If you’re staring at the number one overall pick in your 2026 drafts, you probably aren't overthinking it. You're clicking on Bijan Robinson.
Honestly, it feels weird to say that about a guy on a Falcons team that just went 8-9 and fired their offensive coordinator, but the numbers don't lie. Bijan just wrapped up a 2025 campaign where he was basically the only reason some managers made the playoffs. He finished as the RB2 overall, trailing only a resurgent Christian McCaffrey, but the vibes in Atlanta are shifting in a way that makes Robinson the safest, high-ceiling bet we’ve seen in years.
He's 23. He's coming off 2,298 yards from scrimmage. He's the focal point of an offense that might finally be getting a modern makeover.
Let's get into why the bijan robinson fantasy draft hype is reaching a fever pitch and how you should actually handle him when you're on the clock.
The Statistical Monster: Breaking Down the 2025 Campaign
Looking back at last season, Bijan was a model of consistency. He played all 17 games for the second year in a row. That’s a massive win in an era where top-tier running backs seem to disappear the moment you draft them. He handled 287 carries for 1,478 yards and caught 79 passes for another 820 yards.
He didn't just run; he was a legitimate WR1 for long stretches.
Remember that Week 17 performance against the Rams? 195 rushing yards, a 93-yard touchdown (the longest in Falcons history), and five catches. That single game probably won more leagues than any other individual performance last year.
But there’s a catch.
Despite the yardage, he only found the end zone 11 times (7 rushing, 4 receiving). Why? Because Tyler Allgeier was still there, hanging around like a ghost, siphoning off high-value touches. Allgeier had 8 rushing touchdowns to Bijan’s 7, despite having far less explosive talent.
Why the 2026 Bijan Robinson Fantasy Draft Value is Different
Here is the thing most people are missing: the Tyler Allgeier era in Atlanta is likely over.
Reports indicate the Falcons are expected to let Allgeier seek a starting role elsewhere, or at least significantly reduce his goal-line usage under a new offensive regime. If you take those 8 touchdowns and give just half of them to Bijan, you aren’t looking at the RB2. You’re looking at a legendary fantasy season.
The Coaching Carousel
Atlanta is currently the "it" destination for offensive coordinators. Klint Kubiak has been heavily linked to the job. If the Falcons land an innovator like Kubiak, the "lethal" potential people are talking about becomes a reality.
We saw what happened when Raheem Morris tried to balance the load. It was fine, but it wasn't elite. A new system that prioritizes Bijan in space—similar to how the 49ers use CMC—could push his target share into the triple digits.
He averaged nearly 5 targets a game last year. In a Kubiak or West Coast-style system, that number could easily jump to 7 or 8.
The Risk Factor: Is There Any?
No player is "bust-proof."
The Falcons still have a quarterback question. Michael Penix Jr. spent much of last year on ice or dealing with injuries, and Kirk Cousins is another year older. If the passing game becomes completely stagnant, defenses will just stack 8 in the box and dare Atlanta to throw.
However, Bijan has proven he can produce even in "meh" situations. In Week 8 against New Orleans, he was held to 33 rushing yards but still saved his fantasy day with involvement in the passing game. He’s essentially a "zero-RB" strategist's worst nightmare because he does everything.
Durability and Age
Running backs hit a wall, but Bijan hasn't even seen the wall on a map yet. He turns 24 this month.
He has almost no injury history since entering the league. A minor hamstring tweak in 2024 is the only thing that even made the report. Compare that to Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, or CMC, who all have "injury prone" labels stitched into their jerseys.
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Draft Strategy: Where Do You Take Him?
If you have the 1.01, you take him. Don't be the person who tries to be "smart" by taking Puka Nacua or Ja'Marr Chase just to be different.
The scarcity of elite, three-down running backs in 2026 is terrifying. Beyond Bijan and Jahmyr Gibbs, the "sure things" at the position are aging or in committees.
If you're in a PPR league, his value is even higher. 79 catches is his floor.
What most people get wrong is thinking they need to "handicap" the Falcons' offense. "Oh, the Falcons aren't good enough to support the RB1." Wrong. The worse the team is, the more they dump the ball off to their best playmaker.
Final Verdict for Your Draft Day
The bijan robinson fantasy draft narrative is simple: he has the highest floor in the league and a ceiling that hasn't been reached yet.
He finished as a Top-12 RB in nearly 60% of his games last year. That kind of reliability is what wins championships. You aren't just drafting a running back; you're drafting a guy who will lead his team in touches, targets, and probably highlight-reel plays.
Actionable Next Steps
- Monitor the Falcons' OC hire: If it's a Kyle Shanahan disciple (like Kubiak), lock Bijan in as the 1.01 immediately.
- Track Tyler Allgeier’s status: If he is traded or signs elsewhere, Bijan’s touchdown upside increases by at least 30%.
- Don't reach for a handcuff early: If Allgeier leaves, the Falcons will likely bring in a cheap veteran. Don't waste a mid-round pick on a backup; just enjoy the Bijan workhorse era.
The window to get Bijan at any kind of "discount" closed the moment he ripped off that 93-yarder against the Rams. This year, you pay the premium, and you don't look back.