The regular season is officially in the rearview mirror, and for fans of about 14 teams, the dream of a Super Bowl has been replaced by the chaotic reality of mock drafts and scouting reports. Honestly, the current NFL draft order is the only thing keeping some fanbases sane right now.
If you're a Las Vegas Raiders fan, you finally have something to celebrate. Sorta. For the first time since the infamous JaMarcus Russell pick in 2007, the Silver and Black have secured the No. 1 overall pick. It wasn't pretty. Losing 14 of your last 15 games rarely is. But with Pete Carroll out and the franchise hitting the reset button under GM John Spytek and minority owner Tom Brady, that top spot is a golden ticket.
How the Top 24 Picks Shake Out
The tiebreakers this year were a total mess. We had four teams finish with a dismal 3-14 record. Usually, that leads to some serious head-scratching, but the Raiders took the "lead" because they played the easiest schedule. Basically, they were the worst of the worst when you account for who they actually played.
- Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
- New York Jets (3-14)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-14)
- Tennessee Titans (3-14)
- New York Giants (4-13)
The Jets aren't exactly crying about being at No. 2, though. They're sitting in a prime spot to grab a franchise-altering player, especially with the quarterback market looking the way it does. Arizona and Tennessee are right behind them, both needing infusions of elite talent after seasons that just fell off the rails.
The Giants at No. 5 is interesting. They won their Week 18 game against Dallas, which actually knocked them out of the running for the top pick. A classic "meaningless win" that might haunt them if a generational talent goes at No. 1.
The Middle of the Pack and Traded Picks
You can't talk about the current NFL draft order without looking at the teams that don't even own their own picks. Trades from years past are coming home to roost.
The Los Angeles Rams are currently slated to pick at No. 13, but that pick actually belongs to them thanks to a deal with the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, the Falcons are left looking at the second round for their first real injection of youth.
Then you have the Cleveland Browns. They're picking at No. 6, but they also have a late first-round pick (No. 24) courtesy of the Jacksonville Jaguars. It’s a weird spot to be in—rebuilding with a top-ten pick while also holding a pick from a team that actually made some noise in the playoffs.
Who Are These Teams Even Looking At?
Everyone is talking about Fernando Mendoza. The Indiana quarterback has seen his stock skyrocket, and most experts think he’s the clear favorite to go to Vegas. But don’t sleep on Dante Moore from Oregon. If the Raiders pass on a QB—which would be bold considering the Geno Smith era is likely over—the Jets at No. 2 will be sprinting to the podium.
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It’s not just about the signal-callers, though. This class is heavy on defensive trench talent.
- David Bailey (Texas Tech) is a name you’ll hear a thousand times. He led the FBS in pressures and sacks.
- Francis Mauigoa (Miami) is the offensive tackle every GM in the top ten is drooling over.
- Rueben Bain Jr. (Miami) is another edge rusher that could disrupt the top five if a team decides they'd rather hit the QB than draft one.
Why Strength of Schedule Matters So Much
A lot of people get confused about why the 3-14 Raiders pick before the 3-14 Titans. It’s all about Strength of Schedule (SOS). In the NFL draft, the "weaker" your opponents were, the higher you pick in a tie. The logic is that if you lost 14 games against a bunch of bad teams, you’re actually worse than a team that lost 14 games against a gauntlet of powerhouses.
The Raiders' SOS sat at .538. The Titans were at .574. That tiny gap is the difference between having the pick of the litter and waiting for three other teams to decide your fate.
What’s Next for the Playoff Teams?
The bottom 24 picks are mostly locked in, but the final eight spots (25-32) are still moving. As teams get bounced from the Divisional Round and the Conference Championships, they’ll slot into those final spots.
If you're a fan of the Seattle Seahawks or Denver Broncos, you're currently looking at the very end of the first round because of your regular-season success. It’s the price you pay for winning.
Actionable Insight for Draft Season:
If you want to stay ahead of the curve, stop looking at "Big Boards" and start looking at team-specific needs paired with the current NFL draft order. The Raiders need a QB and O-line help. The Browns are desperate for a WR who can actually catch a cold. The Ravens need edge depth.
Start tracking the Senior Bowl invites (which were just revealed) and the East-West Shrine Bowl rosters. These are the places where the guys at picks 15-32 prove they belong in the first round. Don't just watch the highlights; look at the snap counts and the PFF grades for run defense, as those are often the best indicators of who will actually translate to the Sunday game.
The draft kicks off April 23 in Pittsburgh. Until then, expect this order to be the most debated list in sports.