If you’ve been watching the Cassava Sciences stock price lately, you know it feels a bit like looking at a map of a ghost town. It’s quiet. Maybe a little too quiet for a company that was once the loudest, most controversial name in the biotech world.
For years, Cassava Sciences (SAVA) was the ultimate "battleground stock." You had retail investors on one side, convinced they were holding the cure for Alzheimer’s disease. On the other side, you had short-sellers and skeptics screaming about data manipulation and "image forensics." It was a mess.
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Fast forward to January 2026. The dust has mostly settled, but the landscape looks nothing like the $135-per-share peak of 2021. Today, the Cassava Sciences stock price is hovering around $2.12. It’s a far cry from the moon-bound trajectory many predicted. Honestly, it’s a sobering reminder of how fast the "next big thing" in biotech can hit a brick wall.
The Simufilam Failure and the Pivot to TSC
The big blow came in 2025. After years of hype, the Phase 3 trials—RETHINK-ALZ and REFOCUS-ALZ—basically fell flat. Simufilam, the drug everyone was betting on, didn’t meet its primary endpoints. It didn't significantly slow down cognitive decline compared to a placebo.
That was the "make or break" moment. When the results were "unambiguous" (to use the company's own word), the Alzheimer’s program was essentially shelved.
- RETHINK-ALZ (N=804): Failed to show cognitive or functional benefit.
- REFOCUS-ALZ (N=1,125): Also failed. Discontinued early after the RETHINK results came out.
- Safety: The only silver lining was that the drug was safe. No brain bleeds. No major side effects.
But safety doesn't pay the bills if the drug doesn't work. The company has now officially pivoted. They are betting what's left of their $100 million cash pile on Tuberous Sclerosis Complex (TSC)-related epilepsy. It’s a smaller market, a "niche" play, but it keeps the lights on.
Why the Cassava Sciences Stock Price Stayed Under Pressure
Investors didn't just have to deal with trial failures. There was the legal baggage. You can't talk about SAVA without mentioning the SEC.
Back in late 2024, Cassava agreed to pay $40 million to settle charges with the SEC. They were accused of making misleading statements about those early 2020 Phase 2 results. Former CEO Remi Barbier and Dr. Lindsay Burns also had to pay up and were banned from serving as officers for several years.
Then came the class-action lawsuits. In December 2025, the company agreed to a $31.25 million settlement to resolve legacy litigation. That’s a lot of money out the door for a company that has zero revenue.
The Management Shuffle
Rick Barry is the one steering the ship now. He’s been trying to clean up the corporate image, bringing in people like Dr. Joseph Hulihan as Chief Medical Officer and Jack Moore for clinical development. They’re trying to act like a "normal" biotech company now, away from the Twitter wars and the "SAVA Ape" culture of 2021.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Data
Even now, some die-hard fans point to "post-hoc" analyses. On January 13, 2026, Cassava published a paper in the Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer's Disease (JPAD). It showed some "nominally significant" signals in a subgroup of patients with mild Alzheimer’s.
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Basically, they’re saying: "It didn't work for everyone, but if you look at this specific group, it might have done something."
The market isn't buying it. In biotech, if you miss your primary endpoint, "exploratory signals" are usually just noise. Plus, the study found that 21% of people in the trial didn't even have Alzheimer's pathology—they were "amyloid negative." This suggests the screening process was flawed from the start. If you test an Alzheimer's drug on people who don't have Alzheimer's, you're going to get bad data.
Is There Any Upside Left?
So, where does the Cassava Sciences stock price go from here?
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The company expects to start a Phase 2 proof-of-concept study for TSC-related epilepsy in the first half of 2026. This is the new "catalyst." If that trial shows promise, the stock might see a small "relief rally."
But the days of SAVA being a multi-billion dollar company are likely over. At a market cap of around $80 million to $100 million, they are valued as a micro-cap research firm. They have enough cash to last through late 2026, but after that, they’ll probably need to raise more money. And raising money with a $2 stock price means massive dilution for anyone still holding the bag.
Actionable Insights for Investors
- Watch the TSC Timeline: If the proof-of-concept study for epilepsy doesn't start by June 2026, expect more selling pressure.
- Cash is King: Keep an eye on the quarterly "burn rate." They have roughly $106 million as of late 2025, but that's disappearing fast.
- Ignore the Noise: Don't get caught up in "conspiracy theories" about short sellers or "secret data." Look at the clinical trial results. They are public, peer-reviewed, and negative for Alzheimer's.
- Risk Management: This is now a "lotto ticket" stock. Only put in what you're willing to lose 100% of.
The story of Cassava Sciences is a cautionary tale. It shows what happens when a company's valuation gets disconnected from scientific reality. It’s a tough pill to swallow for many, but the numbers don't lie.
Next Steps for You:
If you're still holding SAVA, check their most recent SEC 10-K filing to see the exact cash-on-hand figures for 2026. You should also set a price alert for the $1.15 level, which was the 52-week low. If it breaks that, there isn't much support left.