Rugby matches aren't usually won by 17-year-olds or settled by secret lists of 40 video clips, but then again, England vs Australia rugby hasn't exactly been "usual" lately. Most fans look at the scoreboard and see a rivalry that ebbs and flows, yet if you dig into the dirt of the Allianz Stadium turf from the 2024 and 2025 Autumn series, you find a narrative that’s way more chaotic. It’s a story of "gamesmanship" and last-gasp heartbreaks that would make a scriptwriter blush.
Honestly, the 2024 clash was probably the peak of the madness. England thought they had it. Maro Itoje had just crashed over in the 78th minute to put them 37-35 up. The Twickenham crowd was basically already in the pub celebrating. Then, Max Jorgensen happened. The 20-year-old replacement sprinted clear in the final play to snatch a 42-37 win for the Wallabies. It was Joe Schmidt’s first real "statement" win, and it left Steve Borthwick looking like he’d just watched his house burn down.
Why the Ella-Mobbs Trophy feels different now
For a long time, England dominated this fixture. They had an eight-game winning streak between 2016 and 2022. But that dominance has evaporated. The 2025 match, where England finally got a bit of revenge with a 25-7 win, showed that the gap has closed, even if the scoreline looked somewhat comfortable on paper.
What’s interesting is how the coaches are playing the media as much as the players are playing the ball. Before the November 2025 game, a report leaked that Borthwick had sent 40 clips of "illegal" Australian ruck entries to referee Nika Amashukeli. Joe Schmidt was absolutely fuming. He called it "gamesmanship." He pointed out that Australia had made 2,500 ruck entries that year with barely any cards.
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It worked, though. Or at least, it seemed to. Australia were pinged repeatedly in the first 20 minutes of that 2025 game.
The youth explosion in the backrow
If you want to understand where England vs Australia rugby is heading, you have to look at the "blonde explosion" that is Henry Pollock. In that 2025 victory, Pollock came off the bench and basically changed the temperature of the room. He scored a solo try that was pure instinct, swooping on a loose ball and burning the Australian cover.
On the other side, you’ve got Fraser McReight. Borthwick openly admitted that McReight "stole too many balls" from England. The guy is a vacuum at the breakdown. Even when Australia lose, McReight is usually the reason they stay in the fight as long as they do.
The battle between these two types of flankers—the explosive athlete like Pollock and the clinical thief like McReight—is the new blueprint for this rivalry.
Breaking down the tactical "Dark Arts"
Rugby purists love to talk about the scrum, but this rivalry is currently being won and lost at the breakdown and the "Bomb Squad" bench usage. In 2025, England’s replacements—Luke Cowan-Dickie, Henry Pollock, and Alex Mitchell—didn't just finish the game; they destroyed it.
- England's Rolling Maul: This remains their primary weapon. Two of their four tries in the 25-7 win came directly from lineout drives.
- Australia’s Offloading Game: When the Wallabies are "on," they play a brand of rugby that England struggles to track. In 2024, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii (the former league star) made his debut and immediately started flicking offloads that bypassed the English rush defense.
- The Kicking Duel: Marcus Smith vs Noah Lolesio. Smith wants to run everything, but Borthwick has clearly pulled the reins a bit, forcing a more territorial game.
What the history books don't tell you
Most people remember the 2003 World Cup Final. Jonny Wilkinson’s drop goal is the "Forever Image." But the real history of England vs Australia rugby is a ledger of lopsided scores that eventually leveled out.
Back in 1998, Australia beat England 76-0. It was the "Tour from Hell." England sent a weakened squad and got absolutely slaughtered in Brisbane. Fast forward to the modern era, and the overall head-to-head is remarkably tight. Out of 57 matches, England has 29 wins and Australia has 27. One draw. It is arguably the most competitive "traditional" rivalry outside of the Bledisloe Cup.
The Suaalii Factor
We have to talk about Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii. His move from Rugby League to Union was the biggest story in Australian sport for years. His first touch in international rugby was against England in 2024. He looked like he’d been playing the 15-man code his whole life.
His presence forces England to change their defensive spacing. You can't just blitz him because he’s got the height to win the aerial battle and the hands to release a winger while being tackled. He is a glitch in the system that Borthwick hasn't quite figured out how to patch yet.
What's actually at stake for the next meeting?
As we look toward the 2027 World Cup, these matches are about more than just a trophy. Australia is desperately trying to claw back into the top six of the world rankings. If they don't, they risk a "Group of Death" scenario at their home World Cup.
England, meanwhile, is trying to find an identity. Are they a tactical kicking team? Or are they the high-octane side we saw when they put 37 points on the board (and still lost) in 2024?
Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts:
- Watch the Ruck Entry: If you see the referee penalizing the "clearing" player for side entry in the first ten minutes, know that the pre-match "gamesmanship" has worked.
- Monitor the 60-Minute Mark: England’s recent strategy relies heavily on a 6-2 or 5-3 bench split that targets the final quarter. If Australia is within 5 points at the hour mark, they are the favorites because of their superior fitness in transition.
- The Suaalii Shadow: Watch how England’s wingers (like Immanuel Feyi-Waboso) cheat inward when Suaalii has the ball. This leaves the edges vulnerable to cross-field kicks, which the Wallabies are increasingly using.
The rivalry has shifted from a battle of brawn to a high-stakes chess match played at 100 miles per hour. While the 2025 result suggests England has the upper hand, the 2024 "Jorgensen Moment" proves that the Wallabies are never truly buried.
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To stay ahead of the curve on the next match, focus on the squad announcements specifically regarding the bench. If England continues to name "finishers" like Pollock and Mitchell, they are betting on a high-attrition game. If Australia leans into more League converts, expect a game that ignores the structured phases and favors chaos.