Week 1 is a mess. Honestly, anyone telling you they have a "perfect" projection for the opening slate is lying to your face. We’re working with old data, preseason "vibes," and coaching changes that haven't even seen the light of a real regular-season snap yet. But we still have to set our lineups. If you’re staring at the defense fantasy rankings week 1 list and wondering why your high-drafted unit looks like a trap, you’re probably right.
The biggest mistake people make in the opener? Drafting for the name on the helmet instead of the guy taking the snaps for the opposition. Fantasy defense is 20% your own talent and 80% how bad the other team's quarterback is.
The High-End Locks You Can't Bench
Sometimes the math is just too simple to ignore. You spent a late-round pick on a "set it and forget it" unit, and in Week 1, some of those actually pay off.
The Denver Broncos are basically the gold standard for the start of the 2025 season. They finished 2024 as the top-scoring unit, and they open up against a Tennessee Titans team that's effectively starting over. Cam Ward is a fun rookie, sure, but a rookie QB making his first NFL start at Mile High is a fantasy manager’s dream. Denver led the league in pressure rate last year, and they’re going to pin their ears back and welcome the kid to the league.
Then you have the Pittsburgh Steelers. They’re heading into MetLife to face a Jets offense that—let’s be real—is a giant question mark. With Justin Fields likely under center and an O-line that’s historically struggled to protect anyone, T.J. Watt is going to have a field day. The Steelers' secondary got a facelift this offseason, and against a limited Jets passing attack, they are a Tier 1 play.
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If you’re the type of manager who waits until the last round to grab a D/ST, this is your time to shine. You aren’t looking for a season-long partner. You’re looking for a one-night stand with a team playing a disaster.
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Arizona Cardinals (vs. New Orleans)
Nobody wants to click the button on the Cardinals' defense. I get it. They weren't exactly the 1985 Bears last year. But look at the New Orleans Saints. They are starting Spencer Rattler. The Saints' offensive line is "fine" at best, and Rattler’s completion percentage in the preseason was... concerning. Arizona added Dalvin Tomlinson and Josh Sweat to the front seven. If you need a high-ceiling play that’s probably sitting on your waiver wire, this is it.
Washington Commanders (vs. NY Giants)
This is the "Russell Wilson Sacks" bet. Wilson has led the league in sacks taken twice in his career for a reason: he holds the ball too long. Dan Quinn is in year two of his defensive overhaul in D.C., and adding Bobby Wagner and Von Miller gives them a veteran floor that didn't exist before. The Giants' offensive line—outside of Andrew Thomas—is still a revolving door. Expect at least four sacks and a couple of forced fumbles here.
Matchups That Are Actually Traps
You might be tempted to play the Dallas Cowboys because they’re the Cowboys. Don't. They’re facing the Philadelphia Eagles in a massive divisional showdown. Not only did Dallas trade away Micah Parsons (which still feels weird to type), but Jalen Hurts and that Eagles offense are a nightmare for fantasy scoring. This game has a high over/under for a reason. You’re looking for a low-scoring slugfest, not a track meet.
Similarly, the Buffalo Bills against the Baltimore Ravens is a stay-away. Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson is great for TV, but it’s a death sentence for your D/ST score. Buffalo’s secondary is banged up, and James Cook is facing a Ravens front that dominates the trenches. You’re better off chasing a mediocre defense with a great matchup than a great defense with a nightmare matchup.
Defensive Tiers for the Opening Slate
To make this easy, I've broken down the defense fantasy rankings week 1 into tiers based on who has the best path to double-digit points.
Tier 1: The Must-Starts
- Denver Broncos (vs. TEN): The rookie QB factor is just too strong.
- Pittsburgh Steelers (@ NYJ): T.J. Watt against a shaky Jets line.
- Minnesota Vikings (@ CHI): They were a Top 5 unit last year and Caleb Williams is still figuring out the NFL speed.
Tier 2: The Solid Plays
- Seattle Seahawks (vs. SF): Mike Macdonald has this unit playing like bullies.
- Philadelphia Eagles (vs. DAL): Home favorites against a Parsons-less Dallas team.
- Green Bay Packers (vs. DET): They added Micah Parsons (yes, really) and Detroit's line is missing Frank Ragnow.
Tier 3: The "Stream if You Must" Group
- Washington Commanders (vs. NYG): A bet on sacks and the "Russ" factor.
- Arizona Cardinals (@ NO): Targeting the Spencer Rattler experience.
- Cincinnati Bengals (@ CLE): Joe Flacco is a turnover machine, even if the Bengals' secondary is shaky.
The Logic Behind the Numbers
Why do we care about the "Expected Points Added" (EPA) or pressure rates? Because in Week 1, offensive timing is usually off. Dropped passes, missed blocks, and miscommunications are at an all-time high.
A team like the Los Angeles Rams might not have the biggest names anymore, but they have Jared Verse and Kobie Turner. They’re facing a Houston Texans team with an offensive line that PFF ranked dead last entering the season. C.J. Stroud is a star, but he can't throw from his back. If you can't get Denver or Pittsburgh, the Rams are a sneaky "sack-heavy" play that could easily finish as a top-five unit this week.
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Final Tactics for Your Roster
Stop holding two defenses. Unless you have a truly elite unit like Denver or Seattle, there is no reason to waste a bench spot. Use that spot for a high-upside running back like Jaydon Blue or a rookie receiver.
If you are streaming, look ahead to Week 2 now. The Cardinals, for instance, have a decent run of games (CAR, SF, SEA) after their opener. If they look good against the Saints, you might have just found your starter for the first month of the season.
Check the weather reports on Sunday morning. A rainy, windy afternoon in Chicago or Buffalo changes everything. Low-scoring games are the lifeblood of fantasy defense. If the forecast calls for 20mph winds, that's your cue to pivot to whatever defense is playing in those conditions.
Actions You Should Take Now
- Drop your backup kicker or 6th-string WR and grab the Arizona Cardinals or Washington Commanders if they are available and you have a bad matchup.
- Verify your league's scoring settings. Does your league penalize heavily for yards allowed, or is it all about "big plays" (sacks/turnovers)? If it's the latter, prioritize the Rams or Steelers.
- Monitor the injury report for offensive linemen. If a starting center or left tackle is ruled out on Friday, that's your signal to target the opposing defense immediately.