Honestly, whenever the schedule drops and you see the Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts on the slate, it usually feels like a solid, mid-tier regional rivalry. It's the "I-74 Series." A quick two-hour drive for fans. But looking at the 2026 NFL landscape, this upcoming meeting at Lucas Oil Stadium isn’t just another game. It’s a collision of two franchises trying to prove their 2025 trajectories weren't fluke accidents.
The Bengals are coming off a 2025 season where Joe Burrow finally stayed upright for the long haul, reminding the AFC North that a healthy "Joe Cool" is basically a cheat code. Meanwhile, the Colts spent last year navigating a bizarre quarterback carousel that saw Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, and even a late-season cameo from a retired Philip Rivers. Now, as the 2026 rosters take shape, this matchup is the ultimate litmus test for the AFC's middle class.
The Quarterback Quagmire in Indy
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Or rather, the horse.
The Indianapolis Colts are in a fascinating spot. General Manager Chris Ballard just spent the early part of January 2026 defending his roster construction after a third-place finish in the AFC South. They have talent. They have Jonathan Taylor, who just put up 20 total touchdowns in 2025. They even have Sauce Gardner roaming the secondary now—a move that still feels weird to see in blue and white.
But who is throwing the ball?
Anthony Richardson’s health remains the $200 million question. We saw Riley Leonard step in for his first career start in January 2026 and look... actually good? He went 21-of-34 for 270 yards and two scores against Houston. If the Colts decide Leonard is the future, or if Richardson is finally "back" back, the Bengals' defense is going to have its hands full with a dual-threat nightmare.
Cincinnati’s "Almost" Dynasty
Cincy is weird.
One week they look like they’re going to blow the doors off the Ravens, and the next, they’re struggling to protect Burrow against a four-man rush. In 2025, we saw Myles Garrett break the single-season sack record, and a good chunk of that highlight reel felt like it came at the expense of the Bengals' right tackle.
Still, you’ve got Ja’Marr Chase. The man just coming off what he called a "crazy season" in 2025. When the Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts matchup kicks off, the primary concern for Indy’s defensive coordinator is going to be how to keep Chase and Tee Higgins (assuming the franchise tag drama is settled) from turning the deep third into a track meet.
Why the "I-74" Factor Matters
It’s not just about the X’s and O’s. This is a travel game that isn’t really a travel game.
- Fan Takeover: Expect Paycor Stadium South. Bengals fans travel to Indy in droves because it’s a straight shot down the highway.
- The Lou Anarumo Connection: There’s been non-stop chatter in early 2026 about Bengals DC Lou Anarumo being a head coaching candidate for teams like the Colts if things sour with Shane Steichen. That adds a layer of "audition" energy to the sidelines.
- The 2025 Preseason Hangover: Believe it or not, players remember the 41-14 drumming the Colts gave the Bengals in the 2025 preseason finale. Sure, it was backups, but the "vibe" of that loss lingered.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
People love to say the Colts are "a quarterback away."
That’s a lazy take. In reality, the Colts’ 2025 struggles were as much about defensive consistency as they were about Daniel Jones' erratic play. They have a first-team All-Pro in Quenton Nelson and a legit superstar in Jonathan Taylor, but they’ve struggled to close out games against elite AFC competition.
For the Bengals, the misconception is that they are a "finesse" team. If you watched them in late 2025, especially that Thanksgiving win over Baltimore, you saw a team that can actually run the damn ball when they want to.
Statistical Reality Check
If we look at the historical data, the Colts actually lead the all-time series 60–45. That's a lot of history. But the recent trend is a seesaw.
- 2024: Colts won a 35-34 thriller.
- 2023: Bengals blew them out 34-14.
- 2021: Bengals won by 24.
It’s never a blowout twice in a row. Usually, these games come down to a single Evan McPherson field goal or a late-game turnover by a pressured quarterback.
Key Matchups to Circle
Sauce Gardner vs. Ja'Marr Chase
This is the heavyweight fight. Sauce was a first-team All-Pro for Indy in 2025. Chase is... well, he’s Ja'Marr Chase. If Sauce can travel with Chase and take away the vertical threat, the Bengals' offense becomes a lot more human.
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Trey Hendrickson vs. Bernhard Raimann
Hendrickson is a motor that never stops. If the Colts can’t protect the blind side, it doesn't matter if it's Richardson, Leonard, or a time-traveling Peyton Manning back there—they won't have time to find Alec Pierce downfield.
How to Prepare for Game Day
If you're heading to Lucas Oil Stadium for the Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts game, or just watching from the couch, here is how you should actually evaluate what's happening:
- Watch the first 15 plays: Zac Taylor is a scripted-play specialist. If the Bengals don't score on their first two drives, they often go into a mid-game funk.
- Check the Jonathan Taylor carry count: If JT has 12 carries by halftime, the Colts are winning. If he has 5, they’re panicking.
- The "Third Down" Indicator: Cincy struggled on 3rd-and-long in 2025. If the Colts' pass rush is getting home early, it’s going to be a long day for Burrow.
Take a look at the injury reports 48 hours before kickoff. With the way the 2025 season ended for both teams—Cincy dealing with DT Kris Jenkins Jr.'s ankle issues and Indy missing Sauce Gardner in Week 18 due to a calf strain—health is the only stat that truly matters. This isn't just a game in the standings; it's a battle for the hierarchy of the AFC.