If you’re walking around Dealey Plaza or grabbing a drink in Deep Ellum today, the sports talk is... heavy. It’s January 2026, and the "Big Three" of Dallas sports are in wildly different universes. Usually, by now, we have a clear idea of who’s buying and who’s selling. But this year? It’s a mess.
People keep asking: can Dallas make the playoffs? Well, it depends on which stadium you’re looking at. If you mean the Cowboys, the answer is a cold, hard "no"—the season just ended in a heap of disappointment. If you mean the Mavericks, it’s a "maybe, but it's gonna take a miracle." And if you mean the Stars? They aren't just making the playoffs; they’re trying to win the whole thing.
Let's get into the weeds of why this winter feels so strange for North Texas sports.
The Cowboys: A 30-Year Drought That Just Got Longer
Honestly, it’s getting hard to watch. The Dallas Cowboys just wrapped up their 2025-2026 campaign with a 7-9-1 record. For those keeping track at home, that is officially the second year in a row they’ve missed the postseason. It’s also the first time they’ve had consecutive losing seasons since the early 2000s.
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Jerry Jones isn't happy. Actually, that's an understatement. After the Week 18 loss to the Giants, Jerry basically hinted at a total roster purge. Word on the street is they might cut or let go of 17 different players to reset the cap.
The weirdest part? Dak Prescott actually had a great year statistically. He threw for over 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. But the defense was a sieve, and the run game was basically non-existent. So, if you were hoping for a late-January playoff run at AT&T Stadium, you're out of luck. The 2026 offseason is officially here for the Puka Nacua-led Rams and the top-seeded Seahawks, but Dallas is watching from the couch.
Can Dallas Make the Playoffs? The Mavericks' Steep Uphill Climb
Over at the American Airlines Center, things are... tense. As of mid-January 2026, the Dallas Mavericks are sitting at 15-25. That puts them 12th in the Western Conference.
The math is not pretty. They are currently trailing the final play-in spot by a few games, and the vibes are definitely "off." Jason Kidd is dealing with some brutal injury news. Anthony Davis—who many hoped would be the missing piece—is expected to miss more time, and PJ Washington has been banged up too.
Basically, the Mavs have an implied probability of about 6.7% to make the postseason right now. That is a tiny window.
- The Cooper Flagg Factor: The bright spot? Cooper Flagg. He has been a beast, carrying the load and showing why he’s the future.
- The Standings: They’re staring up at the Phoenix Suns and the Memphis Grizzlies.
- The Schedule: They need to go on a massive tear in February just to sniff the 10th seed.
So, can Dallas make the playoffs in the NBA? Mathematically, yes. Realistically? They’d need to win about 65% of their remaining games. Considering they’ve won 37% so far, that’s a tall order. They're basically three games behind the Suns for that last play-in spot, so every game against teams like the Brooklyn Nets or Utah Jazz is now a "must-win."
The Dallas Stars: The Lone Bright Spot
Thank God for hockey. While the Cowboys are soul-searching and the Mavs are struggling to stay healthy, the Dallas Stars are absolutely humming.
They are currently 27-10-9 with 63 points. That puts them second in the Central Division, right behind a terrifying Colorado Avalanche team. Jason Robertson is playing out of his mind (55 points already), and Jake Oettinger is holding things down in net with a solid .902 save percentage.
If you want to see playoff sports in Dallas this year, the Stars are your only safe bet. They aren't just looking to "make" the playoffs; they are locks. The conversation there has already shifted to whether they can jump Colorado for home-ice advantage or if they need to add a veteran defenseman at the deadline to handle the heavy hitters in the West.
What Most People Get Wrong About the "Dallas Slump"
There’s this narrative that Dallas sports are "cursed" right now. I don't buy it. It’s more about timing and health.
The Cowboys are stuck in a salary cap hell that they finally have to pay off. The Mavericks are in a transitional phase where they're leaning on a rookie (Flagg) and dealing with the reality that an aging roster around Luka Doncic (who we all know carries the world on his shoulders) needs more depth.
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It’s not a curse; it’s just the cycle of professional sports. Except for the Stars—they’ve managed to rebuild on the fly while staying elite, which is basically a miracle in the modern NHL.
Real Talk: What Should Fans Do?
If you're a die-hard Dallas fan, the next few months are going to be a test of your patience.
- Stop checking the NFL standings. It’s over. Focus on the mock drafts. Dallas is likely picking in the top 12, and they desperately need linebacker help.
- Watch the Mavs for the development. Don't stress the L's too much. Watch how Flagg matures. If they make the play-in, it’s a bonus. If they don’t, they get another high lottery pick to pair with their young core.
- Buy Stars tickets now. Seriously. By the time April rolls around, those tickets are going to be the hottest commodity in North Texas.
The question of can Dallas make the playoffs has three different answers this year. The Cowboys failed, the Mavericks are fighting for their lives, and the Stars are already planning the parade route. It's a weird time to be a sports fan in the Big D, but at least we've got playoff hockey to keep us warm.
Keep an eye on the Mavs' upcoming road trip. If they can sweep the Bulls and the Nets, that 6% chance might actually start to look like a real path. If not, it's officially "Stars Season" in Dallas.
Actionable Insight for Fans: Check the Mavericks' injury report specifically for Anthony Davis's return date. If he isn't back by the All-Star break, the playoff push is likely dead. Conversely, keep an eye on the NHL trade deadline (early March)—the Stars are expected to be aggressive buyers for a top-four defenseman.