Honestly, if you’re looking at the betting odds for nfl playoffs right now and thinking it’s a straightforward path to the Super Bowl, you haven’t been paying attention. It is Sunday, January 18, 2026, and the Divisional Round has already flipped the script. We just watched the Denver Broncos survive a 33-30 overtime thriller against Buffalo, but it came at a massive cost. Bo Nix is out. Broken ankle. Just like that, the AFC favorites are handing the keys to Jarrett Stidham.
Betting is chaos.
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The markets are reacting in real-time. Most casual bettors see a "1" seed and hammer the moneyline, but the smart money is currently sweating the details in Foxborough and Chicago. Today’s double-header features the Houston Texans visiting the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams traveling to the frozen tundra of Soldier Field to face the Bears.
Why the Lines are Moving Right Now
You’ve probably noticed the Patriots sitting as 3-point favorites against C.J. Stroud and the Texans. On paper, New England’s defense is a nightmare. They completely shut down Justin Herbert and the Chargers last week, winning 16-3. But here’s the thing about the betting odds for nfl playoffs: they often overvalue recent dominance and undervalue matchup specifics.
Stroud is a different animal than Herbert was behind that banged-up Chargers line. Houston’s offense is predicated on quick rhythm, and while the Patriots' secondary is elite, the Texans' defensive front—ranked No. 1 this season—is the real reason this +145 moneyline for Houston is catching so much "sharp" action.
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The Quarterback Void in Denver
The Broncos were +700 to win the Super Bowl yesterday morning. After the Nix injury news hit the wires following their win over the Bills, they plummeted to +1000. It’s a 14-3 team that is now a home underdog for the AFC Championship game before we even know who they’re playing. That is unprecedented.
Jarrett Stidham isn't a rookie, but he isn't Bo Nix.
- Market Overcorrection: Sometimes the books move the line too far.
- Implied Probability: A move from +700 to +1000 suggests Denver's chances of winning it all dropped from roughly 12.5% to 9%.
- The "Payton" Factor: Sean Payton is 4-0 in playoff games coming off a bye, but he's never done it with a backup.
The NFC Power Shift
Over in the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks are currently the "it" team. They just dismantled the 49ers 41-6. Forty-one to six. It was a bloodbath. Sam Darnold is playing like a man possessed, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is leading the league in receiving. Currently, the Seahawks are sitting at +140 to win the Super Bowl at some shops, which is incredibly short for this stage of the tournament.
But look at the Rams. They are 3.5-point favorites on the road against the 2-seed Chicago Bears today. Think about that. The oddsmakers are literally saying the 5-seed is better than the 2-seed, even on the road in January.
It makes sense, though. Matthew Stafford has the "been there, done that" aura. The Bears have a magical season going, but they struggled to put away a 9-7-1 Packers team last week, winning 31-27. If you’re betting the Rams -3.5, you’re betting on playoff experience over regular-season momentum.
Key Matchup Stats for Sunday’s Slate
- Texans at Patriots (-3): The total is a measly 40.5. The under has hit in five of the last six Patriots games.
- Rams (-3.5) at Bears: The Over/Under is 48.5. People expect points in Chicago, despite the cold.
- Super Bowl Favorites: Seattle (+140), New England (+250), Rams (+330), Broncos (+1000), Bears (+1800).
What the Public Gets Wrong About Playoff Spreads
Most people think "it’s the playoffs, anything can happen." While true, the betting odds for nfl playoffs are actually quite efficient. Home favorites are roughly 49-27 straight up over the last two decades in the Divisional Round. However, the ROI on road underdogs' moneyline is surprisingly high—around 20% in specific spots.
The "Sharp" play right now is looking at the Texans. Everyone saw the Patriots' defense dominate last week, so the public is laying the points with New England. Meanwhile, the professional bettors are looking at C.J. Stroud’s ability to handle pressure and Houston’s third-down efficiency (7-of-9 last week).
Then there's the "anytime touchdown" market. With George Kittle out for the (now eliminated) Niners and defensive units playing lights-out across the league, the value has shifted to secondary options. For today’s games, keep an eye on Jake Tonges or even the Rams' secondary receivers. When the star players get bracketed in January, the "nobodies" become legends.
Actionable Steps for Betting the Remainder of the Playoffs
If you are looking to get some skin in the game for the AFC and NFC Championship rounds or the Super Bowl in Santa Clara on February 8, don't just chase the favorites.
First, shop your lines. The difference between Rams -3.5 and Rams -3 is the difference between a win and a "push" if they win by a field goal. Use multiple sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM to find that extra half-point.
Second, monitor the injury reports like a hawk. The Broncos' slide from +700 to +1000 happened in minutes. If a key offensive lineman for the Seahawks or Rams shows up as "DNP" on Wednesday, the line will move.
Third, consider the "Exact Result" props. If you think we’re headed for a Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl, you can often find better value betting that specific matchup than betting both teams individually to win their conferences. Currently, a Patriots-Seahawks matchup is sitting around +145, while a Broncos-Bears longshot is all the way out at +2700.
Bottom line: The Seahawks look unstoppable, the Broncos are wounded, and the Rams are the dangerous "pro's pro" team lurking in the weeds. Trust the numbers, but don't ignore the narrative—especially when a backup QB is involved.
To make the most of the remaining games, start by tracking the "closing line value." If you bet a team at -3 and the line closes at -4.5, you’ve made a statistically "good" bet, regardless of the final score. Focus on getting the best price before the weekend hype drives the numbers up.