If you’re a fan of either of these teams, you probably still have a bit of a hangover from last year. Remember that 31-7 blowout in the Wild Card round? It wasn't pretty. The Buffalo Bills basically treated the Denver Broncos like a high school JV squad in Orchard Park, racking up 210 rushing yards and making life a living nightmare for Bo Nix.
But things are weirdly different now. We’re heading into a Divisional Round rematch on Saturday, January 17, 2026, and the scenery has completely flipped. This time, the game is at Empower Field at Mile High. Denver isn't some scrappy number seven seed just happy to be there; they're the AFC’s number one seed with 14 wins.
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Honestly, it’s one of the most fascinating "revenge" scripts we’ve seen in years.
The Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Evolution
Most people are still looking at the 2025 Wild Card stats and thinking Josh Allen is just going to steamroll this defense again. That might be a mistake. Last year, the Bills defense forced Nix into a 59.1% completion rate and basically dared him to beat them. He couldn't. He was a rookie.
Fast forward to the 2025-2026 regular season, and Nix has kind of turned into a late-game wizard. He led the NFL with seven game-winning drives this year. Think about that. Seven times, when the Broncos were staring at a loss, Nix figured it out. He’s much more comfortable in Sean Payton’s system now. He isn't just dumping it off; he’s hitting Troy Franklin and Courtland Sutton in stride.
The Broncos defense is the real story, though. They finished the 2025 season with 68 sacks. That’s the best in the league. Nik Bonitto has turned into an absolute terror on the edge with 14 sacks of his own. If you’re Buffalo, you’re looking at a Denver front that features four different players with seven or more sacks. That's a lot of pressure for a banged-up Josh Allen to handle.
Why Josh Allen is still the X-Factor
You can't talk about Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills without mentioning number 17. Even when he’s "sore," as Sean McDermott put it earlier this week, Allen is a tank. He’s dealing with foot, knee, and finger issues right now, yet he still managed to drag the Bills past Jacksonville last week.
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Allen’s rushing stats are basically glitched. He has 79 career rushing touchdowns. Only 22 running backs in the entire history of the NFL have more than him. When it’s 4th and 1 and the Bills go for that "Tush Push" or a designed sweep, it almost doesn’t matter if the defense knows it’s coming.
But here is the catch: Buffalo’s receiving corps is hurting. Losing Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to ACL tears is a massive blow. They’re going to rely heavily on Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and Curtis Samuel. If Pat Surtain II erases Shakir, Allen has to play "hero ball," and that’s when the Denver pass rush starts licking its chops.
What Most People Get Wrong About This Matchup
The narrative is that Buffalo "owns" Denver because of the 27-20-1 all-time record and that recent playoff win. But Mile High is a different beast in January. The altitude is real, and the Broncos haven't hosted a home playoff game since the 2015 AFC Championship. That was the Peyton Manning era. The energy in that stadium is going to be suffocating.
Another thing? The run defense disparity.
- Denver: 2nd best rush defense in the NFL (91 yards allowed per game).
- Buffalo: 28th in rushing yards allowed.
If Sean Payton is smart—and he usually is—he’s going to feed RJ Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin until the Bills prove they can stop it. Harvey has been a revelation since taking over for J.K. Dobbins in Week 11, racking up 12 touchdowns. If Denver can keep Josh Allen on the sideline by running the ball 35 times, the Bills are in trouble.
The Betting Angle and Reality
The Bills are the 6th seed, but they’ve won their last few games with a gritty, "find a way" mentality. They’re 3-1 in Allen’s career starts against the league’s sack leader. He knows how to handle the heat. But he’s taking way more hits this year—40 sacks in the regular season compared to just 14 last year.
The Broncos don’t need to score 35 points to win. They haven’t scored more than 20 in their last three games, yet they went 2-1 in that stretch. They win ugly. They win with defense. They win by letting Bo Nix make one or two big plays in the fourth quarter.
Actionable Insights for Saturday
If you're watching this game or tracking it for your fantasy playoff leagues, keep an eye on these three specific things:
- The First 15 Minutes: Last year, Denver actually scored first with a 43-yard bomb to Troy Franklin. Then they disappeared. If Denver can jump out to a 10-0 lead at home, the crowd will make it nearly impossible for Buffalo to communicate at the line.
- Josh Allen’s Mobility: Watch how he moves on that first 3rd down. If he’s hesitant to tuck it and run because of the knee/foot injuries, the Bills' offense loses 40% of its threat.
- The Turnover Battle: Denver is -3 in turnover differential this year, which is surprising for a 14-win team. If they give Allen short fields, the 14-win season ends on Saturday.
The winner moves on to the AFC Championship to face either New England or Houston. For Denver, it’s about proving the "new era" under Sean Payton is legitimate. For Buffalo, it’s about one more miracle run for a core that has been through everything together.
Grab your tickets or settle into your couch by 4:30 pm ET on CBS. This isn't going to be the 31-7 blowout we saw last year. It's going to be a 60-minute fistfight in the thin air.