College football is basically a religion in the South and a fever dream everywhere else. When the music for College GameDay hits at 9 a.m. ET, it’s like a starting gun. You’ve probably sat there, coffee in hand, watching Lee Corso pull out a giant mascot head and thought, "There's no way that happens."
Honestly? Week 1 is always the hardest to predict.
The 2025 season opener was special. Heavy. It wasn't just about the spread or the over/under. It was the end of an era in Columbus, Ohio. We saw No. 3 Ohio State hosting No. 1 Texas, a rematch of a playoff semifinal that still had fans on both sides feeling some type of way. But the real story was the desk. This was Lee Corso’s final show. After 38 years, the man who turned sports betting into Saturday morning entertainment was hanging up the headgear.
The Corso Finale: A Perfect Swan Song
Most people expected a sentimental, maybe even distracted, performance from Coach. Instead, he went on an absolute tear.
Corso finished the Week 1 slate with a perfect 6-0 record. Let that sink in. At 90 years old, he had more "juice" than guys half his age. His boldest call? Florida State over No. 8 Alabama. The rest of the desk—Kirk Herbstreit, Desmond Howard, Pat McAfee, and even the "GOAT" Nick Saban—basically laughed it off. Saban, sitting there in his first full season as a permanent analyst, looked almost physically pained picking against the Crimson Tide.
But Corso didn't blink. "Florida State is my school," he said. Simple. Direct. He picked the Noles to win outright as 7-point underdogs, and they delivered a 31-17 statement win.
Then there was the Clemson-LSU game. Clemson was ranked No. 4, playing at home in Death Valley. It’s one of the hardest places to win in the country. Everyone on the panel except Corso went with the home team. Corso looked at the camera and said, "The Tigers beat the Tigers." He had LSU winning the National Championship in his preseason bracket, and he wasn't about to bail in Week 1. LSU took it 17-10 in a defensive slog that made some of us wonder if the "new" explosive offenses were taking the week off.
Breaking Down the Week 1 Logic
Why do the experts miss so often in Week 1? It's the "Transfer Portal Fog."
In 2025, we saw more roster turnover than ever. You can’t just look at last year’s tape. You have to look at who stayed and who got paid. Take the South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech game. Most "sharps" liked the Hokies because of their returning production. But the GameDay crew—led by a very vocal Corso—saw something else: LaNorris Sellers.
Corso called Sellers a "superstar" and a future Heisman candidate. He didn't just pick South Carolina to win; he predicted they’d "win big." Final score: 24-11. The Gamecocks covered the 7-point spread with ease. It turns out, having a dual-threat quarterback who can actually break a tackle matters more than "returning starters" in a scheme that's three years old.
The Big One: Texas vs. Ohio State
The headgear pick was the moment everyone waited for. The crowd in Columbus was deafening. Ohio State fans have a complicated relationship with GameDay, but they showed up for this.
Texas came in as the No. 1 team in the country, led by the Arch Manning era finally being in full swing. Ohio State was the reigning National Champion. It was the 26th time the Buckeyes hosted the show, extending their own record.
Corso’s final pick wasn't a shocker, but the way he did it was. He went with Brutus Buckeye, the same mascot head he wore back in 1996 for his very first headgear pick. It was a full-circle moment.
| Matchup | The "Expert" Consensus | The Result |
|---|---|---|
| Texas at Ohio State | Split (Lean Ohio State) | Ohio State Wins |
| Florida State at Alabama | Alabama (Heavy) | Florida State Upsets |
| LSU at Clemson | Clemson | LSU Wins |
| Notre Dame at Miami | Notre Dame | Miami Upsets |
Miami’s win over Notre Dame (27-24) was another one where the GameDay picks diverged from the betting public. Pat McAfee, who has a knack for picking the "chaos" games, was all over the Hurricanes. He’s often criticized for being too much of a "homer" or a "hype man," but in 2025, he actually finished with one of the best records on the desk.
What Most People Get Wrong About Week 1 Picks
There’s a common trap: overvaluing the "Week 0" performance.
If a team looks like a juggernaut in a Week 0 game against a mid-major, everyone jumps on the bandwagon for Week 1. But the GameDay crew, especially guys like Saban and Herbstreit, look at the "trench depth."
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In the Tennessee vs. Syracuse game, everyone was talking about the Volunteers' new quarterback. But Herbstreit pointed out that Syracuse’s offensive line was basically a revolving door of three-star transfers. He was right. Tennessee didn't just win; they "destroyed" them (as Corso predicted) 45-26.
The lesson? Don't bet on the "flash." Bet on the guys who have to do the heavy lifting in the fourth quarter.
Actionable Insights for Your Next Saturday
If you're looking to tail the College GameDay picks or just want to understand the logic better, here's how to filter the noise:
- Watch the "Guest Picker" bias. Usually, the guest picker is a former athlete or celebrity from the home school. They almost never pick against their team. If they do, take notice. That’s a massive red flag for the home team.
- Follow the "Saban Standard." Nick Saban looks at things differently than McAfee. While Pat is looking for the energy and the crowd impact, Saban is looking at defensive rotation. If Saban says a team "doesn't have the bodies" to keep up, believe him.
- Check the weather in Columbus and State College. It sounds like a cliché, but early September heat in the Midwest is different from the South. It’s humid and gross. Teams from the Pac-12 (well, the former Pac-12) or the Big 12 often gas out in the third quarter of these Big Ten matchups.
- Corso’s "Special" picks. Even though Coach has retired from the full-time desk, his "historical" picks often lean on coaching pedigree. He loves a good "old school" coach.
The 2026 season is already shaping up to be even weirder with the expanded schedules and games in places like Dublin and Rio de Janeiro. But the core of College GameDay remains the same: it’s about the atmosphere, the insanely creative (and sometimes offensive) signs in the background, and that one moment right before noon when the headgear comes out.
Keep an eye on the injury reports coming out of fall camp. Last year, a late scratch for Notre Dame’s secondary was the only reason Miami’s passing attack found a rhythm. If you aren't watching the late-week updates, you're just guessing.
Stop looking at the rankings from three weeks ago. They don't mean anything once the ball is in the air. Focus on the matchups in the trenches and the travel distance for the away team. That’s where the money—and the bragging rights—are actually won.
Get your bets in early, watch the line movement on Friday night, and for heaven's sake, don't pick against a home dog in a night game. It never ends well.