You've probably noticed that the bp share price lse has been doing some pretty weird stuff lately. One day it's up because of a spike in Brent crude, and the next, it’s sliding because of some multi-billion dollar write-down nobody saw coming.
Honestly, it's a lot to keep track of.
If you're looking at your portfolio and wondering why the heck BP is trading at around 440p while the rest of the market seems to be moving in a totally different direction, you aren't alone. As of mid-January 2026, the stock is basically a tug-of-war between old-school oil profits and the messy reality of the "green" transition.
What most people get wrong about BP
Most investors think BP is just an oil company. Or, if they’ve been reading the brochures, they think it’s a "renewable energy leader."
The truth? It's kinda neither right now.
BP is currently in the middle of a massive leadership pivot. We just saw Murray Auchincloss get replaced by Meg O’Neill, who’s coming over from Woodside Energy in April. This isn't just a change of names on the office door; it's a fundamental shift in how the company spends your money.
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The $5 Billion Reality Check
Just a few days ago, BP dropped a bombshell in their trading statement. They’re taking an impairment charge of up to $5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Most of that hit is coming from their "transition" businesses—think offshore wind and low-carbon energy. Basically, they spent big on green projects that aren't paying off as fast as they hoped.
- Net Debt: Even with that massive charge, they’ve managed to drag net debt down to between $22 billion and $23 billion.
- Asset Sales: They’ve been selling off "non-core" stuff like crazy, bringing in over $5.3 billion in 2025 alone.
- The Strategy: Under the new chair, Albert Manifold, the message is clear: more oil, more gas, and way more discipline.
Is the bp share price lse actually a bargain?
Analysts at places like AJ Bell and RBC are split. On one hand, the 5.6% dividend yield is juicy. If you've got £10,000 sitting around, that's a decent chunk of passive income.
But there's a catch.
The average price of Brent crude was around $63.73 in Q4 2025. That’s lower than the $69 they were seeing just a few months prior. When oil prices dip, BP’s "buyback" machine starts to creak. They’ve been spending roughly **$750 million** a quarter buying back their own shares to prop up the price, but some analysts—like Biraj Borkhataria at RBC—reckon they might have to pause that soon if the macro environment stays weak.
Comparing BP to the "Supermajors"
You can't look at BP in a vacuum. You have to see what the neighbors are doing.
- Shell: Usually trades at a premium to BP because their balance sheet is a bit cleaner.
- TotalEnergies: Just cut their share buybacks because of rising debt.
- Exxon/Chevron: These guys are doubling down on fossil fuels much harder than the Europeans.
BP is sort of the "value" play of the group. It's cheaper on a P/E basis (currently hovering around a trailing 62x due to those weird accounting charges, though underlying earnings are much more stable), but it carries more baggage.
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The Meg O’Neill Factor
Everyone is waiting for April. When Meg O’Neill takes the helm, she’s walking into a company that has already "cleared the decks" with these massive write-downs.
It’s a classic move: take the bad news now so the new CEO can start with a clean slate.
O'Neill is known for being an operations expert. Expect her to trim the fat in the renewables portfolio and focus on high-margin oil projects in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil. If she can convince the market that BP is a lean, mean, cash-generating machine again, that 440p price point might look like a steal in retrospect.
Actionable insights for your portfolio
So, what should you actually do with this information?
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If you're holding BP for the long haul, don't let the daily swings freak you out. The bp share price lse is notoriously volatile because it’s a proxy for global geopolitics.
- Watch the February 10th results: This is when we get the full picture of the 2025 numbers. Look specifically at the operating cash flow. If it's above $27 billion, the dividend is likely safe.
- Keep an eye on the buybacks: If the board announces a reduction in share repurchases, expect a short-term dip in the share price.
- Diversify within energy: Don't put all your "energy" eggs in the BP basket. Pair it with a more stable utility or a pure-play renewable stock to balance the volatility.
The bottom line is that BP is currently a "show me" stock. The market wants to see that they can grow production while keeping the green energy activists at bay. It’s a delicate dance, but for income seekers, that dividend remains one of the most attractive on the FTSE 100.
Next Steps for Investors: Review your exposure to the energy sector before the February 10 earnings call. Check if your brokerage allows for "Dividend Reinvestment Plans" (DRIPs) for BP, as compounding that 5.6% yield over several years is often more effective than trying to time the perfect entry point in a volatile market.