Winning feels like a habit for the Kansas City Chiefs. Usually, when Patrick Mahomes gets a 14-point lead, you can pretty much head to the parking lot and beat the traffic. It’s over. Or at least it used to be. But something shifted recently when the Jacksonville Jaguars hosted them at EverBank Stadium.
We saw a streak of 23 consecutive wins when leading by 14+ points just… vanish. Poof.
Honestly, the Chiefs vs Jaguars matchup hasn’t always been a "must-watch" on the national calendar. For years, it was basically a scheduled win for KC. But if you’ve been paying attention to the 2025 season and the trajectory of these two franchises, you know the vibes have changed. Jacksonville isn't just a "spooky" team anymore; they’re a legitimate problem for the AFC hierarchy.
The Monday Night Meltdown at EverBank
Let's talk about that Week 5 game in October 2025 because it basically rewrote the script for both teams. The Chiefs rolled into Jacksonville and did exactly what they do. Mahomes found Travis Kelce for a 2-yard score, then ran one in himself. 14-0. The stadium was quiet. It looked like another long night for the Duval faithful.
Then things got weird.
Jacksonville’s defense, led by Devin Lloyd, started playing like they were possessed. Lloyd, who had already been named the AFC Defensive Player of the Month for September, pulled off one of those "did that really just happen?" plays—a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown. It wasn't just a momentum swing; it was a soul-crushing 14-point turnaround.
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And then there was Trevor Lawrence.
He didn't have a perfect game. Far from it. He fumbled at the goal line early on. He threw a pick. But he kept coming. On his 26th birthday, of all days, Lawrence orchestrated a final drive that ended with him literally tripping, falling, getting back up, and stumbling into the end zone with 23 seconds left.
Jaguars 31, Chiefs 28.
That win snapped an eight-game losing streak Jacksonville had against Kansas City. It was their first win over the Chiefs since 2009. Think about that. Most of the players on that field were in elementary school the last time the Jags beat KC.
Why the Jaguars Aren't Flukes Anymore
You’ve probably heard people say the Jaguars are "up and coming" for three years now. It’s a tired trope. But the 2025 season stats tell a different story. They didn't just stumble into a 4-1 start; they dominated the clock. Before that Chiefs game, they had trailed for an NFL-low 9 minutes and 10 seconds across four games.
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They’ve built a roster that matches up specifically well against KC’s speed:
- Devin Lloyd and the Linebackers: They have the lateral quickness to actually shadow Travis Kelce, or at least make him work for every inch.
- Travis Etienne's Versatility: Etienne has become a nightmare in the flat, averaging nearly six yards per carry and forcing the Chiefs' secondary to creep up.
- Brian Thomas Jr.: The emergence of Thomas as a deep threat has finally forced defenses to stop doubling everything underneath, giving Lawrence the windows he needs.
Kansas City’s defense is still elite—ranked 5th overall in points allowed—but they've shown a surprising vulnerability to the run. They're ranked 22nd against rushing attacks. When you have a guy like Etienne and a quarterback who isn't afraid to tuck it and run (as Lawrence showed with those two rushing TDs), that gap becomes a canyon.
Mahomes vs Lawrence: The Gap is Closing
We have to be honest here: Patrick Mahomes is still the gold standard. Even in that Week 5 loss, he threw for 318 yards and led an 86-yard drive late in the fourth to take the lead. He does things with a football that don't seem physically possible.
But the "invincibility" factor is fading slightly.
Lawrence is finally playing in a system—under Liam Coen’s offensive direction—that suits his "tall-as-a-tree" vision and big arm. In 2025, his numbers compared to the previous year were staggering: +1889 yards and +19 touchdowns. He’s no longer just a "prospect." He’s a guy who can look Mahomes in the eye in the fourth quarter and not blink.
The advanced stats from their recent meeting are actually pretty wild. The Chiefs outgained the Jags by 150 yards. They had 476 total yards. In almost any other game, that’s a blowout win for Kansas City. But Jacksonville won the turnover battle and capitalized on "non-traditional" scoring. That’s the mark of a team that knows how to beat the big dogs—they find ways to win when the box score says they shouldn't.
The Playoff History and What’s Next
The history of Chiefs vs Jaguars is still heavily tilted toward Missouri. All-time, KC leads the series 10-7. The most painful one for Jacksonville was the 2022 AFC Divisional round. You remember that one—the "Mahomes on one leg" game. Even with a high ankle sprain, Mahomes gutted out a 27-20 win.
That game established a pecking order. KC was the king, and Jacksonville was the pretender.
But as we look toward the 2026 season and beyond, that hierarchy is shaky. The Chiefs are dealing with some massive hurdles. Mahomes has been nursing a knee injury (a torn ACL reported in late 2025) that has many wondering if he'll be 100% for the start of the 2026-27 season.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville finished the 2025 regular season with a 13-4 record, taking the AFC South with ease. They aren't just looking to compete; they’re looking to take the crown.
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Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you're betting on or just watching the next time these two face off, forget the historical trends. The "Mahomes always beats the Jags" narrative is officially dead.
Keep an eye on the Turnover Margin. In their recent meetings, the winner has almost always been the team that forces at least two takeaways. For Jacksonville, that means getting pressure on Mahomes without blitzing—something they struggled with in the past but mastered in 2025.
Watch the Red Zone Efficiency. Kansas City has been uncharacteristically "settle-for-field-goals" lately, while Jacksonville has turned into a touchdown machine when they get inside the 20.
Lastly, pay attention to the Injury Report. With Mahomes' knee being a major storyline for 2026, the spread on this game is going to fluctuate wildly. If he’s even slightly hampered, the Jags' pass rush will smell blood in the water.
The rivalry has moved from a blowout to a chess match. Whether you’re a fan in Arrowhead or rocking the teal in Duval, the days of overlooking this matchup are over. It’s now one of the premier fixtures in the AFC.