Wall Street has a long memory. For years, the stock price of c (Citigroup) felt like a bit of a punchline compared to the meteoric rises of JPMorgan or the steady boringness of Bank of America. It was the "problem child" of the Big Four banks. But honestly? Things have shifted. We’re sitting in January 2026, and the narrative around Citi is looking a whole lot different than it did three years ago.
Jane Fraser just dropped the Q4 2025 results on January 14, and the reaction was... well, mixed. The market is funny like that. Citi beat earnings expectations with an adjusted $1.81 per share, but missed slightly on revenue, pulling in $19.9 billion against a $20.55 billion forecast. The stock took a 4% dip right after the news.
Is that a red flag? Not necessarily.
If you look at the full year, the bank is finally showing the "positive operating leverage" it’s been promising since the restructuring began in 2024. Revenues for 2025 hit $85.2 billion. That’s up 6% year-over-year. For a bank this size, that movement is basically a tectonic shift.
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What’s Actually Driving the Stock Price of C Right Now?
Investors are obsessed with one acronym: ROTCE. Return on Tangible Common Equity. It's the metric that tells you if a bank is actually making money or just shuffling it around.
Last year, Citi’s adjusted ROTCE was 8.8%. Fraser is targeting 10% to 11% for 2026. If they hit that, the current valuation starts to look incredibly cheap. Right now, the stock is trading around $118. Considering the tangible book value is floating around $97, you're paying a premium, but it's nothing like the multiples you see on its peers.
The Transformation Isn't Just a Buzzword
For a long time, "Transformation" was just something the PR team said to keep analysts at bay. But the layoffs were real. The simplification was real. Citi used to have these massive, bloated regional divisions. Now, it’s five interconnected businesses reporting directly to the CEO:
- Services: The crown jewel. It brought in $2.2 billion in net income last quarter.
- Markets: Holding onto a top-3 global position despite a slight revenue dip.
- Banking: Finally seeing a surge in M&A activity as deal-making wakes up.
- Wealth: Growing at 14% year-over-year.
- U.S. Personal Banking: Doubling its returns into the mid-teens.
Wait, there’s more. Fraser told staff in a recent memo that "the bar is raised." She basically said the heavy lifting of the restructuring is 80% done, and now they are focusing on results. They’re even leaning into AI to replace some of those legacy middle-management roles that used to slow everything down.
Why the Market is Still Skittish
If things are so great, why isn't the stock price of c at $150 already? Well, there's a few things. First, the Russia exit. It’s been a headache. They took a $1.1 billion after-tax loss tied to the sale of their Russian operations this past quarter. It’s a "notable item," sure, but investors hate messy balance sheets.
Then there's the regulatory side. The OCC and the Fed haven't fully taken the training wheels off yet. While they did remove Article 17 of a major consent order recently, there’s still work to do on data integrity and risk controls.
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Also, the 10% cap on credit card fees suggested by the current administration? That’s a potential gut punch for the U.S. Personal Banking wing.
The Dividend and Buyback Story
One thing you've gotta give Citi credit for: they aren't stingy with the cash. In 2025, they returned over $17.5 billion to shareholders. That includes $13.25 billion in share repurchases. When a company buys back its own stock at these levels, it’s usually because they think the market is underestimating them.
The quarterly dividend is holding steady at $0.60 per share. With the stock at $118, that’s roughly a 2% yield. Not world-beating, but it's reliable. CFO Mark Mason hinted that they want to do even more buybacks in 2026 as they continue to simplify.
Expert Outlook for 2026
Analysts are starting to come around. The consensus price target was recently bumped to about $131. Some bulls, like those at Simply Wall St, argue the "intrinsic value" could be as high as $156 if the 2026 efficiency targets are met.
The big "if" is the economy. If we hit a "Goldilocks" scenario—growth stays at 2.7% and inflation behaves—Citi is positioned perfectly. If things get rocky, those credit card delinquencies might start to bite.
Your Next Steps with C
If you’re watching the stock price of c and trying to decide your next move, don't just look at the daily tickers. Follow these specific metrics over the next few months to see if the turnaround is truly sticking:
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- Watch the Efficiency Ratio: Management is targeting 60% for 2026. If it stays above 64%, the "transformation" is lagging.
- Check the CET1 Ratio: Currently at 13.2%. This is their safety cushion. As long as this stays 150+ basis points above regulatory requirements, the buybacks will likely continue.
- Monitor NII (Net Interest Income): They’re projecting 5% to 6% growth here for 2026.
- Keep an eye on the Banamex IPO: The separation of their Mexican retail business is a huge piece of the puzzle. Any delays there will likely weigh on the stock price.
Don't buy the hype or the doom-scrolling. Look at the numbers. Citi is no longer the bank that just survives; it’s finally starting to act like a bank that knows how to compete. Whether the market rewards that with a higher multiple is the $200 billion question.