Honestly, nobody expected the New England Patriots to be sitting at 14-3 right now. After the slog that was the 2024 season, the Foxborough vibe was basically "let’s just hope the rookie doesn't get broken." But here we are in January 2026, and Drake Maye isn't just surviving—he’s currently neck-and-neck with Matthew Stafford for the NFL MVP award. It's wild.
The jump Maye made from his rookie year to this 2025 campaign is the kind of thing people usually only see in video games. Or, you know, with Peyton Manning back in 1999.
The Drake Maye Leap: By the Numbers
If you look at the raw stats, it’s almost hard to believe it’s the same guy who was taking four sacks a game against the Texans a year ago. Maye finished this regular season with a 72% completion rate. That isn't just good; it’s actually the highest mark in the Next Gen Stats era (which goes back to 2016). He’s out here throwing into tight windows with a defender within a yard—something he did on 17 different completions this year—and still making it look easy.
His total EPA (Expected Points Added) on passes hit +203.1. To put that in perspective, the only other guy to cross the +200 mark in the last several years was Patrick Mahomes in his breakout 2018 season.
Maye is effectively a "completion machine" right now. But it’s not just dinks and dunks. He’s leading the league with 112 downfield completions. He’s basically combined the arm strength of a young Justin Herbert with the pocket movement of a guy who’s been in the league for a decade.
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Why Stafford is the Only One in His Way
It’s a two-horse race for MVP, and Matthew Stafford is the old guard refusing to let go. At 37, Stafford just had arguably his best season ever, which is nuts considering he’s been in the league for 17 years. While Maye has the efficiency edge, Stafford put up a massive 46 passing touchdowns. That ties him for 7th all-time in a single season.
The debate is basically this: Do you value the high-volume scoring machine in LA, or the hyper-efficient turnaround artist in New England?
Stafford is operating in a Sean McVay offense that is just humming. He’s got Puka Nacua and Davante Adams out there making life easy, but Stafford is still the one taking the hits. He was knocked down 49 times this year—more than Maye—yet he only took 22 sacks. That tells you everything you need to know about his veteran savvy. He knows exactly when to get rid of the ball to avoid the negative play, even if it means eating a shoulder to the chest.
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Comparing the Supporting Cast
A lot of the Pro-Maye crowd points to the fact that he’s doing this with a roster that was ranked 30th in skill players before the season started. Sure, Stefon Diggs joined the squad, but he’s been playing through the effects of that 2024 surgery and only taking about 60% of the snaps.
- New England's O-Line: They actually jumped from 31st in efficiency to 4th this year. Drafting Will Campbell at left tackle was a masterstroke.
- The Rams' Weapons: Stafford has the #1 ranked receiver room per PFF. Between Nacua and Adams, he’s throwing to open windows more often than Maye.
- The "Vrabel Factor": You can't talk about Maye without mentioning Mike Vrabel. The coaching change gave this team a backbone. The defense, which held the Chargers to just 3 points in the playoffs recently, has given Maye the margin for error he never had under the previous regime.
What Most People Get Wrong About Maye’s Game
There’s this narrative that Maye is just a "toolsy" guy who got lucky with a few deep shots. That’s just wrong. If you dive into his pressure splits, he’s actually the third-most efficient quarterback in the league against the blitz. Only Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson were better this year.
Last year, he looked like a deer in headlights when teams sent extra heat. This year? He has a 120.0 passer rating against the blitz. He’s developed this weirdly calm internal clock where he waits for the secondary option to clear the zone before zipping it in. It's "Robo-QB" stuff, as some scouts called him, but with a lot more soul and scrambling ability.
Speaking of scrambling, that’s the one thing Stafford just doesn't do anymore. Maye put up 450 rushing yards this season. That’s a massive hidden value. When a play breaks down, Maye turns a 3-yard loss into a 12-yard gain. Stafford, with his back issues, is basically a statue—a very accurate, legendary statue, but a statue nonetheless.
What Happens Next
The MVP vote is going to be incredibly close. If Maye wins, he’ll be one of the youngest ever to do it. If Stafford wins, it feels like a "lifetime achievement" award for a guy who finally got the respect he deserved at age 37.
For the Patriots, the focus shifts immediately to the AFC Championship game. The goal isn't just regular-season awards; it's the Lombardi. To get there, Maye has to keep his sack percentage down. He still takes a few too many (47 on the season compared to Stafford's 22), mostly because he's trying to play "hero ball" and extend plays past the 3-second mark.
If you're watching Maye in the postseason, keep an eye on his time-to-throw. When he keeps it under 2.5 seconds, his passer rating is 111.9. When he holds it longer, it drops to 83.7. That is the final piece of the puzzle. If he learns to take the "check down" more consistently, the rest of the league is in serious trouble for the next decade.
Keep a close eye on the offensive line's health heading into the next round. If Will Campbell can keep the blindside clean, Maye has the downfield accuracy to pick apart any secondary left in the bracket. The era of the "toolsy project" is over; the Drake Maye era is officially here.