitting there waiting. This "stockpile strategy" is one of the reasons they were able to hit record production in December.
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The revenue forecast for the upcoming quarters is around $67.89M. They are expected to grow earnings by over 50% per year for the next few years. That is aggressive. It requires silver prices to stay relatively strong—currently hovering in that $48-$51/oz range—and for the Zgounder expansion to stay efficient.
Practical Steps for Investors
If you're looking at Aya Gold and Silver stock as a potential addition to your portfolio, you shouldn't just "market buy" and hope for the best.
- Watch the Silver-to-Gold Ratio: Aya is a "pure-play" silver producer. When silver outperforms gold, AYA tends to move like a rocket. If silver is lagging, the operational records won't save the stock price.
- Monitor the Grade: Keep a close eye on the "grams per tonne" (g/t) in the quarterly reports. If that number keeps dropping while production goes up, the company is just running faster to stay in the same place.
- The Boumadine Feasibility: The real "re-rating" of the stock will happen when the feasibility study for Boumadine comes out in 2027. Until then, it's a lot of speculation and "drill hole" news.
- Earnings Date: Mark March 31, 2026, on your calendar. That’s when the next full earnings report drops. Expect volatility around that date as the market digests the actual profit margins versus the production headlines.
Investing in junior or mid-tier miners is basically a bet on management and geology. Right now, the geology is cooperating, and management is hitting their marks. Just don't ignore the fact that mining is a messy, expensive business where the "record" results of today are already priced in for tomorrow.
Next, you can analyze the specific impact of the EBRD’s $25 million credit facility on the Boumadine timeline to see if the 2027 construction target is actually realistic.
Detailed monitoring of the Zgounder mill throughput vs. the head grade will be the most telling metric for the first half of 2026.
Investors should also keep an eye on the Moroccan Dirham volatility, as local operating costs are sensitive to currency fluctuations against the US Dollar.
Stay focused on the cash flow transition. If Aya can turn these record ounces into a consistent dividend or further debt reduction in 2026, the "value" score from analysts will finally catch up to the "growth" score.
The 2026 drilling results from the Asirem and Tizi zones will likely dictate the short-term sentiment more than the silver price itself.
Ensure you are watching the short interest levels, which recently stood around 1.65 days to cover, as any sudden squeeze could lead to the kind of 12% single-day jumps seen earlier this month.
Finalizing your position before the Q1 2026 data release in late March is a common strategy for those betting on a continued production beat.
Maintaining a balanced view of the geopolitical stability in the Anti-Atlas fault region is essential for long-term holders.
Keep a close eye on the 50-day moving average, which is currently around C$18.20, as it serves as a key technical support level for the stock.
The upcoming board transitions and any further secondary market transactions will provide clues into the internal confidence levels for the 2027-2028 roadmap.