If you’ve lived in North Texas for more than five minutes, you know the drill. One day you’re wearing shorts and drinking a ranch water on a patio; the next, you’re scouring the garage for a de-icer because a cold front decided to drop the temperature 40 degrees in three hours. Predicting dallas weather 30 day stretches isn’t just about looking at a thermometer—it’s about understanding the chaotic wrestling match between Gulf moisture and Arctic air.
Right now, as of mid-January 2026, we’re sitting in the thick of it. Today, Saturday, January 17, 2026, started out heavy and grey with a high of 45°F and a biting north wind at 9 mph. Honestly, it feels colder. The "feels like" temperature is hovering around 36°F. If you’re heading out tonight, don't let the "clear" forecast fool you; it’s dropping to a bone-chilling 27°F.
But wait. Tomorrow is Sunday. And because this is Dallas, tomorrow’s high is 60°F.
The 30-Day Outlook: Riding the La Niña Wave
The big story for the next month is the "quick exit" of La Niña. According to the Climate Prediction Center, there’s a 75% chance we transition to ENSO-neutral by March. What does that mean for your backyard? Traditionally, La Niña winters in Texas are warmer and drier. We’ve seen that play out already this year, with New Year’s Day 2026 hitting the lower 70s—about 15 degrees above the historical average.
Looking at the upcoming weeks, the pattern remains volatile but leans mild. Between now and mid-February, expect a few more of these "rollercoaster" weeks. We’re seeing a significant rain chance around Wednesday, January 21, with a 75% probability of precipitation. If you have outdoor plans for that day, cancel them. The humidity is expected to spike to 79%, making it one of those damp, "soak-into-your-bones" kind of days.
Breaking Down the Next Fortnight
- January 18 - 20: A quick warmup followed by increasing clouds. Monday’s high sits at 52°F, but Tuesday brings a 40% chance of rain overnight.
- January 21 - 24: This is our wet window. Highs stay in the low 60s, but moisture from the Gulf will keep things "soupy."
- Late January: Long-range models from Almanac.com suggest a cold snap toward the end of the month. While North Texas usually avoids the "deep freeze" seen in 2021, we are looking at overnight lows consistently hitting the 30s.
Why Your Weather App Is Probably Lying to You
Most people check a 30-day "forecast" on a generic app and see a specific number for three weeks from now. Here’s the truth: nobody knows if it will be exactly 54 degrees on February 10th. Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Fort Worth focus on anomalies—whether we will be wetter or drier than the norm.
The "norm" for Dallas in late January is a high of 58°F and a low of 40°F. However, the record high for this time of year is a staggering 82°F (set back in 1957). The record low? A terrifying 12°F in 1962. When you search for dallas weather 30 day trends, you aren't looking for a daily schedule; you're looking for the probability of an ice storm versus a spring preview.
Surviving the February Transition
February in Dallas is the ultimate "wildcard" month. While the average high climbs to 66°F by the end of the month, February is also the month where we typically see our most significant winter weather impacts. Remember the "sprinkles" and "isolated snow flurries" the NWS mentioned for this morning? That's child's play compared to a true North Texas ice event.
The good news? The current transition toward ENSO-neutral conditions suggests that the chance of a sustained, catastrophic freeze is lower than in a "strong" La Niña or El Niño year. But "lower chance" isn't "zero chance."
The Humidity Factor
Dallas humidity in the winter is weirdly dry until it isn't. Today’s humidity is a crisp 39%, but as Gulf air surges back north next week, we’ll see that number double. This is why the same 55-degree day can feel pleasant one afternoon and miserable the next.
Actionable Prep for the Next 30 Days
Don't just watch the sky; prepare for the swing.
- Water your plants before the freeze: If you see a night like tomorrow (low of 27°F) coming, water your perennial roots today. Moist soil insulates better than dry soil.
- Check the "Wet Day" Probability: February sees the chance of a "wet day" (at least 0.04 inches of rain) rise from 19% to 21%. It’s the slow start to our spring storm season.
- The 3-Day Rule: In Dallas, never trust a forecast beyond 72 hours for specific planning. Use the 30-day outlook to decide when to mulch your garden or schedule a roof repair, but keep your daily "go/no-go" decisions within a three-day window.
Keep an eye on the wind direction. Today's 9 mph north wind is what's keeping us suppressed at 45°F. Once those flags start pointing north—meaning the wind is coming from the southwest like it will tomorrow—you can bet your bottom dollar the temperature is going to skyrocket.
💡 You might also like: BBC and My Wife: Why the British Broadcasting Corporation is Still the Household Gold Standard
Basically, keep a coat in the trunk and a t-shirt underneath it. You're gonna need both.