Honestly, if you look at the standings right now, it feels like we’re all just waiting for the inevitable. The Oklahoma City Thunder are basically a buzzsaw. Sitting at 35-7 as of mid-January 2026, they aren’t just winning; they are historically dominant. But if you’ve followed this league for more than a week, you know the regular season is often a lie. A beautiful, high-scoring lie.
The chances of winning NBA Finals trophies usually come down to health and who has the best "player in the world" candidate. Right now, the betting markets are obsessed with OKC. They’re sitting at roughly +110 to +115 at most sportsbooks like FanDuel and BetMGM. That is a massive amount of respect for a team trying to go back-to-back. The last time we saw a repeat champion was the Warriors back in 2018. It's hard. Really hard.
The Thunder Problem and the West’s Chaos
OKC is the reigning champ. They kept their core. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like an MVP, and Chet Holmgren has transformed into a defensive nightmare for the rest of the league. According to the latest power rankings from NBC Sports and BetMGM, they are the clear number one. But here is the thing: the Western Conference is a literal bloodbath.
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You’ve got the Denver Nuggets sitting right there at +700. Nikola Jokić is still Nikola Jokić. He’s averaging a triple-double (or close enough to it that it doesn't matter), and Denver added some depth with Bruce Brown returning and grabbing Jonas Valančiūnas to bang bodies in the paint. If you’re looking at the chances of winning NBA Finals through the lens of experience, Denver is the only team that doesn't look terrified of OKC’s pace.
- Oklahoma City Thunder (+110): The favorites for a reason. Their net rating is on pace to be the highest in history.
- Denver Nuggets (+700): The "don't forget about us" team. Jokić is the ultimate equalizer in a seven-game series.
- San Antonio Spurs (+1200): This is the shocker of 2026. Victor Wembanyama has arrived. Like, really arrived. They’re 28-13 and arguably the second-best team in the West right now.
Then there’s the Houston Rockets. They went all-in and traded for Kevin Durant. It was a "win now" move that actually seems to be working. They’re sitting at +1300 to +1500 depending on where you look. Losing Fred VanVleet to an ACL tear hurts their floor, but with KD and Alperen Şengün, their ceiling is basically the roof.
Why the Eastern Conference is a Total Toss-Up
While the West is top-heavy with the Thunder, the East is a mess. A fun mess, but a mess nonetheless. The Detroit Pistons—yes, the Pistons—are leading the conference at 29-10. J.B. Bickerstaff has them playing elite defense, and Cade Cunningham is finally the superstar everyone hoped he’d be. But do you trust them in a Game 7 against a veteran team? Most bettors don't. That’s why their odds are still out at +1800.
The New York Knicks are the "smart" money pick in the East at +1300. Jalen Brunson is the king of New York, and Mike Brown taking over as head coach has given them a different offensive look. They won the NBA Cup in December, beating the Spurs in the final. That kind of "tournament" experience matters when the playoffs turn into a grind.
The Boston Celtics are the wild card. They are the 2024 champs, but they’ve been hovering around +1700 because of Jayson Tatum’s injury struggles this season. Even without him for stretches, they have the second-best offensive rating in the league. You can never count out a team that has Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porziņģis, assuming Porziņģis stays on the floor.
Breaking Down the Statistical Probability
If we talk about "true" chances of winning NBA Finals, we have to look at Net Rating and SRS (Simple Rating System). Historically, teams that win it all almost always rank in the top three in Net Rating.
- Oklahoma City: 12.59 SRS. This is "dynasty" territory.
- Houston Rockets: 5.89 SRS. Their record is 24-15, but they play better than that.
- Boston Celtics: 5.73 SRS. Still elite, even with the drama.
- Detroit Pistons: 5.33 SRS. The surprise of the year.
The gap between OKC and the rest of the league is wider than the Grand Canyon right now. But the playoffs are about matchups. A team like the Minnesota Timberwolves (+2700) has the size with Rudy Gobert and Naz Reid to potentially bother the Thunder's smaller, faster lineups. Anthony Edwards is also the type of guy who can decide he's the best player on the court for two weeks straight and ruin everyone's brackets.
The Wembanyama Factor
We have to talk about Victor. The Spurs weren't supposed to be this good yet. Most projections had them as a play-in team. Instead, they are the number two seed in the West. Wembanyama is the betting favorite for Defensive Player of the Year (-300), and he's starting to figure out how to close games. If the Spurs end up as the 2-seed, they avoid OKC until the Conference Finals. By then, anything can happen. A 7-foot-4 alien is a tough out in June.
What Most People Get Wrong About the Odds
People see +110 for the Thunder and think it's a lock. It isn't. In the last seven years, we've had seven different champions. The era of the "inevitable" champion like the mid-2010s Warriors is supposedly over. Parity is the new norm.
Injuries are the great equalizer. Look at the Cleveland Cavaliers. They were the 1-seed last year and opened at +700 this season. Then Darius Garland goes down, they stumble out of the gate, and suddenly they’re +2200. The talent hasn't left; they're just banged up. If they get healthy by April, that +2200 looks like a steal.
Honestly, the chances of winning NBA Finals are often decided in the final week of the regular season based on who gets the easiest path. Avoiding the Nuggets in the first round is a win in itself.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Postseason
If you’re tracking these teams, don't just look at the win-loss column. Look at how they play against the top four teams in each conference. The Pistons are 10-4 against teams over .500. That’s a "contender" stat. The Lakers, on the other hand, have a negative net rating despite being 24-15. They’re winning close games because of LeBron and Luka Doncic’s heroics, but that usually doesn't hold up over four playoff rounds.
Watch the trade deadline. The Knicks and Hawks are rumored to be active. If New York adds one more wing defender, their path through the East becomes much clearer. If the Nuggets find a way to get another reliable bench scorer, they might be the only ones who can actually stop the OKC repeat.
Check the health of the stars. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the engine for OKC. If he misses time, the Thunder are still good, but they aren't "minus-odds" favorites anymore. The odds are a snapshot in time. Right now, the snapshot says Oklahoma City, but the development of Wembanyama and the resurgence of the Pistons suggests the story isn't written yet.
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Monitor the Western Conference standings closely over the next month. The difference between the 1-seed and the 4-seed in the West is currently only 8 games, but the difference in the "path" to the Finals is massive. Avoiding a second-round matchup with Denver or Minnesota is the priority for everyone not named the Thunder. Focus on teams with a top-5 defensive rating, as that remains the most consistent predictor of playoff success.
Stay updated on the injury reports for Jayson Tatum and Joel Embiid. If both return to 100% by March, the Eastern Conference odds will shift dramatically, likely pushing Detroit and New York's prices back down. The value is currently in those "underperforming" elite teams like Cleveland and Boston before they hit their late-season stride.