Texas is huge. I mean, we all know that, but in politics, its size usually acts as a massive red wall that Democrats have been trying to scale with a toothpick for thirty years. For a second there—maybe around 2018 or 2020—it felt like the toothpick was working. People started whispering the word "purple." But after the 2024 results rolled in, that whisper got a bit quieter.
If you’re asking can Harris win Texas, the honest answer is a mix of "not anytime soon" and "it’s complicated." In 2024, Donald Trump didn't just win Texas; he blew the doors off. He took the state by about 14 points. To put that in perspective, he won by about 6 points in 2020. Usually, states that are "trending blue" don't suddenly swing 8 points back to the right.
So, what happened? And does Kamala Harris—or any Democrat—actually have a path to 40 electoral votes in the future?
The Red Shift in South Texas
For decades, the Rio Grande Valley was the fortress of the Democratic Party. It’s overwhelmingly Latino, historically working-class, and deeply blue. Or it was. In 2024, Trump basically staged a political coup in the region. He flipped counties like Starr County, which hadn't gone Republican for a century. Literally. Since 1892.
It wasn't a fluke. It was a trend.
The shift among Latino voters in Texas is probably the biggest hurdle for Harris. While she held onto a lead with women generally, the margin with Latino men evaporated. In places like Hidalgo and Cameron counties, the Republican message on the economy and border security resonated way more than the Democratic platform. Basically, the "demographics are destiny" argument—the idea that more non-white voters automatically means more blue votes—crashed and burned.
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Why the Suburbs Stopped Sliding Blue
Democrats used to bank on the "Texas Triangle"—the area between Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Austin. The plan was simple: get enough transplants from California and New York to move to the suburbs, and eventually, you'll outvote the rural areas.
It worked for a while.
In 2020, Biden made massive gains in Collin County (north of Dallas) and Fort Bend (outside Houston). But in 2024, the slide stopped. Trump actually expanded his lead in Collin County back to double digits. It turns out that those suburban voters, while maybe not loving everything Trump says, were more worried about their grocery bills and mortgage rates than anything else.
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Can Harris Win Texas in the Future?
If we're looking at 2028 or beyond, the math is brutal but not impossible. For Kamala Harris to win Texas, she’d need a "perfect storm" that currently looks like a light drizzle.
First, she has to win back the working class. That means talking about oil and gas in a way that doesn't make Permian Basin workers think she wants to shut down their livelihoods. Texas is the energy capital of the world. You can’t win here if people think you’re coming for their rigs.
Second, the turnout problem is real. Texas has some of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country. In the 2024 primaries, Republican turnout absolutely dwarfed Democratic participation. About 2.3 million Republicans showed up compared to less than a million Democrats. If your base isn't even showing up for the "easy" stuff, the General Election is a mountain too high to climb.
The 2026 Factor
Keep an eye on the 2026 midterms. We’re going to see a Senate race where John Cornyn is up for reelection. Early polling from the University of Houston’s Hobby School shows Republicans still holding the edge, but the margins in a hypothetical matchup with someone like Jasmine Crockett or a return of Colin Allred are much tighter than the 14-point blowout we saw in the presidential race.
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Wait, why does that matter?
Because it shows that "Texas Republicans" and "MAGA Republicans" aren't always viewed exactly the same by the electorate. If a Democrat can figure out how to peel away those moderate suburbanites who are tired of the chaos but still want conservative fiscal policy, the door cracks open a tiny bit.
What Needs to Change for a Democratic Win
Honestly, the national Democratic brand is currently "toxic" in large swaths of rural and semi-rural Texas. To change that, the strategy has to shift from "waiting for the state to change" to "changing the message."
- Economic Realism: Moving away from high-level "Bidenomics" talk and focusing on the specific cost of living in Texas cities.
- Energy Pragmatism: Acknowledging that Texas will be an oil state for a long time, even while transitioning to renewables.
- Border Engagement: Not ceding the border security conversation to the GOP. Voters in the Rio Grande Valley care about a secure border just as much as someone in the Panhandle.
Actionable Insights for the Electorate
If you're watching the Texas political landscape, don't just look at the top-of-the-ticket numbers. Watch the "down-ballot" races in the state legislature. That’s where the real shifts happen first.
If you want to understand the future of the state, track the migration patterns into the "ring counties" around Austin and San Antonio. If those counties start to stabilize or move back toward the center, the "blue Texas" dream is likely dead for another generation. But if 2024 was just a high-water mark for the Trump movement specifically, and not a permanent realignment of the Latino vote, then 2028 might look very different.
The next step for anyone following this is to monitor the 2026 gubernatorial and senatorial primary filings. Who the parties nominate will tell you exactly which direction they think the wind is blowing.