It's 2026, and if you haven't checked the trade headlines in the last few months, you're probably working with information that’s basically prehistoric. Honestly, the trade war didn't just "continue"—it went through a meat grinder in 2025 and came out looking like a totally different beast. We’ve seen average tariffs swing from "painful" to "apocalyptic" and then back down to "manageable" in a matter of months.
Basically, if you’re an American exporter or just someone wondering why your favorite gear is getting pricier, you’ve got to understand the "Truce of 2025." Late last year, specifically around November 10, the U.S. and China hit the brakes on a collision course that had average Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods peaking at a staggering $147.6%$.
Yeah, you read that right. For a hot minute in April 2025, it was almost impossible to sell anything to China. But today? The landscape is a bit more nuanced.
What is China's tariffs on US goods looking like right now?
Right now, as we kick off 2026, the average Chinese tariff on U.S. exports sits at roughly 31.9%.
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That’s a far cry from the triple-digit chaos of last spring, but it's still nearly four times higher than the $8%$ average China charged before the trade war started back in 2018. The current "truce" is essentially a stay of execution. China agreed to suspend the massive retaliatory hikes they announced in March 2025—which had targeted everything from Nebraska corn to Maine lobster—in exchange for the U.S. softening its stance on fentanyl-related enforcement tariffs.
The Agriculture "Relief"
If you’re in the Midwest, this is the part that matters. Under the November 2025 deal, China agreed to terminate the extra $15%$ they’d slapped on:
- Chicken and Wheat
- Corn and Cotton
They also dropped a $10%$ surcharge on soybeans, pork, beef, and dairy. But don't mistake "dropping the extra" for "zero tariffs." These products are still subject to the "base" retaliatory duties from the 2018-2020 era. You're still paying to play; it’s just not a total lockout anymore.
The 2026 Exclusion Game: How to dodge the tax
One of the most important things for businesses to track this year is the market-based tariff exclusion process.
China has extended this through December 31, 2026. This is basically a "get out of jail" card for Chinese importers. If a Chinese company can prove they absolutely need a specific U.S. product—say, a specialized medical device or a certain type of semiconductor—and they can't get it elsewhere, they can apply for an exemption from the retaliatory duties.
It’s bureaucratic. It’s a headache. But it’s the only reason some U.S. tech is still moving across the Pacific.
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Why the numbers keep jumping
You might be wondering why the rates aren't just one flat number. It's because China uses what they call "tranches." They don't just tax "America"; they tax specific categories to hit back at whatever the U.S. just restricted.
For instance, when the U.S. targeted Chinese shipping and logistics last year, Beijing responded with "special port fees" and maritime investigations. Those are currently suspended as part of the 2025 deal, but the infrastructure to bring them back is still very much in place.
The Real Cost of "Reciprocity"
The 2025-2026 era has been defined by a "tit-for-tat" mentality. When the U.S. maintains a $10%$ "reciprocal tariff" under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), China keeps its retaliatory baseline at a similar level. It’s a mirror game. If one side flinches, the other moves.
What most people get wrong about the "Trade Deal"
Kinda funny, but a lot of folks think the "deal" signed in late 2025 fixed everything. It didn't.
What it did was prevent a total decoupling. China still has massive export controls on things we need, like:
- Gallium and Germanium: Essential for chips.
- Antimony: Used in everything from batteries to bullets.
- Graphite: If you want an EV battery, you need this.
The current agreement suspends some of these restrictions until late 2026, but the "sword of Damocles" is still hanging over the supply chain. If trade talks sour this summer, those taps can be turned off in 48 hours.
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Looking ahead: The 2026 enforcement surge
If 2025 was the year of policy chaos, 2026 is becoming the year of enforcement.
The DOJ and Chinese customs are both cracking down on "transshipment"—that’s the fancy word for when a company tries to sneak U.S. goods into China through a third country like Vietnam to avoid the "Made in USA" tax. They’re getting better at catching it.
Honestly, the risk of a "snap-back" is high. While Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet a few times this year to hammer out more "technical" issues, the underlying tension over AI and semiconductors isn't going away. China is doubling down on its own "technological self-sufficiency," which means even if tariffs stay flat, they’re actively trying to stop buying U.S. tech altogether.
Your 2026 Trade Survival Checklist
If you're dealing with Chinese tariffs on U.S. goods this year, you can't just set it and forget it. Here’s what you actually need to do:
- Verify your HTS Codes: China updated their list for 935 items on January 1st. Make sure your product hasn't shifted into a higher-tax bracket or a new "green energy" incentive category.
- Audit your "Exclusion" status: If you haven't reapplied for a tariff exclusion since the November deal, your previous exemption might have expired or changed terms.
- Watch the "Fentanyl Clock": The U.S. tariff reduction is tied to China’s cooperation on precursor chemicals. If the U.S. decides China isn't doing enough, the "reciprocal" 10% hike could return by November 10, 2026.
- Diversify Sourcing: Even with the truce, the average $31.9%$ tax is a massive margin-killer. Many firms are moving the "final assembly" of goods to neutral ground to change the Country of Origin before shipping to China.
The trade war isn't over; it’s just entered a quieter, more technical phase. Stay sharp.