You've probably seen the Churchill Downs stock quote (ticker: CHDN) bouncing around lately. Most people look at the ticker and think of big hats, mint juleps, and two minutes of horse racing in May. But honestly? If you're judging this company solely by a single Saturday in Kentucky, you're looking at the wrong map.
As of January 16, 2026, the stock is trading around $107.49. It’s down slightly from its previous close of $108.08, reflecting the kind of daily volatility that makes day traders sweat but usually doesn't faze the long-term folks. The 52-week range is a wide chasm, stretching from $85.58 to $128.01.
Basically, this isn't just a horse racing company anymore. It’s a gaming and real estate juggernaut that happens to own the most famous dirt track in the world.
Is the CHDN Stock Ticker Telling the Whole Story?
Kinda. But also, no.
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When you pull up a Churchill Downs stock quote, you see a market cap hovering around $7.5 billion. That’s a lot of horse feed. But the real engine under the hood is their "Historical Racing Machines" (HRMs). These things look like slot machines, act like slot machines, but technically determine winners based on the results of past horse races. It's a clever regulatory workaround that has turned their properties in Kentucky and Virginia into absolute cash cows.
In the third quarter of 2025, the company pulled in a record $683 million in revenue. That’s up 9% from the year before. While their net income took a hit because of a one-time non-cash impairment (basically an accounting adjustment), their "Adjusted EBITDA"—the metric the big wigs actually care about—hit a record $262.3 million.
Jordan Bender over at Citizens recently raised his price target for CHDN to $146. He’s not alone in his optimism. Wells Fargo even slapped it on their "high-conviction" list for the start of 2026.
Why the 2026 Kentucky Derby Matters Differently This Year
We all know the Derby is the "Greatest Two Minutes in Sports." However, for investors, the 2026 Derby is a different beast because of the infrastructure.
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Churchill Downs is currently in the middle of a massive facelift. We're talking nearly $1 billion in capital projects. One project, called "Victory Run," is replacing old, uncovered bleachers with a four-story premium hospitality palace.
They are pivoting hard toward the high-net-worth crowd. Why sell a $20 bleacher seat when you can sell a $5,000 "curated experience"?
- NBC Sports is moving the Kentucky Oaks (the race for fillies the day before the Derby) to primetime for the first time in 2026.
- New Hampshire Expansion: They are dropping $200 million to turn a temporary facility in Salem into the "Rockingham Grand Casino."
- Dividend Growth: They just hiked their dividend for the 15th year in a row. It’s small (about 0.41% yield), but the consistency matters.
The Risks Nobody Likes to Talk About
It’s not all roses and winning tickets.
The horse racing industry is constantly under fire regarding animal safety. Any major scandal at the track can send the stock into a tailspin. Plus, they are carrying a decent amount of debt to fund all these fancy new casinos and grandstands.
Their price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is sitting around 19.6. That’s not "cheap," but for a company that essentially has a monopoly on its brand, many analysts think it's fair.
Honestly, the biggest threat is the consumer. If the economy hits a wall in mid-2026, the first thing people stop doing is betting on ponies and playing "slots" in Virginia.
Actionable Insights for the Savvy Investor
If you're watching the Churchill Downs stock quote and trying to decide your next move, stop looking at the 5-minute chart. It’s noise.
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Instead, keep an eye on the February 25, 2026, earnings call. That’s when management will lay out the final expectations for the Derby season. Analysts are expecting an EPS of about $0.90 for that quarter, but the real meat will be in the guidance for the spring.
Check the "Live and Historical Racing" segment in their financial statements. If that revenue keeps climbing, the company is healthy. If the growth there stalls, the "Victory Run" might be a much slower walk.
Next Steps for Research:
- Verify the ex-dividend dates if you’re looking for that 15-year growth streak; the last payment went out on January 6, 2026.
- Monitor the construction progress at the Salem, New Hampshire site, as that represents their next major revenue "pop."
- Compare the current price against the consensus target of $138.45 to see if the current entry point aligns with your risk tolerance.