Football is a game of inches. You hear that all the time. But on September 14, 2025, it was a game of "leverage." If you weren't watching the Denver Broncos vs Colts matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium, you missed one of the most bizarre endings in recent memory. A 60-yard field goal fell short. The Broncos celebrated. Then, the yellow flag came out.
Dondrea Tillman was flagged for "leverage" for jumping over the line. It gave Indy 15 yards and a second life. Spencer Shrader didn't miss twice. He nailed a 45-yarder as time expired, and just like that, the Colts walked away with a 29-28 win.
It was a gut punch for Denver. Bo Nix had played a clean game, throwing three touchdowns in the first half alone. But stats don't always tell the story of how a game feels when you're watching the clock bleed out. The Colts stayed patient. Jonathan Taylor basically turned into a human battering ram, carrying the ball 25 times for 165 yards. He broke Eric Dickerson’s franchise record for 100-yard games that afternoon. It was vintage, gritty, and frankly, a little exhausting to watch if you were a Denver fan.
Why the Denver Broncos vs Colts Rivalry Still Stings
The history here is deep. Like, weirdly deep. It’s not just two AFC teams meeting every few years; it’s a decades-long soap opera. You’ve got the John Elway trade in 1983 where he basically refused to play for the Baltimore Colts. Then, of course, the Peyton Manning saga.
Manning spent 14 years in Indy, won a ring, got hurt, and then the Colts drafted Andrew Luck. Denver picked up the pieces and Manning led them to two Super Bowls. It’s the kind of crossover that makes every game between these two feel personal.
Honestly, the Colts have had Denver's number lately. Even in the postseason, Indianapolis is 7-0 against the Broncos. That is a wild stat. Think about all the great Denver teams over the years. None of them could solve the Indy puzzle when it mattered most.
The Quarterback Carousel: Nix vs. Jones
In 2025, the narrative shifted to the new guys. Bo Nix has been the "steady hand" for Sean Payton’s offense. He finished that Week 2 game 22-of-30 for 206 yards. He looked sharp. He found Troy Franklin for a touchdown, and for a while, it seemed like the Broncos had finally moved past the post-Manning slump.
On the other side, Daniel Jones was under center for the Colts. He wasn't spectacular—316 yards, one touchdown—but he did enough. He stayed in the pocket, took some big hits, and kept the chains moving when the run game needed a breather.
The match player stats from that game show a weirdly balanced struggle:
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- Denver: 28 points, 3 total touchdowns (all passing).
- Indy: 29 points, focus on ground control and field goals.
The Broncos' defense, led by Pat Surtain II and Alex Singleton, played well enough to win. They really did. But they couldn't get off the field on that final drive. Taylor just kept churning. 4 yards. 10 yards. 2 yards. It was death by a thousand cuts.
The Playoff Factor and What Most People Get Wrong
People think because these teams aren't in the same division (AFC West vs. AFC South), the rivalry doesn't matter. They're wrong. These games often decide the "middle class" of the AFC. They are the tiebreakers that determine who gets a Wild Card spot and who's watching the playoffs from the couch.
Take the 2024 season. Denver actually beat Indy 31-13 in December. It was a dominant performance. But then the Colts come back in 2025 and steal one with a penalty. It’s a back-and-forth that keeps both fan bases on edge.
Recent trends since 2021:
- Colts lead the series 33-23 all-time.
- The scoring average is usually tight: Denver around 20.5, Indy around 22.6.
- Denver has only won one of the last five meetings.
What to Watch for in 2026
Moving forward, the focus is on depth. The Broncos have been leaning heavily on J.K. Dobbins and their young receiving corps. But they need to fix the "discipline" issues that cost them that Week 2 heartbreaker. You can't give away 15 yards on a missed field goal. You just can't.
The Colts, meanwhile, are betting the house on their offensive line. When that unit is healthy, Jonathan Taylor is unstoppable. If Daniel Jones can just be a "game manager plus," they’re a problem for anyone in the AFC.
If you're looking at the next matchup, pay attention to the turnover margin. In the September 2025 game, Denver lost the turnover battle 1-0. Cam Bynum’s interception inside the 10-yard line was just as big as the "leverage" penalty. It took points off the board for Denver and shifted the momentum when the Broncos were looking to pull away.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts:
- Watch the Trench Battle: In Denver Broncos vs Colts games, the winner is almost always the team that wins the rushing battle. Denver struggled to stop Taylor in the fourth quarter.
- Discipline Over Talent: Denver had more "explosive" plays in their last meeting, but 4 penalties on a single drive can sink a team.
- Kicking Matters: Spencer Shrader and Wil Lutz are high-volume kickers in this series. With both teams playing "bend-but-don't-break" defense, the game usually comes down to three points.
- Check the Injury Report: Both teams have struggled with secondary depth. If Surtain or Franklin is out, the game plan changes entirely.
Keep an eye on the AFC standings as the 2026 season progresses. These two teams are currently hovering in that "contender" bracket, and their next meeting will likely have massive implications for the postseason seeding. Check the latest team injury reports at least 48 hours before kickoff to see if the key playmakers like Taylor or Nix are at 100 percent.