If you’ve been following the Atlantic Division lately, you know the vibe. It is absolute chaos. Honestly, the Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators matchup has become the ultimate "identity crisis" bowl of the NHL. Both teams are perpetually rebuilding, both have rosters overflowing with young, terrifyingly fast talent, and both seem to alternate between looking like Stanley Cup contenders and forgetting how to play defense within the same forty-minute span.
It’s personal. It’s loud. And it’s exactly what makes hockey in the 716 and the 613 so addictive right now.
The Current State of the Sabres and Senators
Heading into the meat of the 2025-26 season, the standings are a mess. As of mid-January 2026, the Buffalo Sabres are sitting on a 26-16-4 record. That’s 56 points, good enough for a competitive spot in the Atlantic. Lindy Ruff is back behind the bench, and he has clearly injected some of that old-school "run through a wall" mentality.
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Meanwhile, the Ottawa Senators have been treading water at 22-19-5. They’re right there. Close, but not quite over the hump. They recently picked up a massive win against the Rangers where Brady Tkachuk put up four points, proving that when the Sens are "on," they can dismantle anyone.
Why Buffalo is Winning the Mental Game
Basically, Buffalo has Ottawa's number lately. Last season, the Sabres swept the season series 4-0. Think about that. In a league with this much parity, taking every single game from a divisional rival is a statement.
On December 23, 2025, they did it again. A 3-2 overtime thriller. Bowen Byram—who has been an absolute revelation since coming over from Colorado—scored twice, including the winner just 31 seconds into OT. It extended a seven-game win streak for Buffalo, their longest since 2018.
The Sabres are playing with a kind of confidence we haven’t seen in a decade.
The Josh Norris Factor
You can't talk about Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators without mentioning the trade. Josh Norris is a Sabre now. Seeing him in blue and gold at the Canadian Tire Centre back in December was... weird.
Ottawa fans were predictably "vocal" about it.
Norris has been steady, if not spectacular, for Buffalo, putting up 16 points in 18 games before hitting a bit of a dry spell. But his presence changes the matchup. He knows the Senators' systems. He knows where the soft spots are in their zone. That kind of insider knowledge is a subtle edge that keeps tipping the scales toward Buffalo.
The Goaltending Rollercoaster
Let’s be real: goaltending has been the Achilles' heel for both these franchises for years.
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- Buffalo's Rotation: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has established himself as the guy. He’s 9-6-1 with a 2.63 GAA. When he’s locked in, Buffalo is hard to beat.
- Ottawa's Struggle: The Sens are still searching for that brick wall. Linus Ullmark was supposed to be the answer, and while he has flashes of brilliance, the team defense in front of him often leaves him out to dry.
- The Backup Chaos: We've seen James Reimer, Alex Lyon, and even Leevi Meriläinen rotating through the creases this season. It's a gamble every night.
Breakout Stars and Statistical Anomalies
Tage Thompson is still a unicorn. He’s 6'6" and moves like a winger half his size. This season, he’s already notched 22 goals. If the Senators can't find a way to tie him up in the neutral zone, he basically treats their blue line like a revolving door.
But don’t overlook the youth.
Zach Benson is only 20 and is already playing like a ten-year vet. He’s got 20 points in 31 games and a +7 rating. For Ottawa, Tim Stützle remains the engine. He recently had an eight-game point streak where he looked like an MVP candidate. When Stützle and Thompson are on the ice at the same time, the speed is genuinely hard to track with the naked eye.
Special Teams Are Making the Difference
Here is a wild stat for you.
Buffalo's penalty kill has been elite—ranked near the top of the league at over 90%. Ottawa’s? Not so much. They've struggled at the bottom of the league, hovering around 62%. In a rivalry game where tempers flare and the refs get whistle-happy, that disparity is a death sentence.
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If Ottawa continues to take "undisciplined" penalties (looking at you, Ridly Greig), the Sabres' power play will eventually make them pay, even if Buffalo's man-advantage hasn't been world-breaking this year.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
People love to say this is just a battle of two "mediocre" teams.
That is a lazy take.
The Buffalo Sabres vs Ottawa Senators rivalry is actually a preview of the next five years of the Eastern Conference. You are looking at two of the fastest rosters in hockey. These aren't old, slow teams grinding out 1-0 wins. These are track meets.
The problem hasn't been talent; it's been maturity.
Buffalo finally looks like they've grown up. With Rasmus Dahlin wearing the 'C', there's a level of accountability in that locker room that was missing during the Eichel era. Ottawa is still looking for that same level of consistency. They can beat the best team in the league on a Tuesday and lose to a basement-dweller on a Thursday.
Looking Ahead: The Olympic Break and Beyond
We have 11 games left before the Olympic break. For Ottawa, these are "must-win" territory. They have a massive gap to close if they want to leapfrog Buffalo in the Atlantic standings.
If you're looking for actionable insights on how to watch or track this rivalry:
- Watch the Neutral Zone: Buffalo wins when they force Ottawa to dump the puck. The Senators are a transition team; if they can't carry it in, they vanish.
- Bet the Over: Usually, these games are high-scoring. Between Thompson, Tuch, Tkachuk, and Batherson, there is too much offensive firepower for a goalie to stay perfect.
- Monitor the Injuries: Keep an eye on Bowen Byram. He’s been the X-factor for the Sabres' defense. If he’s out, Buffalo’s transition game slows down significantly.
The next time these two meet on April 2, 2026, it could very well decide who gets a wildcard spot and who starts booking tee times for May.
Keep your eyes on the goaltending matchups in the morning skate. If Luukkonen is starting, the edge stays with Buffalo. If Ottawa is forced to go with a rookie like Meriläinen, expect the Sabres to test him early and often. Check the latest line combinations on social media about two hours before puck drop to see if any late-scratch "flu bugs" are hitting the locker rooms, as that has been a recurring theme this winter.