In 2020, something shifted in how Americans vote. It wasn't just a small change. It was a total overhaul of the traditional "Tuesday at the polls" culture. By the time the sun came up on November 3, 2020, over 100 million people had already cast their ballots. Think about that. That's more than 70% of the entire 2016 turnout, finished before Election Day even started.
People were standing in line for hours in the rain. They were drop-boxing envelopes while wearing surgical masks. It was a wild, high-stakes moment in American history that basically rewrote the rules for every election since. Honestly, if you want to understand why current elections feel so different, you've got to look at the early vote total 2020 data.
The Massive Scale of the 2020 Early Vote
The final numbers were staggering. According to the U.S. Elections Project, run by Professor Michael McDonald at the University of Florida, the early vote total 2020 hit 101,453,111 ballots. That is a massive jump from 2016, where only about 47 million people voted early. We're talking about a doubling of the early electorate.
Specifically, about 65.6 million of those were mail-in ballots. Another 35.8 million were cast in person. The pandemic obviously pushed people toward mail-in options, but the intensity was about more than just germs. It was about a deeply polarized country where everyone felt like they had to get their "receipt" as early as possible.
In states like Texas, the early vote was so high that it actually surpassed the state's total 2016 turnout before Election Day even arrived. It was 108% of their 2016 total. That’s just bananas when you think about it.
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Breaking Down the Party Split
There’s a lot of talk about who "won" the early vote. It’s kinda complicated because not every state tracks party registration for ballots. But in the 20 states that do, the data was pretty clear.
Registered Democrats accounted for about 44.8% of the early votes. Republicans sat at roughly 30.5%. Independents or "no party affiliation" voters made up the remaining 24%. This created that famous "blue shift" or "red mirage" effect on election night. Because Democrats voted early by mail in such high numbers, and those ballots often took longer to count, it looked like Trump was leading in places like Pennsylvania early on, only for the mail-in totals to flip the script days later.
Why 2020 Changed Everything for 2024 and 2026
If you look at the 2024 numbers, or even the 2022 midterms, the early vote total 2020 remains the gold standard for high-participation cycles. While the "COVID effect" has faded, the habit hasn't. People realized they like voting on a Saturday afternoon instead of rushing before work on a Tuesday.
- In-person early voting has become the new normal for many Republicans who were previously told to wait until Election Day.
- Mail-in ballot infrastructure was permanently upgraded in almost every swing state.
- Voter behavior shifted: the "high propensity" voters now almost always lock their votes in weeks in advance.
The 2020 cycle showed that when you make it easier to vote, people actually show up. The national turnout rate was 66.6%, the highest since 1900. It turns out that when you have 101 million votes in the bank before the first poll opens on Tuesday, the entire campaign strategy has to change. You aren't "getting out the vote" in November; you're doing it in September.
Misconceptions About the Early Totals
One thing people get wrong is thinking the early vote is a perfect predictor. It isn't. In 2020, the early vote showed a massive Democratic lead, but the Election Day turnout for Republicans was also record-breaking.
Trump ended up with over 74 million votes total—the second-most in history at the time—largely because his base showed up in person on November 3rd. You can't just look at the early vote total 2020 and assume the outcome. It’s only one half of the puzzle.
Actionable Takeaways for Following Election Data
If you’re tracking early voting in the current 2026 cycle or looking back at the 2020 records to find patterns, here is what you should actually watch:
- Look at the "Return Rate," not just the raw numbers. If 1 million ballots are sent out but only 200,000 are back, that’s a different story than 500,000 sent and 400,000 back.
- Watch the "New Voter" metric. The 2020 data showed that a significant chunk of early voters hadn't voted in 2016. That’s where the real surprises happen.
- Check the "In-Person" vs. "Mail" split. This tells you about the enthusiasm of the different bases. If Republicans are surging in-person early, it suggests they’ve moved past the "only vote on Tuesday" mindset.
The early vote total 2020 wasn't just a fluke of the pandemic. It was a structural shift in American democracy. We’ve moved from a "Voting Day" to a "Voting Month," and the 101 million people who cast those ballots four years ago were the ones who led the charge. Understanding those numbers is the only way to make sense of the modern political map.
Keep an eye on the state-level dashboards—like those from the University of Florida’s Election Lab—to see if the current totals are keeping pace with that 2020 high-water mark. That comparison usually tells the real story of the election long before the pundits start talking.