You’ve probably seen the tickers flashing red for Computer Modelling Group (CMG.TO) lately and wondered if the ship is sinking or just recalibrating. Honestly, it's a bit of both. As of January 13, 2026, the stock is sitting around $5.36 CAD, down roughly 2% on the day. That’s a far cry from the $10.96 highs we saw about a year ago.
It's tempting to look at a 50% haircut and run for the hills. But if you're a value hunter or someone who cares about the "plumbing" of the energy sector, the story is way more nuanced than a simple price drop.
Why the Computer Modelling Group Stock Price is Taking a Beating
The market is a fickle beast. It loved CMG when the "energy transition" was the hottest buzzword in Calgary and Houston, but now it’s demanding cold, hard cash flow. In the latest Q2 2026 earnings report (released late 2025), total revenue actually ticked up slightly to $30.2 million. That sounds okay, right?
The problem is under the hood.
Most of that growth came from acquisitions like SeisWare and Bluware, rather than the core business growing on its own. In fact, organic revenue—the stuff CMG builds and sells itself without buying other companies—actually declined by 17%. Investors hate seeing that. It’s like a restaurant staying busy only because they bought the cafe next door, while their own tables are getting emptier.
The Profitability Pinch
- Net Income: Dropped 28% year-over-year to $2.7 million.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): Came in at $0.03, missing what analysts were hoping for.
- Dividends: They’ve been trimmed back to $0.01 per quarter.
If you’re holding this for the fat dividends of yesteryear, you’re likely disappointed. The yield is now hovering around 0.75%. It’s not exactly a "widows and orphans" stock anymore. Management is clearly pivoting. They are hoarding cash to pay for their "CMG 4.0" strategy, which is basically a fancy way of saying they want to be a pure-play software giant rather than a consulting firm.
The "Green" Gamble: Carbon and Hydrogen
Here is where it gets interesting for the long-term thinkers. CMG isn't just about oil anymore. They are the "gold standard" for simulating what happens underground. If you want to shove carbon dioxide into an old salt cavern (Carbon Capture and Storage) or figure out how to pull heat out of the ground for geothermal energy, you basically have to use their software.
In fiscal 2024, about 23% of their software revenue came from these "new energy" projects. That number is growing.
The strategy is sound. Traditional oil companies are using CMG to squeeze every last drop of profit out of existing wells (using their STARS™ and GEM™ simulators), while new energy startups are using them to prove their tech works to regulators. It's a "picks and shovels" play.
Technicals: A Bottom in Sight?
Technical analysts are currently giving CMG mixed signals. On one hand, the stock is showing "buy" signals on short-term moving averages. On the other, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was recently screaming "overbought" before this latest dip.
Basically, the stock is trapped in a range.
There is some solid support at the $5.32 mark. If it breaks below that, we might see it test the 52-week low of $4.68. But if it manages to claw back above $5.60, the narrative could shift back to "recovery mode" pretty quickly.
What Real Experts Are Watching
Vipin Khullar, the new CFO appointed in mid-2025, has a massive job. He needs to integrate these new acquisitions without letting the margins slide further. The "CMG 4.0" plan aims to have 80% of revenue coming from recurring software licenses. We aren't there yet, but they are pushing for it.
The "smart money" is looking at the $100 million credit facility they have tucked away. They are looking to buy more companies. If they pick the right ones, the stock price could rebound. If they overpay for struggling tech, the slide continues.
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Acknowledge the risks. This is a mid-cap tech stock in a volatile energy market. It’s not for the faint of heart. The transition from a services-heavy model to a software-heavy model is always messy.
Actionable Insights for Investors
If you're looking at the computer modelling group stock price and wondering what to do next, here’s the reality:
- Watch the $5.30 Support: If the price holds above this level for a week or more, it suggests the "bloodletting" from the poor Q2 results is finally over.
- Monitor Organic Growth: Don't just look at the total revenue in the next February 2026 earnings report. Look specifically at "organic recurring software revenue." If that doesn't turn positive, the "4.0" strategy is stalling.
- The February 10th Date: Circle February 10, 2026, on your calendar. That’s the next earnings date. The market is expecting an improvement in the second half of the fiscal year due to seasonal contract renewals. If they miss again, expect another leg down.
- Tax-Loss Harvesting: Given the 50% drop over the last year, many Canadian investors might be using this for tax-loss selling, which can create artificial downward pressure that often rebounds in late January and February.
Honestly, CMG is a classic "show me" story right now. The tech is undisputed, but the business transition is in the "awkward teenage years." You've got to decide if you believe in the subsurface simulation dominance enough to wait out the integration pains.
Start by reviewing your portfolio's exposure to the energy-tech sector. If you are already heavy on Canadian energy, adding more CMG might be redundant. However, if you want a play on the infrastructure of carbon capture, this price point is significantly more attractive than it was 12 months ago. Check the 10-day volume trends; a spike in volume without a further price drop often signals that the big institutional sellers are finally done exiting their positions.