If you’ve lived in Calgary for more than a week, you know the drill. You leave the house in a parka and by noon you’re carrying it while sweating in a t-shirt. Honestly, trying to pin down a reliable calgary weather forecast is kinda like trying to catch a greased pig—frustrating, messy, but weirdly entertaining if you aren't the one doing the running.
Right now, we are sitting in a bizarre atmospheric sandwich. Just two days ago, on Wednesday, January 14, the city absolutely smashed heat records. We hit a high of $16.9^{\circ}\text{C}$ (about $62^{\circ}\text{F}$ for my friends south of the border). To put that in perspective, the average high for mid-January is usually a depressing $-3^{\circ}\text{C}$. People were literally sitting on patios at the Ship & Anchor on 17th Ave, sipping pints in the sun like it was May.
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But then, the "Calgary Factor" kicked in.
Why the Calgary Weather Forecast Changes in Minutes
The culprit is always the Chinook. It’s that arch of clouds in the west that signals a massive wall of warm Pacific air is about to vault over the Rockies and drop into the Bow Valley. When it hits, the temperature doesn't just "rise." It explodes. We've seen shifts of $30^{\circ}\text{C}$ in a single afternoon. It’s why our outdoor rinks currently look like swimming pools.
However, the party is cooling off.
As of Friday, January 16, the current reality is a bit more grounded. We’re looking at a mostly sunny day with a high of $36^{\circ}\text{F}$ ($2^{\circ}\text{C}$) and a low of $23^{\circ}\text{F}$ ($-5^{\circ}\text{C}$). It’s crisp. It’s clear. But it’s not the t-shirt weather we had 48 hours ago. The wind is currently coming from the northwest at about 7 mph, which isn't too bad, but it definitely bites if you’re standing in the shade.
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The Weekend Breakdown
If you’re planning your Saturday, you’re in luck. The calgary weather forecast is calling for another mini-surge of warmth. We’re expecting a high of $51^{\circ}\text{F}$ ($11^{\circ}\text{C}$) on Saturday. It’s going to be sunny during the day, though the clouds will start rolling in by evening.
Sunday takes a dip.
Clouds move in.
High of $33^{\circ}\text{F}$ ($1^{\circ}\text{C}$).
Basically, it's the "Sunday Scaries" in weather form.
What to Actually Wear (The Expert Strategy)
Don't trust a single layer. Ever.
I’ve seen newcomers make the mistake of wearing a heavy down jacket because the morning was $-15^{\circ}\text{C}$, only to be miserable when the Chinook hits and they're stuck on the CTrain in a portable sauna. You need a shell. You need a mid-layer. You need a base layer. It's the Calgary uniform.
Also, keep an eye on the wind. While Saturday looks warm at $51^{\circ}\text{F}$, the wind direction is northwest at 12 mph. In this city, the wind is the Great Equalizer. It can make a "warm" day feel like a freezer if you’re caught in a canyon between downtown office towers.
The Long Range: Is Winter Over?
Short answer: No.
Environment Canada’s Justin Shelley recently pointed out that while we’re enjoying this upper ridge of high pressure, a pattern shift is looming. By next weekend (January 23-25), the mercury is expected to tank. We’re talking highs of $8^{\circ}\text{F}$ ($-13^{\circ}\text{C}$) and lows scraping the bottom of the barrel at $1^{\circ}\text{F}$ ($-17^{\circ}\text{C}$).
That’s a $40^{\circ}\text{F}$ drop from our Saturday peak.
This is exactly why the calgary weather forecast is such a hot topic at every coffee shop in the city. We live in a state of constant transition. One day you're golfing at a driving range—yes, people were literally out at Golf Fanatics on Wednesday—and the next week you're digging your car out of a drift.
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Real Talk on Ice Safety
The recent record-breaking warmth has made the Bow River incredibly dangerous. Fire crews already had to rescue a dog (and a person trying to save it) near Bowmont Park this week. The "ice" is mostly slush right now. If you're heading out for a walk, stay off the riverbanks. The freeze-thaw cycle creates "shelf ice" that looks solid but is actually hollow and brittle.
Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the wind chill, not just the high: A $2^{\circ}\text{C}$ day with a 40 km/h wind is colder than a $-10^{\circ}\text{C}$ day with no wind.
- Hydrate your skin: The Chinook air is notoriously dry. If you don't use moisturizer, you'll feel like a piece of old parchment by Tuesday.
- Service your furnace now: Don't wait for the $-20^{\circ}\text{C}$ dip next week to find out your pilot light is finicky.
- Swap your tires: If you’re still on all-seasons, Saturday’s $11^{\circ}\text{C}$ window is your last "comfortable" chance to get those winter tires on before the snow showers arrive next Friday.
The calgary weather forecast for the rest of January is a rollercoaster. Enjoy the Saturday sun, but keep your shovel by the door. You’re gonna need it sooner than you think.