So, it's mid-January 2026, and if you're like me, you've spent way too much time refreshing your feed waiting for the "Hot Stove" to actually, you know, heat up. We've seen some absolute monsters come off the board already—Juan Soto’s $765 million deal with the Mets feels like it happened a lifetime ago, doesn't it?—but the list of best MLB free agents still looking for a home is surprisingly deep.
Honestly, the vibes this winter are just... different.
Teams are being super cautious. We’ve got All-Stars sitting around waiting for the phone to ring while front offices obsess over luxury tax thresholds and "player value metrics." It's kinda frustrating if you're a fan of a team that clearly needs a bat but is instead signing 34-year-old relievers to minor-league deals.
The Big Fish Still Swimming
Let’s talk about Kyle Tucker. He is basically the gold standard for what an outfielder should be in 2026. Consistent power, elite defense, and he’s been a WAR machine for half a decade. Most people figured he’d have signed a $250 million deal by Christmas, yet here we are. The Blue Jays seem like the obvious fit—they need that left-handed thump to pair with Vlad Jr.—but the Yankees and Dodgers are always lurking in the shadows.
Then you have Cody Bellinger. He’s the ultimate "high-risk, high-reward" guy. One year he looks like an MVP, the next he’s struggling to hit .210. But after a vintage 2025 season, he's asking for top-tier money. You’ve gotta wonder if a team like the Mets, even after the Soto splash, decides they want to just go full "Evil Empire" and grab him too.
The Infield Logjam
If your team needs a third baseman, you’re looking at Alex Bregman. Or at least you were, until the Cubs finally pulled the trigger on that five-year, $175 million deal a few days ago. That move really shifted the market. With Bregman off the board, guys like Bo Bichette and Eugenio Suárez are suddenly seeing their stock soar.
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Bichette is an interesting case. He had a massive "prove it" year in 2025 after some injury scares, and now he’s looking for a long-term home. There were rumors about him heading to Boston, especially since the Red Sox have been weirdly quiet on the free-agent front despite promising to spend. If they miss out on the remaining best MLB free agents, that fan base is going to lose it.
The Arms Race: Framber and the Old Guard
Pitching is where things get really localized and, frankly, a bit desperate. With Ranger Suárez heading to the Red Sox on a $130 million deal and Dylan Cease already locked up in Toronto for $210 million, the pool is getting shallow.
Framber Valdez is the undisputed king of the remaining starters. The guy is a ground-ball machine. If you have a decent infield defense, you want Framber. He’s 32, so he’s not looking for a 10-year deal, but he’s going to get paid. The Orioles or even a reunion with the Astros (though they just signed Tatsuya Imai) make sense here.
And then there are the legends.
- Justin Verlander: He’s 43. He’s still throwing 95. It’s actually kind of insane.
- Max Scherzer: Still has that "I will kill you" look in his eyes every time he takes the mound.
- Walker Buehler: The ultimate reclamation project. Someone is going to give him a one-year "pillow" contract hoping he finds that 2021 form again.
Why the Market is Moving Slow
You’ve probably noticed that teams aren't just throwing money at everyone this year. It's not because they're broke—it's because they're terrified of the "age curve."
Look at Paul Goldschmidt. He’s a legend, but at 38, he’s a massive question mark. He started 2025 like a Hall of Famer and finished it looking like he was ready for a rocking chair. Teams are seeing that and thinking, "Do I really want to pay $20 million for a guy who might hit .220 in August?"
Also, the international market is siphoning off some of the budget. The White Sox just grabbed Munetaka Murakami, and everyone is still trying to figure out where Roki Sasaki will land (though the Dodgers seem like the betting favorite). When you can get a 24-year-old superstar from Japan, you might be less inclined to overpay for a 32-year-old veteran.
What Should Your Team Do?
If you're a GM, you're playing a game of chicken. You know these players want to be in camp by February. The closer we get to Spring Training, the more the "asking price" starts to drop.
The Best Value Plays Right Now:
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- Luis Arraez: He just hits. No power, no speed, but he’ll give you a .310 average and won't strike out. In a league obsessed with "three true outcomes," he's a refreshing throwback.
- Chris Bassitt: He’s the definition of a "workhorse." He won't win a Cy Young, but he’ll give you 180 innings of 3.80 ERA ball.
- J.T. Realmuto: He’s 35, but he’s still the most athletic catcher in the game. A short-term, high-AAV deal for a contender? Perfect.
Actionable Next Steps for Baseball Fans
Watching free agency is basically a full-time job in January. If you want to stay ahead of the curve, here is what you actually need to do instead of just reading "maybe" tweets:
- Watch the Luxury Tax Apron: Keep an eye on teams like the Phillies and Braves. They are right at the edge. If they make a move for one of the best MLB free agents, a corresponding trade is almost certainly coming to shed salary.
- Check the "International Amateur" Deadlines: Especially for Roki Sasaki. His signing window is narrow. Once he signs, the "losing" teams (probably the Padres or Giants) will pivot immediately to the remaining MLB vets.
- Follow Local Beats, Not Just National: The national guys get the "it's done" news. Local beat writers for the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Mariners are the ones who notice which agents are actually visiting the facilities.
The market is going to break soon. It always does. One big domino—likely Kyle Tucker—will fall, and then we’ll see five signings in 24 hours. Until then, keep your notifications on and your expectations tempered.