If you’ve been scrolling through news feeds lately wondering did Dave McCormick win in PA, the short answer is a resounding yes. But man, it was a wild ride getting to that certainty. We aren't just talking about a standard election night "too close to call" situation. This was a marathon of legal battles, a statewide recount, and weeks of nail-biting uncertainty that kept Pennsylvania—and the rest of the country—on edge long after the polls closed in November 2024.
Dave McCormick, the Republican challenger and former hedge fund CEO, didn't just win; he pulled off what many political junkies considered a massive upset. He unseated Bob Casey Jr., a three-term Democratic staple in Pennsylvania politics whose family name is basically synonymous with the Keystone State.
The Final Numbers That Sealed the Deal
Honestly, the margins were razor-thin. When all the dust finally settled and the lawyers went home, the vote count looked like this:
- Dave McCormick (R): 3,399,295 votes (48.82%)
- Bob Casey Jr. (D): 3,384,180 votes (48.60%)
That is a difference of just about 15,000 votes out of nearly 7 million cast. To put that in perspective, that’s about enough people to fill a minor league baseball stadium. Because the gap was less than 0.5%, it triggered an automatic statewide recount under Pennsylvania law.
Why the Recount Matters (and Why it Didn't)
Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Al Schmidt officially ordered the recount on November 13, 2024. Recounts in Pennsylvania are famous for being expensive—costing taxpayers over $1 million—but they rarely change the final outcome. In fact, historical data from groups like FairVote shows that reversals only really happen when the initial margin is under 0.06%. McCormick’s lead was about 0.24%, which is why his team called the recount a "waste of time," while Casey’s camp insisted on "counting every legal vote."
The Tipping Point: Concession and Lawsuits
For about two weeks, Bob Casey refused to concede. It got kinda heated. Republicans were filing lawsuits left and right, specifically targeting how counties were handling undated or misdated mail-in ballots. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court eventually had to step in and tell counties not to count those disputed ballots, which was a huge win for the McCormick campaign.
Then, on November 21, 2024, the saga hit its finale. Bob Casey released a video acknowledging that his path to victory had vanished. He called McCormick to congratulate him, and just like that, the recount was called off.
What actually changed the game?
Basically, McCormick won by dominating the "T"—the rural middle parts of the state—and cutting into Democratic margins in the suburbs. He was also the only Republican challenger in the 2024 cycle to flip a Senate seat in a state that Donald Trump also won. That’s a pretty specific flex.
Why This Win Changed the Senate
You’ve probably heard people talking about the "balance of power." McCormick’s victory was a cornerstone of the Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate. By defeating Casey, Republicans didn't just get a seat; they removed a seasoned incumbent who had never lost a general election in his entire career.
McCormick was officially sworn into office on January 3, 2025. He now serves alongside John Fetterman, making Pennsylvania one of those rare states with a "split" Senate delegation—one Republican and one Democrat.
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Misconceptions People Still Have
- "The recount changed the winner" – Nope. The recount confirmed the original lead. It was actually stopped early because Casey conceded once it became clear the math wasn't moving in his favor.
- "It was a blowout" – Not even close. It was the closest Senate race in Pennsylvania since the 17th Amendment was passed.
- "McCormick is from Connecticut" – This was the biggest attack against him during the campaign. While he did spend years living there while running Bridgewater Associates, he eventually moved back to Pittsburgh, bought a home, and successfully shook off the "carpetbagger" label that sank Mehmet Oz two years prior.
What’s Next for Pennsylvania?
Now that Dave McCormick is settled into his Senate seat, the focus shifts to how he’ll actually legislate. He’s positioned himself as a "national security conservative," focusing on things like China, inflation, and energy independence.
If you're keeping tabs on PA politics, the big thing to watch now is how the "McCormick Model"—a mix of heavy self-funding and aggressive rural outreach—gets copied by other candidates in 2026.
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Actionable Next Steps:
- Check the official Pennsylvania Department of State website if you want to see the granular, precinct-level data from the 2024 results.
- Look up the current Senate committee assignments for McCormick to see which issues (like the Armed Services or Finance committees) he's actually influencing in D.C.
- Keep an eye on the 2026 gubernatorial and legislative races in PA, as the state remains the ultimate 50/50 battleground.