BP isn't exactly having a quiet week. If you've looked at the b p stock price today, you’ve probably noticed the ticker hovering around $35.39 on the NYSE and 440.25p in London. It’s a bit of a weird moment. On one hand, the company just dropped a bombshell about taking a massive $4 billion to $5 billion impairment charge mostly tied to their green energy transition. On the other, the stock price hasn’t completely cratered. Honestly, it even ticked up a bit on the news.
Why? Markets are funny like that. Sometimes a "bad" update is actually a relief because it provides clarity.
The Massive $5 Billion Elephant in the Room
The headline that everyone is buzzing about involves a huge writedown. Basically, BP admitted that some of its investments in gas and low-carbon energy aren't worth what they thought they were. This usually happens when market prices drop or when a specific project doesn't look as profitable as it did two years ago.
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In this case, the hit is coming from the "gas and low-carbon energy" segment. It's a reminder that the path to "Net Zero" is incredibly expensive and, frankly, risky.
But here is the twist. While they are losing billions on paper, their net debt is actually shrinking. It’s expected to land between $22 billion and $23 billion, which is a significant drop from the $26.1 billion they were carrying just a few months ago. Investors love a leaner balance sheet. They sort of see the $5 billion charge as "clearing the decks"—getting the bad news out of the way so the new boss can start with a clean slate.
New Leadership and the Castrol Sale
Speaking of the new boss, Meg O’Neill is set to take the wheel soon. She’s coming over from Woodside, and the street is already placing bets on whether she’ll lean back into oil or keep pushing the green agenda.
Wolfe Research recently named BP their top European pick for 2026. They even kept a price target of $51, which is way higher than where we are right now. A big reason for that optimism is the $10 billion Castrol deal. BP sold a majority stake in their famous lubricants business to Stonepeak. It was a move that caught a lot of people off guard, but it brought in roughly $6 billion in after-tax cash.
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Dividends and the "Buyback" Question
If you're holding these shares, you're probably in it for the income. The dividend yield is sitting around 5.5%, which is nothing to sneeze at.
- The next big earnings date is February 10, 2026.
- A fresh $750 million share buyback is currently running through early February.
- The company just confirmed its 2026 dividend calendar, signaling they aren't planning to cut the checks anytime soon.
Some analysts, like Biraj Borkhataria at RBC, think the company should maybe stop the buybacks and just focus on paying off even more debt. It’s a classic tug-of-war. Do you give the cash back to shareholders now, or do you fix the roof while the sun is shining? Right now, BP is trying to do both.
Is the b p stock price today a Bargain?
It depends on who you ask. Evercore ISI recently set a target of $38, while the consensus average among about 20 analysts is closer to $43.
You’ve got to weigh the "transition risk" against the "cash cow" reality. BP is still pumping a lot of oil. In fact, their upstream production for the end of 2025 was "broadly flat." That’s corporate-speak for "we aren't growing, but we aren't shrinking yet either."
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The real challenge is the refining side. They had a fire at their Whiting refinery which slowed things down, and refining margins globally are getting a bit squeezed. If oil prices stay low—Brent averaged about $63.73 in the last quarter—the profit margins on every barrel they pull out of the ground get tighter.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you are watching the ticker today, keep these three things in mind for your next move:
- Watch the February 10 Report: This is where we see the actual damage from the impairments and, more importantly, the guidance for the rest of 2026.
- Monitor Debt Levels: If net debt continues to drop toward that $20 billion mark, the stock could see a rerating as it becomes a "safer" bet.
- The O'Neill Factor: Any news on Meg O'Neill’s specific strategy for the "low carbon" transition will likely cause more volatility than any single earnings report.
Stay focused on the cash flow. At the end of the day, BP is a massive machine that generates billions in cash, even when it's writing off billions in assets.
Next Steps:
Check your portfolio's exposure to the energy sector to see if you're over-leveraged in "Big Oil" versus "Green Energy." You might also want to set a price alert for $33, which has acted as a support level in previous months, or $38 if you're looking for a breakout signal.